Sandhusker........

[Sandhusker]

lousy diversion. i thought you were talking about corn prices and leaving all other factors constant. don't you think if cost of gain is lower competition for the animal would raise prices for feeders of whatever weight?

I think if cost of gain is higher, heavier animals are worth more and lighter animals worth less. However, I think grass is the ultimate decider. Since we're really selling grass in the form of beef, doesn't increased costs of the competing feed stuffs (corn) bode in our favor? The guy that sells calves at weaning might be better off selling them as yearlings, provided of course that he has the grass. If you've got grass, you can pay more for calves because feeders are paying more for animals that they don't have to put a lot of corn into.

Also, consider that corn prices have more effect on the competing meats of chicken and pork.

There's a number of factors that effect beef either way, corn being one, and corn itself spawns it's own pros and cons.

 

[RobertMac]

How does high feed prices increase their bottom line if they don't SELL the feed. It may give them a short term advantage against other feeders but their cost of production is also greatly higher to produce that grain now than 5 years ago and my understanding of the term "bottom line" is PROFIT.

You're the self proclaimed economist...explain what you mean. All of us who are actual producers (who still bother to come back to this site now and then) are interested in how to make tons of money from an armchair quarterback such as yourself with all your experience and insight.

And once again are you trying to tell us that high feed prices are postive for cow/calf producers?

Bill, they do sell the feed ony it is on the hoof. As feed prices go up, the cost of raising hogs and chicken will go up. Tyson has already said poultry prices were going to increase. As the substitutes go up, so will beef. It might be that cattlemen can keep their cattle longer as backgrounders. When only cattle feed goes up in the very short term due to erratic yearly production, your point will be well taken.

We are going to have a longer term trend, especially if corn prices stay high, as it seems they will, for cattlemen to put as much lbs. on that set of hooves as they can before selling. Higher feed prices will mean that cattle are on feed less and on grass more. Feed out will be shortened. It is a long term trend that has started.

The ONE distinction we have in North American beef is a HIGHER priced product that is a quality eating experience. This is created by GRAIN fed beef that is harvested at a younger age.

Yes I have had some very good grass fed beef in various countries but I have also had some real crap. If you think we can compete in the grass fed market against South America especially given the new regualtions with over 30 month animals you are dreaming in technicolor.

Gain on forage can equal gain on grain. The difference is that grain is a store-able feed source, forage is seasonal. At 24 months, I can have a 700+ lb carcass at a much lower cost...and sell it at a premium.

 

[cowzilla]

The days of 450 wht calves worth $800 are likley gone for a while. There will be more bred cow sales in the short term and some bargins to be had.Usually mixed farm opperations will scale back cattle if feed grains show more profit. The big grain farmers stop buying calves ( pushing the market ) and sell that 50,000 bu barley crop . That gives them more time to spend in a more warmer-relaxing place as opposed to freezing to death filling a @#$%@#$ mixing wagon :wink: :lol: :lol:

 

[Kato]

Hey Zilla! :tiphat: How's the corn? Ours is screaming for some hot weather. :help:

We've found over time that we can make money buying feeders much easier when feed costs are high. The reason for that is that the calves off the cows get overdiscounted to cover the extra risk. Also, like Cowzilla says, the grain farmers quit looking to market their cheap grain through calves to bring it's value up. Around here, farmer buyers can really drive the market on light calves when grain is cheap. The temptation to keep overweights waiting for a better market is cut down pretty quick when the feed is high too.

 

[Bill]

But doesn't cheap corn make cheap cows?

:roll: :lol:

 

[Sandhusker]

But doesn't cheap corn make cheap cows?

:roll: :lol:

Ranchers have made such a killing the last 30 years with $2.50 corn, I can't believe they haven't cashed out their multi-million dollars herds and taken an easier life. :roll:

 

[Bill]

But doesn't cheap corn make cheap cows?

:roll: :lol:

Ranchers have made such a killing the last 30 years with $2.50 corn, I can't believe they haven't cashed out their multi-million dollars herds and taken an easier life. :roll:

Well I guess according to you we will then see $2 6 weights and $2000 breds all across the US by fall? :roll:

It looks to me like cowzilla, Kato, don and QUESTION have it figured out.

 

[Sandhusker]

But doesn't cheap corn make cheap cows?

:roll: :lol:

Ranchers have made such a killing the last 30 years with $2.50 corn, I can't believe they haven't cashed out their multi-million dollars herds and taken an easier life. :roll:

Well I guess according to you we will then see $2 6 weights and $2000 breds all across the US by fall? :roll:

It looks to me like cowzilla and Kato have it figured out.

Why not read what I wrote again. I realize I was throwing more than one thing to consider in the same post, but if you ask someone, I'm sure they can interpret for you.