Sell Calves?

[Buckskin]

I have some 2004 calves left. Should I sell before Mar 7? What is the market going to do. Some say down big time and others say not much impact. What do you think Oldtimer? Anybody else have a idea, including our Canadian friends? :???:

 

[Big Muddy rancher]

Calves are quite good up here. I suppose in anticipation of the border opening and the fact that the feedlots are very current. If they drop much it will be mostly the speculator trying to drive the market down. But those "HONEST ORDER BUYERS " wouldn't try that would they. :cowboy:

 

[Anonymous]

I have some 2004 calves left. Should I sell before Mar 7? What is the market going to do. Some say down big time and others say not much impact. What do you think Oldtimer? Anybody else have a idea, including our Canadian friends? :???:

Buckskin- I talked today with a borderline rancher that has bought bulls for years from a very good producer (and friend) in Canada.... This Saskatchewan bull producer is a very open and honest fellow who wanted to know the local feelings and about the prospects of ever getting bulls sold in the states again.....Anyway to make a long story short- he said that they have a lots full of calves up there that could come right now- Fits in with the Canadian governments 2.9% above record high cattle report... Still don't know where the NCBA inspectors went to see no cattle- but he said the big glut will be next year-- Cows that should have been culled 2-3 years ago they are taking calves out of and shooting the cow, because they have no grass or feed to keep them going- - Not calling anyone to test them either- just pushing them off in the nearest coulee for coyote bait....... Anyway he indicates there are a lot of calves....I personally think the prices on calves and feeders will take at least a $10 drop if the border opens- but the way the prices are holding I also think many feel it won't open- too many unanswered questions for Congress or the Courts to allow it........And God forbid if they open it up to cull cows or OTM beef- We'll be back to the $20-30 cull cows again.............

If you want to know names and more, PM me and I'll give them to you so you can contact them, since I've found most Canadians post anonomously on here and some will try to go after you personally if you post something that doesn't fit their outline of the situation........

 

[frenchie]

I have some 2004 calves left. Should I sell before Mar 7? What is the market going to do. Some say down big time and others say not much impact. What do you think Oldtimer? Anybody else have a idea, including our Canadian friends? :???:

Buckskin- I talked today with a borderline rancher that has bought bulls for years from a very good producer (and friend) in Canada.... This Saskatchewan bull producer is a very open and honest fellow who wanted to know about the prospects of ever getting bulls sold in the states again.....Anyway to make a long story short- he said that they have a lot of calves up there that could come right now- but he said the big glut will be next year-- Cows that should have been culled 2-3 years ago they are taking calves out of and shooting the cow, because they have no grass or feed to keep them going- - Not calling anyone to test them either- just pushing them off in the nearest coulee for coyote bait....... Anyway he indicates there are a lot of calves....I personally think the prices on calves and feeders will take at least a $10 drop if the border opens- but the way the prices are holding I also think many feel it won't- too many unanswered questions for Congress or the Courts to allow it........

If you want to know names and more, PM me and I'll give them to you so you can contact them, since I've found most Canadians post anonomously on here and some will try to go after you personally if you post something that doesn't fit their outline of the situation........

tsk tsk oldtimer nobody would do that would they now..We,s all friends here....

Buckskin your guess is as good as mine as to sell or not. good luck.

 

[Anonymous]

I have some 2004 calves left. Should I sell before Mar 7? What is the market going to do. Some say down big time and others say not much impact. What do you think Oldtimer? Anybody else have a idea, including our Canadian friends? :???:

Why not see what Agman has written in the past. There have been several posts that answer your questions much better than OT's lies ever could. Where in the heck did you hear there was a shortage of feed in Canada Oldtimer?

 

[Northern Rancher]

Oldtimer you are quite the guy-most Canadians post anonomously-if it's anonomous how can you tell-and they launch personal attacks-my aren't we the paragon of virtue. Tooo funny.

 

[Bward]

Calf and feeder prices are pretty good now in Canada.... and if the border opens I can't see it having much impact due to the value of the Canadian dollar being so high. There isn't much advantage for the US buyer to come up here and have to pay for all that expensive shipping, and deal with all the rep tape that is going to be involved with crossing the border... not to mention the possible hoards of R-calf protesters that will likely be lining up at border crossings, ready to cause havock. It will be interesting to see how it plays out. It all depends on American buying interest, for those calves are not going to walk across the border and volunteer themselves for a new home.

 

[Aaron]

I agree with Oldtimer for the most part. Probably be steers across the board that take the biggest hit in the US. I too think they will drop $10-15, especially if producers free up the calves that were part of the set-aside program. Don't see a big change in heifer or cow prices, on either side of the border, coming. Since your in Montana, I would suggest you at least sell your steer calves if the US market is good right now.

 

[Big Muddy rancher]

A friend sold some calves in saskatoon on monday for$1.32 on 570 wt streers would that lower the price in the startes with all the red tape to get them there. A few light wt calves sold for $1.50,this is alot better then last fall so I would say the ste aside has helped to slow the marketings. :cowboy:
PS why would you shoot a cow unless she was a subject cancer eye or lump jaw when she would be worth a couple hundred dollars.

Oldtimer why don't you run up to Assinaboia some Wednesday and check out the sale.

 

[Anonymous]

PS why would you shoot a cow unless she was a subject cancer eye or lump jaw when she would be worth a couple hundred dollars.

Oldtimer why don't you run up to Assinaboia some Wednesday and check out the sale.

Big Muddy- I should get up there sometime- but kind of tied to the place for a while...Daughter works out of town 4-5 days a week and I end up playing grandpa- don't think Canada is ready for my grandkids....

Something I was wondering- how many people are calling to have cows tested this last month? It wouldn't be worth $10,000 head if you were the one that had a cow tested that came back positive a week before the border was supposed to open...... Just makes you wonder....

 

[CattleAnnie]

Good morning, OT.

You've got a valid point in your question, but I sure don't know the answer.

However, it did lead me to a question of my own for US producers:

Q. If you discovered one of your cows wobbling around in the pasture, how eager would you (as an American producer and seeing the impact that BSE positive cattle have made on the Canadian cattle industry) be to have that cow tested?

Q. Also, would you (not trying to imply anything untoward, but as a vote of confidence in the USDA BSE testing system) volunteer to send an additional sample from that same cow to an independant lab - say Great Britian?


Just curious.

Take care.

ps. If Canada can handle my rowdy bunch of children, we sure wouldn't flinch at your grandson. We like kids with character. Come on up!

 

[S.S.A.P.]

PS why would you shoot a cow unless she was a subject cancer eye or lump jaw when she would be worth a couple hundred dollars.

Oldtimer why don't you run up to Assinaboia some Wednesday and check out the sale.

Big Muddy- I should get up there sometime- but kind of tied to the place for a while...Daughter works out of town 4-5 days a week and I end up playing grandpa- don't think Canada is ready for my grandkids....

Something I was wondering- how many people are calling to have cows tested this last month? It wouldn't be worth $10,000 head if you were the one that had a cow tested that came back positive a week before the border was supposed to open...... Just makes you wonder....

"Something I was wondering- how many people are calling to have cows tested this last month? It wouldn't be worth $10,000 head if you were the one that had a cow tested that came back positive a week before the border was supposed to open...... Just makes you wonder...

This reasoning could also be applied to the USA .... regaining their Japanese market......... just makes you wonder

 

[Manitoba_Rancher]

Dont think I would shoot a cow unless she had cancer eye or a broken leg. After the financial impact we ve had over the past months, $200 is $200 and helps to pay bills. The US I dont think will see a large price drop. There are American buyers buying cattle up here already and its helping the price but I think these cattle will be fed up here. As for R-calfers blocking the border, If the bull haulers have enough speed, when the R-calfers hit the grill it will feel no more than a bug hitting the windshield! geeze maybe I should hook up the Freightliner to the pot and go haul cattle for a bit. Id love to have some R-calfers in my headlights!
Just hit a higher gear and watch them scatter! :wink:

 

[Clarence]

Some time back Agman posted that if we do not re-gain the Japanese market, when the border opens we will experience a price drop of from $6.50 to $10 cwt. In about 2 weeks we most likely will find out if he is right. Even if the Japanese decide to take our beef it will be a long time before we can export there at the same level as we did before Dec. 2003.

One positive thing I see is that the last two BSE cows found in Canada has not done anything to hurt consumer confidence. If one was found in the US now it would have little effect either.

 

[Anonymous]

Q. If you discovered one of your cows wobbling around in the pasture, how eager would you (as an American producer and seeing the impact that BSE positive cattle have made on the Canadian cattle industry) be to have that cow tested?

Q. Also, would you (not trying to imply anything untoward, but as a vote of confidence in the USDA BSE testing system) volunteer to send an additional sample from that same cow to an independant lab - say Great Britain.

CattleAnnie- I don't know for sure what I'd do- situation hasn't arose yet... I know there has been no push or program locally for testing anything on farm--I don't even know if they are lined up to take samples- I know I probably wouldn't if I had to pay the vet bill and the testing cost- just to have it probably come back rabies.....


I have no problem with USDA using a second lab for retesting positives- Anything that reduces the perception of impropriety.......

 

[Big Muddy rancher]

Oldtimer your wrong again. I have three cows covered up in the stack yard waiting for results they are 9 and 10 yr olds. One silipped on the ice and died one wobbliy on back end and one chronic lump. BSE is our pboblem and we have to deal with it. we exceeded our testing last year and will again this year. :cowboy:

 

[Northern Rancher]

We tested 5 here too-ohh telll leo he can breath again the bull i bought from him tested negative.

 

[Bull Burger]

I think USDA could have handled the border opening a little better by using a number of cattle per week with their starting date. Such as 1000 per week first week, 2000 per week second week, etc. That way any real or perceived "wall" of cattle wouldn't have affected markets much.

Also think the markets have built in pricing for the border opening as much as possible. Heard Johnny Smith say prices could drop 25% on March 7 and later heard it repeated by other auction operators. You wonder what they tell the buyers on their seats on sale day. :?

 

[S.S.A.P.]

Oldtimer- "I know there has been no push or program locally for testing anything on farm--I don't even know if they are lined up to take samples- I know I probably wouldn't if I had to pay the vet bill and the testing cost- just to have it probably come back rabies..... "

As per the USDA site: http://www.aphis.usda.gov/lpa/issues/bse_testing/faq.html

The goal of the program is to test as many cattle from the high-risk population as possible in a 12- to 18-month period. In order to reach as many high-risk cattle as possible, samples will be taken from the farm, slaughter facilities, rendering facilities, livestock auctions, veterinary clinics, and public health laboratories.

The goal of the enhanced surveillance program is to provide consumers, trading partners, and industry increased assurances about animal health, specifically whether BSE exists in the U.S. cattle population and if so, at what level.

A. USDA personnel will collect samples from high-risk cattle and send the samples to an existing network of state and Federal laboratories approved to conduct rapid-testing for BSE.
Samples will be collected from any of the following locations:

State- or federally inspected slaughter establishments
Custom-exempt slaughter establishments
Farms
Rendering facilities
Veterinary diagnostic laboratories
Animal feed slaughter facilities (pet food plants)
Public health laboratories
Veterinary clinics
APHIS needs cooperation from its many partners in this intensive testing program. To reach our goal, it is essential that animals identified as high-risk cattle are reported in a timely fashion so that viable samples can be collected.

To report high-risk animals, call APHIS' toll–free number 1–866–536–7593. You will be connected to the Area Veterinarian-in-Charge and given instructions on how to proceed.

Q. What are high-risk animals?

A. Experience in Europe has shown that testing high-risk cattle is the method most likely to identify BSE if it is present. Therefore, USDA has tailored its testing program to collect the majority of samples from the following categories:

Nonambulatory cattle;
Cattle exhibiting signs of a central nervous system disorder;
Cattle exhibiting other signs that may be associated with BSE, such as emaciation or injury; and
Dead cattle.
USDA personnel will also sample all cattle condemned on ante-mortem inspection by USDA's Food Safety and Inspection Service.


How many "rabid" cows have you had Oldtimer?
Have you contacted the 1-800 to ask if you have to pay the vet and testing?
You must have missed all the media releases about:
The U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has implemented an intensive national testing program for BSE.

 

[S.S.A.P.]

I have some 2004 calves left. Should I sell before Mar 7? What is the market going to do. Some say down big time and others say not much impact. What do you think Oldtimer? Anybody else have a idea, including our Canadian friends? :???:

Buckskin
This won't be a fancy answer - but in any circumstance where a rumoured fall in prices is going to happen, what do alot of folks do? They panic a little (or a lot) and dump or sell more than they would in a stable market. So you have this rumour (all sorts of predictions on how far it will fall, for how long ...), you sell, and quite afew more do. What happens when a bunch of livestock starts trading (over-supply vs normal selling). Prices are going to drop. But how much of the price can be contributed to the influx of cattle (panic selling) suddenly hitting the market and how much can be blamed on the open border ?? Then factor in all the other variables - feedlot capacity/type needed, weather, $ consumers are willing to part with and for what kind of beef, ....etc...etc.

I wish you success in whichever direction you choose.