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Sandhusker

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Agman, "If you followed the corn price advance last year with a $.15 cent stop how could you get filled within $.15 of the high when there were several times before the high was ever attained that had corrections greater than $.15 which would have activated your stop well before the high was attained -just curious. You are not trying to hood wink myself and the other readers are you? Did you think I would not check the price action from last year?

Sounds like you're calling me a lair. Do I need to provide references? If you insist on being such a pompous prick, I'll give you a hint that I'm a technical trader. As the markets work my way, I tighten the stops and watch for convergences of trend lines. That stop was not always .15 - it was tightened to .15. Now go back to your charts and tell me that I'm hoodwinking you.

Agman, "Thanks for finally admitting that you do not know of any protocol issued by Japan that they would accept tested imported beef. You finally got a fact correct; they never issued one. Why do you keep harping about that when you now admit you have no proof of one. Are you just trying to be honery? Were my contacts wrong or were you wrong all along?"

"honery"? Is that a cross between "horney" and "ornery"? :lol: Hey, I'm guilty! :p I would of been wrong had I stated there was protocol. I'll send you a nickel if you can show where I made the purported wrong statement.

My positon is that it is certainly worth enough to us to force them to come up with a protocol.

Agman, "Has our knowledge of BSE not increased since the first case of BSE was discovered? I believe so. According to you we should stay mired in the past and ignore any new findings, is that correct? Should we still keep borders closed for seven years per the original protocol. Now who is looking out for the producer, you or me? I believe I am looking out for producers."

Yes our knowledge of BSE is greater. We have learned more and more that we really don't know much about it. Reader knows more about it than anyone else on this board. Ask her if our true knowledge is any better now.
 

agman

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Sandhusker said:
Agman, "If you followed the corn price advance last year with a $.15 cent stop how could you get filled within $.15 of the high when there were several times before the high was ever attained that had corrections greater than $.15 which would have activated your stop well before the high was attained -just curious. You are not trying to hood wink myself and the other readers are you? Did you think I would not check the price action from last year?

Sounds like you're calling me a lair. Do I need to provide references? If you insist on being such a pompous prick, I'll give you a hint that I'm a technical trader. As the markets work my way, I tighten the stops and watch for convergences of trend lines. That stop was not always .15 - it was tightened to .15. Now go back to your charts and tell me that I'm hoodwinking you.


Agman, "Thanks for finally admitting that you do not know of any protocol issued by Japan that they would accept tested imported beef. You finally got a fact correct; they never issued one. Why do you keep harping about that when you now admit you have no proof of one. Are you just trying to be honery? Were my contacts wrong or were you wrong all along?"

"honery"? Is that a cross between "horney" and "ornery"? :lol: Hey, I'm guilty! :p I would of been wrong had I stated there was protocol. I'll send you a nickel if you can show where I made the purported wrong statement.

My positon is that it is certainly worth enough to us to force them to come up with a protocol.

Agman, "Has our knowledge of BSE not increased since the first case of BSE was discovered? I believe so. According to you we should stay mired in the past and ignore any new findings, is that correct? Should we still keep borders closed for seven years per the original protocol. Now who is looking out for the producer, you or me? I believe I am looking out for producers."

Yes our knowledge of BSE is greater. We have learned more and more that we really don't know much about it. Reader knows more about it than anyone else on this board. Ask her if our true knowledge is any better now.

Your explaination of your corn action is acceptable with me. I just asked a simple question for clarification. Suggestion: read Burton Malchiles book entitled "A Random Walk Down Wallstreet". As a so-called technician his book should interest you.

Your latter comments regarding the lack of a protocol shows you have more wiggle than a worm. You are really hilarious. You keep repeating yourself about tested beef then admit there is no protocol from Japan for tested beef . Now you say you never said there was a protocol when I asked the question. All the while you have said we should test and send it over there. Under what protocol should we have accomplished that fete? You just stuffed yourself as badly as your R-Calf lawyer regarding "low" risk. It is time for you to go out and play in your sandbox again. Give R-Calf's lawyer a call to come and play also, after the beating he took he needs some time to recuperate for the next round.
 

Sandhusker

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I'm glad you accept my corn explanation. I'll sleep much better now.

Creekstone put up a couple of million on the table that said Japan would take tested beef. Have you got a better hint that they wouldn't?

By the way, the "low" risk arguement was not R-CALF's, it was the USDA's. Judge Cebull got plenty of mileage from it. Would you like me to post from the transcripts or do you need to consult one of your contacts?
 

agman

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Sandhusker said:
I'm glad you accept my corn explanation. I'll sleep much better now.

Creekstone put up a couple of million on the table that said Japan would take tested beef. Have you got a better hint that they wouldn't?

By the way, the "low" risk arguement was not R-CALF's, it was the USDA's. Judge Cebull got plenty of mileage from it. Would you like me to post from the transcripts or do you need to consult one of your contacts?

The answer to your first question is yes- no protocol from Japan. Creekstone gambled and they were wrong. That happens in business.

I think you are a bit confused. The USDA did say "low" risk which was rejected by Cebull and R-Calf. The Appellate court saw otherwise with the validity of the USDA using "low" to describe the risk level. Your guys lost big time. They got stuffed on their own argument. I have the full script of the original Montana case.
 
A

Anonymous

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agman said:
smalltime said:
agman are you shure your on the winning side?

"No doubt at all" is my response. Facts will win out everytime over fiction. Have a cool one.

------------------------------------------
CATTLE:

Trend: Short Term Down, Long Term Down



Sentiment: More Supply means lower prices. Regardless of your political leanings, you have to realize that higher supplies mean lower prices. So whether you are a happy member of the NCBA or an upset member of R-CALF, guess what? Your cattle are worth less than they were yesterday. Since slaughter capacity has increased in Canada we will be getting fewer cattle than we did before the border was closed, but that just means we are getting more beef than we were before. That is one of the reasons that boxed beef prices have trended lower for 11 weeks.



I haven’t been bullish cattle for a while anyway, and this just makes it harder for me to be. Feeder cattle will take the biggest hit, partly because they were too high in the first place and partly because feeder cattle will come into the US in greater numbers than live cattle at least in the beginning.



There is still a $12/cwt spread between US and Canadian live cattle prices, but that should narrow as time goes by. I suspect it will be because our price goes down and theirs goes up.



Action: You have to be short until something changes. This is especially true in the FC. Any of my recent recommendations would be working great right now. LC shouldn’t be under as much pressure, but I still don’t like the outlook. Do you realize that Oct 2003 LC futures were at about $72.50 before the border was closed? A conservative approach would be to buy August LC and sell Oct LC.





Schwieterman Marketing, L.L.C.

1616 Kansas Avenue

Garden City, KS 67846
__________________________________

Well Agman is this the WINNING SIDE--Depressed Cattle Prices?
Is this what NCBA and USDA have been pushing so hard for? Or do you still believe the border will have no affect? Or is this just another beancounter thats prognosticating?

I always love it- one Ouija board reader says BUY- the other says SELL-- And neither one give a darn because they sit in their penthouse office and dole out info that they get paid for either if they are right or wrong....And most have never even looked at a cow........All Politics....
 

agman

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Sandhusker said:
I'm glad you accept my corn explanation. I'll sleep much better now.

Creekstone put up a couple of million on the table that said Japan would take tested beef. Have you got a better hint that they wouldn't?

By the way, the "low" risk arguement was not R-CALF's, it was the USDA's. Judge Cebull got plenty of mileage from it. Would you like me to post from the transcripts or do you need to consult one of your contacts?

The answer to your first question is yes- no protocol from Japan. Creekstone gambled and they were wrong. That happens in business.

I think you are a bit confused. The USDA did say "low" risk which was rejected by Cebull and R-Calf. The Appellate court saw otherwise with the validity of the USDA using "low" to describe the risk level. Your guys lost big time. They got stuffed on their own argument. I have the full script of the original Montana case.
 

Sandhusker

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A company the size of Creekstone doesn't take multi-million dollar gambles unless they are pretty certain of a winning bet.

Cebull says "low" means nothing, the Ninth says it does. The Ninth also had a popular ruling on the Pledge of Allegance, too. I guess they are much wiser now....... :roll:
 

agman

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Oldtimer said:
agman said:
smalltime said:
agman are you shure your on the winning side?

"No doubt at all" is my response. Facts will win out everytime over fiction. Have a cool one.

------------------------------------------
CATTLE:

Trend: Short Term Down, Long Term Down



Sentiment: More Supply means lower prices. Regardless of your political leanings, you have to realize that higher supplies mean lower prices. So whether you are a happy member of the NCBA or an upset member of R-CALF, guess what? Your cattle are worth less than they were yesterday. Since slaughter capacity has increased in Canada we will be getting fewer cattle than we did before the border was closed, but that just means we are getting more beef than we were before. That is one of the reasons that boxed beef prices have trended lower for 11 weeks.



I haven’t been bullish cattle for a while anyway, and this just makes it harder for me to be. Feeder cattle will take the biggest hit, partly because they were too high in the first place and partly because feeder cattle will come into the US in greater numbers than live cattle at least in the beginning.



There is still a $12/cwt spread between US and Canadian live cattle prices, but that should narrow as time goes by. I suspect it will be because our price goes down and theirs goes up.



Action: You have to be short until something changes. This is especially true in the FC. Any of my recent recommendations would be working great right now. LC shouldn’t be under as much pressure, but I still don’t like the outlook. Do you realize that Oct 2003 LC futures were at about $72.50 before the border was closed? A conservative approach would be to buy August LC and sell Oct LC.





Schwieterman Marketing, L.L.C.

1616 Kansas Avenue

Garden City, KS 67846
__________________________________

Well Agman is this the WINNING SIDE--Depressed Cattle Prices?
Is this what NCBA and USDA have been pushing so hard for? Or do you still believe the border will have no affect? Or is this just another beancounter thats prognosticating?

I always love it- one Ouija board reader says BUY- the other says SELL-- And neither one give a darn because they sit in their penthouse office and dole out info that they get paid for either if they are right or wrong....And most have never even looked at a cow........All Politics....

I don't know why you post your positions are so incredibly shallow. What was the price prior to the border opening? Did it not decline from $94 to $82? The key word is before the border opened. Do you want to blame the lower price on the open border, no cattle have even stated to move yet. What about demand - do you know what that is? Does it not bother you that two years ago were killing up to 740,000 head per week and everyone was profitable and now we kill 650,00 head per week and money is being lost.

Does it not bother you that this winter kills were under 580,000 head per week and packers could not raise wholesale price to cover costs? I know, it is a conspiracy.

No surprise, that you would be the first to complain with your ulta phony cause and effect analysis. While you were gloating over the phony lawsuit keeping the border closed and the closed border caused the high prices you should have focused on the real issue; a near record decline in beef production last year and now a weaker demand base. Only you could not figure out what would result when domestic beef production began to increase as is developing now.

You continue to be on the losing side of issues because you are simply WRONG. That is your choice, not mine. I thought you were so well connected politically and had access to such good legal minds. That is a real hoot. Three strikes and you are out. Have you not figured that out yet? When R-Calf is your Ouija board why would you expect any other result?

BTW, the latest available data has total imports of beef slightly below last year. How can that be the excuse for lower beef prices in the past 11 weeks? I believe the aforementioned quote from you R-Calf supporter in Garden City is wrong; what else is new?
 

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