Soaring Oil Prices Mute Wall Street Rally

[CattleCo]

The concern on Wall Street, however, is that "eventually, higher gas prices will eat away at consumers' purchasing power ... and slow economic growth," Vitner said.

Well Agman, since you are the world's greatest commodity broker how is this going to sort out?
Let's see;
Ranching and Farming operation cost are through the friggin roof. The forthcoming Farm BIll is going to lower land values and cash rent.
The Western US Ranching country is becoming a hunters playground. No body can pencil farm and ranch land. SO Agman, with all this knowledge from previous charts and graphs...economic indicators and the record consumer debt in this country how is agriculture going to cut a fat hog???? No pun intended Porker! I just want an expert to tell me how this is going to sort out!!! I know you are praying for 1.80 Corn. I got news for you.......that will not work, even with LDP's! I personally wish the whole damm thing would crash and we can get on to the recovery and get this phony economy behind us!
The wreck is coming and Agman you damm well know it!

 

[Anonymous]

Boy, CattleCo.

You are just a fountain of good news on this board.

Just like I aways say, if you think the worst is going to happen, it eventually will.

 

[agman]

The concern on Wall Street, however, is that "eventually, higher gas prices will eat away at consumers' purchasing power ... and slow economic growth," Vitner said.

Well Agman, since you are the world's greatest commodity broker how is this going to sort out?
Let's see;
Ranching and Farming operation cost are through the friggin roof. The forthcoming Farm BIll is going to lower land values and cash rent.
The Western US Ranching country is becoming a hunters playground. No body can pencil farm and ranch land. SO Agman, with all this knowledge from previous charts and graphs...economic indicators and the record consumer debt in this country how is agriculture going to cut a fat hog???? No pun intended Porker! I just want an expert to tell me how this is going to sort out!!! I know you are praying for 1.80 Corn. I got news for you.......that will not work, even with LDP's! I personally wish the whole damm thing would crash and we can get on to the recovery and get this phony economy behind us!
The wreck is coming and Agman you damm well know it!

First of all, what makes you think I am wishing for $1.80 corn? Where have I ever implied that? Just one more sensationalized statement from you.

Second, oh if we could all just create opinions on one-half the balance sheet. You talk about debt, so what, consumers have always had debt and the serviceability of debt is what counts. What about the other side of the ledger-assets? Well, total consumer debt is approximately $9 trillion dollars-horrible. Total consumer assets are $59 trillion-you did not know that did you. Consumer net worth is $50 trillion-you did not know that either. Serviceability of farm debt is much higher than in the last farm crisis. Did you know that during the last farm crisis in the mid 80's over one-half of all producers had no debt. As usual, only the complainers made the news.

The economy is going to crash because of high energy. Did you know that since the last oil crisis when oil hit $50 per barrel that GDP output per BTU's of energy usage has doubled? In short, the U.S. economic machine is twice as energy efficient as in 1979. BTW, who was the first to measure the impact of high energy costs and its impact on discretionary spending and impact on beef sales eighteen months ago? You get one guess.

This horrible economy is at "full employment" and growing at 3.5% annually or $400+ billion per year. Higher energy costs have cost the economy approximately one-half point of GDP growth.
Per the outdated payroll survey of employment this horrible economy is only creating an average of 170,000 new jobs per month. Per the broader household survey that total is 203,000 per month. That sir, is the envy of the world. BTW, those new service jobs pay more than those manufacturing jobs you hear about in the news.

Personal income growth has accelerated to 6.7% annualized which is up from a rate of 5.1%. That small difference adds an additional $150 billion annually to income. Productivity gains from previous capital investment have generally been absorbed so now employment and income growth will accelerate.

Where is total farm income-near record I believe? Yes, cost have increased but so has productivity. Is farm income likely to decline? I believe it will but not a collapse as you fear.

Need I say anymore regarding your concerns? I think not. I will focus on factors that really drive this great economy while you can continue to read what is on the front-page.

 

[adventureman]

Need I say anymore regarding your concerns? I think not. I will focus on factors that really drive this great economy while you can continue to read what is on the front-page.

Burn!



I hope you are right.



PS Well written and very entertaining
________
Supra

 

[Jason]

Agman, I have a couple general economic questions for you.

I understand your debt assest comments, but if I understand correctly most of the assests are real estate? Some say the bubble will break and values will drop. With the 50 trillion buffer they would have to drop a lot, but is that a concern?

Next question, in Canada we have full employment as well and in fact many businesses cannot find workers. Some jobs simply do not pay a living wage anymore so workers are drifting to the best positions (pay) they can find. Where do you see this going? More pay and inflation? or reduced businesses, or services?

I have most of my loans on floating interest and a rise in interest scares me. Inflation is the reason feds use to raise interest. I have equity but not a lot of wiggle room on cash flow to service higher interest payments.

Any insights would be most welcome.

 

[CattleCo]

"Did you know that during the last farm crisis in the mid 80's over one-half of all producers had no debt. As usual, only the complainers made the news. " I can buy that!


The economy is going to crash because of high energy. Did you know that since the last oil crisis when oil hit $50 per barrel that GDP output per BTU's of energy usage has doubled? In short, the U.S. economic machine is twice as energy efficient as in 1979. BTW, who was the first to measure the impact of high energy costs and its impact on discretionary spending and impact on beef sales eighteen months ago? You get one guess

YOU? People are buying beef because thay finally realized the health value,not necessarily the diet deal.
"This horrible economy is at "full employment" and growing at 3.5% annually or $400+ billion per year. Higher energy costs have cost the economy approximately one-half point of GDP growth.
Per the outdated payroll survey of employment this horrible economy is only creating an average of 170,000 new jobs per month. Per the broader household survey that total is 203,000 per month. That sir, is the envy of the world. BTW, those new service jobs pay more than those manufacturing jobs you hear about in the news. "

Jobs! minimum wage and low paying jobs.....what about the cuts in the mid range jobs....the employment figures are bull **** at best!


"Where is total farm income-near record I believe? Yes, cost have increased but so has productivity. Is farm income likely to decline? I believe it will but not a collapse as you fear.

Need I say anymore regarding your concerns? I think not. I will focus on factors that really drive this great economy while you can continue to read what is on the front-page."

Let me see........grain farmers are receiving the same price for crops for the past few years and cost of production has gone through the roof.....YOUR numbers do not add up! sorry.......liars figure, but figures do not lie!!

I will give you credit for a decent response. I really think those of us in Ag are in for a ruff road......you forgot to mention when these credit card payments double this fall how much of this EXTRA $$$$ folks will have to spend on BEEF, etc? :roll:

Since no one on this board can do one damm thing about the economy we can stll enjoy debating it!

 

[agman]

"Did you know that during the last farm crisis in the mid 80's over one-half of all producers had no debt. As usual, only the complainers made the news. " I can buy that!


The economy is going to crash because of high energy. Did you know that since the last oil crisis when oil hit $50 per barrel that GDP output per BTU's of energy usage has doubled? In short, the U.S. economic machine is twice as energy efficient as in 1979. BTW, who was the first to measure the impact of high energy costs and its impact on discretionary spending and impact on beef sales eighteen months ago? You get one guess

YOU? People are buying beef because thay finally realized the health value,not necessarily the diet deal.
"This horrible economy is at "full employment" and growing at 3.5% annually or $400+ billion per year. Higher energy costs have cost the economy approximately one-half point of GDP growth.
Per the outdated payroll survey of employment this horrible economy is only creating an average of 170,000 new jobs per month. Per the broader household survey that total is 203,000 per month. That sir, is the envy of the world. BTW, those new service jobs pay more than those manufacturing jobs you hear about in the news. "

Jobs! minimum wage and low paying jobs.....what about the cuts in the mid range jobs....the employment figures are BS at best!


"Where is total farm income-near record I believe? Yes, cost have increased but so has productivity. Is farm income likely to decline? I believe it will but not a collapse as you fear.

Need I say anymore regarding your concerns? I think not. I will focus on factors that really drive this great economy while you can continue to read what is on the front-page."

Let me see........grain farmers are receiving the same price for crops for the past few years and cost of production has gone through the roof.....YOUR numbers do not add up! sorry.......liars figure, but figures do not lie!!

I will give you credit for a decent response. I really think those of us in Ag are in for a ruff road......you forgot to mention when these credit card payments double this fall how much of this EXTRA $$$$ folks will have to spend on BEEF, etc? :roll:

Since no one on this board can do one damm thing about the economy we can stll enjoy debating it!

With all due respect your inforamtion on job growth and income is incorrect. Service jobs pay more than manufacturing jobs. The job creation is in the service sector. The low paying jobs you refer to are entry level jobs. How many people do you know that start at Mc D's and stay there? In cattle terms, that is just the starter ration.

People aren't buying beef for several reasons. Beef is expensive relative to the competing meats. The high cost of energy is causing lower income earners to swap higher priced beef cuts for lower priced beef such as ground beef or shift away from beef to other meats. Finally,the high protein diet craze has peaked.

 

[agman]

Agman, I have a couple general economic questions for you.

I understand your debt assest comments, but if I understand correctly most of the assests are real estate? Some say the bubble will break and values will drop. With the 50 trillion buffer they would have to drop a lot, but is that a concern?

Next question, in Canada we have full employment as well and in fact many businesses cannot find workers. Some jobs simply do not pay a living wage anymore so workers are drifting to the best positions (pay) they can find. Where do you see this going? More pay and inflation? or reduced businesses, or services?

I have most of my loans on floating interest and a rise in interest scares me. Inflation is the reason feds use to raise interest. I have equity but not a lot of wiggle room on cash flow to service higher interest payments.

Any insights would be most welcome.

Lock in your interest rates.. You can always re-finance at lower rates when they come down.

There is much more to the asset side of the ledger than real estate. The reality is that many individuals and corporations are awash in cash. One reason rates should work higher is that it will take higher rates to slow business activity since many corporations are financing growth internally from a very positive cash flow and do not need to borrow. Thus they are somewhat insulated from the cost of higher rates. Conversely their cash position earns them a higher rate of return as interest rates on savings also increases.

Regarding workers, what you are seeing is upward mobility to higher paying jobs. That is the end product of re-educating the workforce. That is a good thing. Are you better off with more of less income? You don't need to answer, we both know the answer. There will be upward pressure on wage rates when the domestic economy is at full employment but the big hammer is China and India. Their labor rates will limit income gains which will limit inflationary pressures. Thanks for the excellent questions.

 

[CattleCo]

"With all due respect your inforamtion on job growth and income is incorrect. Service jobs pay more than manufacturing jobs"

When did McDonalds pay more than Ford Chrysler , and GM ??
You have to agree that the upper class( what the hell that is?) and the lower class(poor people) are getting bigger in numbers and the middle class we know is getting squeezed. I will say it again this economy is PHONY PHONY PHONY...............deal with .....I am! :roll:
The highest highs......make the lowest lows!!!

 

[Faster horses]

Well, Agman, they asked and you told them...only to have them try to shake you down. :roll:

I appreciate your information. Thanks for your response. If you hadn't answered, the same people who are trying to deny your information wouldn't have any idea of what is really going on.

Since I cannot do anything about any of this, I would just as soon feel GOOD knowing your factual information as feel BAD about someone's dreamed up radical and negative ideas.

 

[agman]

"With all due respect your inforamtion on job growth and income is incorrect. Service jobs pay more than manufacturing jobs"

When did McDonalds pay more than Ford Chrysler , and GM ??
You have to agree that the upper class( what the hell that is?) and the lower class(poor people) are getting bigger in numbers and the middle class we know is getting squeezed. I will say it again this economy is PHONY PHONY PHONY...............deal with .....I am! :roll:
The highest highs......make the lowest lows!!!

I did differentiate service sector jobs from McD's for a reason. You are wrocg sir, average wages in the service sector are higher than the average wage in manufacturing. More importantly, manufacturing jobs today represent only 11% of total employment. If this economy is phony how do you explain a growth rate of 3.5% and tax receipts running well ahead of projections due to increased earnings. Those are irrefutable facts. Support your position.

 

[CattleCo]

"People aren't buying beef for several reasons. Beef is expensive relative to the competing meats. The high cost of energy is causing lower income earners to swap higher priced beef cuts for lower priced beef such as ground beef or shift away from beef to other meats. Finally,the high protein diet craze has peaked."

Agman, You finally got it right..........the Protein Diet craze has peaked and is going down hill........guess what it was a temporary fix for Fat people and really without a balanced diet is harmful to your health.
I'm done your a commodity broker and know it all...... good luck!








More importantly, manufacturing jobs today represent only 11% of total employment. If this economy is phony how do you explain a growth rate of 3.5% and tax receipts running well ahead of projections due to increased earnings. Those are irrefutable facts. Support your position.


Who says?????????

I will hang my case on Credit Card Debt and High Energy prices will rip this economy apart in the future! END OF STORY! :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:

 

[Jason]

Cattle Co the credit card story confirms the increase in income numbers Agman has presented.

Look closely at both. SOME consumers are drowning in credit card debt. Do you have 7 grand hanging on a card? I don't, actually I run a small credit.

I know a sucessful businessman in Florida that uses his cards for a line of credit between large contracts. He will have 100 K on the cards sometimes.

There are clearly 2 sets of people, some are benefiting hugely from this economy, then there are some who don't won't educate themselves about credit, spending, taxes etc that get gobbled up by the system.

With my situation, I should never have survived the droughts, BSE etc that I have. However with careful watching of interest rates, liabilities, STRICT budgets, markets and a little luck, I am hanging in.

I do think a few people are going to hit a credit wall, but as Agman pointed out even in the 80's half the farms/ranchers had no debt. There are still many out there that have no debt. The GNP/GDP numbers are clearly on the rise and societies will shift from a rural agrarian type to a service consumer type. How sustainable is it? Time will tell. The morality and wisdom are seperate from the economic numbers.

 

[agman]

"People aren't buying beef for several reasons. Beef is expensive relative to the competing meats. The high cost of energy is causing lower income earners to swap higher priced beef cuts for lower priced beef such as ground beef or shift away from beef to other meats. Finally,the high protein diet craze has peaked."

Agman, You finally got it right..........the Protein Diet craze has peaked and is going down hill........guess what it was a temporary fix for Fat people and really without a balanced diet is harmful to your health.
I'm done your a commodity broker and know it all...... good luck!

CattelCO, I would like to maintain a dialogue but when you simply are out of touch with basic analysis of economic data I would simply be wasting my time.

The world is full of negatives. Yet as we all know, the world moves forward and progress continues. At what point do you realize that what you are quoting is less important than what you fail to observe. Thanks for your time.








More importantly, manufacturing jobs today represent only 11% of total employment. If this economy is phony how do you explain a growth rate of 3.5% and tax receipts running well ahead of projections due to increased earnings. Those are irrefutable facts. Support your position.


Who says?????????

I will hang my case on Credit Card Debt and High Energy prices will rip this economy apart in the future! END OF STORY! :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:

 

[agman]

"People aren't buying beef for several reasons. Beef is expensive relative to the competing meats. The high cost of energy is causing lower income earners to swap higher priced beef cuts for lower priced beef such as ground beef or shift away from beef to other meats. Finally,the high protein diet craze has peaked."

Agman, You finally got it right..........the Protein Diet craze has peaked and is going down hill........guess what it was a temporary fix for Fat people and really without a balanced diet is harmful to your health.
I'm done your a commodity broker and know it all...... good luck!



More importantly, manufacturing jobs today represent only 11% of total employment. If this economy is phony how do you explain a growth rate of 3.5% and tax receipts running well ahead of projections due to increased earnings. Those are irrefutable facts. Support your position.


Who says?????????

I will hang my case on Credit Card Debt and High Energy prices will rip this economy apart in the future! END OF STORY! :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:

We picked up the peak in the Atkin's diet craze already in March of 2004. That is how many months before it ever made the news?

 

[CattleCo]

CattelCO, I would like to maintain a dialogue but when you simply are out of touch with basic analysis of economic data I would simply be wasting my time.

You can analysis your ass all the way to the Board of Trade, The Merc, The USDA, and the Baptist Church..........You are about to get a Economic Ass Whipping....... By the way what did you get your degree in???? :roll: