Red Robin
Well-known member
It's wet enough already. I'd like to save a little for august.
Arkansas Rivers Arkansas Lakes
FORECAST DISCUSSION
UPDATED: Monday at 12:45 p.m.
It's turning out to be a beautiful day with temperatures well into the 60s for Arkansas and approaching it in southern MO. Our next storm system is taking shape out west, with a cold front just south of the Ozarks. The front is already beginning to lift north, and it will be into southern Missouri by early Tuesday morning. Dew points in the 60s are present over central Texas, and an intense low-level jet stream will develop tonight as the main upper low pulls out of the Rockies. Winds of 60-70 mph a few thousand feet above the surface will transport this moisture up and over the warm front and trigger widespread thunderstorms over eastern Kansas. While a few storms may develop in western Missouri late tonight, I think the main action will occur in Kansas. Those storms will move our direction early Tuesday morning, bringing the threat of large hail and very heavy rain. Tomorrow's severe weather threat will be largely tied to the rain in the morning. If the rain moves in faster than expected and clouds remain all day, severe weather will likely be confined to large hail and perhaps a few wind gusts. If some sun and resulting instability can occur ahead of the incoming line of storms, enough low-level wind shear will be present for a few tornadoes to develop by late morning into the afternoon.
We'll get only a brief break on Wednesday before rain develops again Wednesday night and Thursday. This system is stronger and at this point looks to have a much higher threat for flooding rains. One computer model is showing up to around 5" of rain in parts of the Ozarks by Friday morning (not counting tonight/Tuesday). It's too early to tell if that will indeed be the case, but the system is powerful and will have an abundance of moisture to work with. Stay tuned...
Arkansas Rivers Arkansas Lakes
FORECAST DISCUSSION
UPDATED: Monday at 12:45 p.m.
It's turning out to be a beautiful day with temperatures well into the 60s for Arkansas and approaching it in southern MO. Our next storm system is taking shape out west, with a cold front just south of the Ozarks. The front is already beginning to lift north, and it will be into southern Missouri by early Tuesday morning. Dew points in the 60s are present over central Texas, and an intense low-level jet stream will develop tonight as the main upper low pulls out of the Rockies. Winds of 60-70 mph a few thousand feet above the surface will transport this moisture up and over the warm front and trigger widespread thunderstorms over eastern Kansas. While a few storms may develop in western Missouri late tonight, I think the main action will occur in Kansas. Those storms will move our direction early Tuesday morning, bringing the threat of large hail and very heavy rain. Tomorrow's severe weather threat will be largely tied to the rain in the morning. If the rain moves in faster than expected and clouds remain all day, severe weather will likely be confined to large hail and perhaps a few wind gusts. If some sun and resulting instability can occur ahead of the incoming line of storms, enough low-level wind shear will be present for a few tornadoes to develop by late morning into the afternoon.
We'll get only a brief break on Wednesday before rain develops again Wednesday night and Thursday. This system is stronger and at this point looks to have a much higher threat for flooding rains. One computer model is showing up to around 5" of rain in parts of the Ozarks by Friday morning (not counting tonight/Tuesday). It's too early to tell if that will indeed be the case, but the system is powerful and will have an abundance of moisture to work with. Stay tuned...
