What if this happens?

[cowwrangler]

http://www.cattlenetwork.com/NLA_Fri.aspx?oid=1282064&publishdate=2010-11-11&urltitle=Think--5-Corn-Is-Expensive--Some-Are-Betting-On--10-Next-Year&tid=Archive&hq_e=el&hq_m=869312&hq_l=7&hq_v=f440768be4

 

[allen57]

What if it doesn't?




What if...................................

 

[flcowgirl5491]

Here's what we will do if that happens: We will set our jaws, dig in, and survive just like our fathers and their fathers did. We will eat beans and rice and we will continue to take care of our families, our equipment, land, and animals and we will come out okay. THAT'S WHAT WE WILL DO. PERIOD.

 

[Buyer]

I still think if they want to trade they need to own the product not paper.

 

[per]

Looks like an opportunity to me. If in fact you agree with the premise of the prediction you are now armed with information which is power. You have the opportunity to profit from this information or let it play out and lose because of it. Or conversely change your operation as to not need corn making this a non issue.

 

[Denny]

I normally plant 80 acres of corn for silage here. I've been thinking pretty hard at increaseing that to 300 acres I figure I can combine 230 acres sell the gold nuggets and graze the stalks. It's a risky deal but I've heard of some fall 2011 contracts over $6 done proper it would run $300 an acre here to get 150 buschel corn $300 invested $900 return works real well on paper but it's not that easy.You can get about 45-60 days of grazeing per acre of stalks so basically we could run all of our cows for 2 months on stalks.

 

[burnt]

The plow is coming out of storage here next week. It hasn't seen any use in 20 years or more. Our oldest son is 27 and he can't remember seeing it work.

The grassy side is going under.

 

[Angus 62]

There is the flip side to this which is that for every piece of grass torn up or cow that goes to town there is that much less beef production. Saw nine weight yearlings bring over a thousand bucks a head this year. Calves that traditionally go into feedlots in the fall are the most likely to get hammered. Being able to put forage gain on calves from the 450-900 range will be even more attractive.

 

[jigs]

when I filled the silo this fall I was thinking that $3.50 corn is not too bad of a deal, then as it hit $5 I was thinking about parking the semi next to the silo and fishing out the kernals of corn to haul to town!!

$6 dollar corn looks VERY attractive to me. It will drag the milo price right up there with it, it will pull a lot of acres out of alfalfa production, thus driving that price up, and it will make my cash flow look a lot better than it has in years.

sad part is the down side. fertilizer is skyrocketing, land rent is out of touch, and we have guys who had corn stolen right out of the bins. 3 a.m. corn loading in town would be a bit easy to catch, but the guy lost over 10 thousand bushels, and no one saw or heard a thing !


there is a LOT of outside money being dumped into agriculture. we have guys now that are farming for "sugar daddies" and they drive the land price and the rent way out of reach for people who want to make a living on the land. one guy in particular is giving $200 and acre for irrigated land and $50 and acre for grass.

 

[Denny]

I'm with you Jigs. I've got a chance to buy a piece of ground but it won;t pencil out for beef cows but throw 200 acres of it into corn and the pencil works better still would have summer pasture for 60 pairs plus hay about 300 bales worth of meadows.Then graze the stalks in Nov-Dec. I'm likeing my new seedcorn hat alot better now.

 

[floyd]

Better price your inputs . You may be surprised.

 

[burnt]

Better price your inputs . You may be surprised.

I dumped a large quantity of 2-10-48 on most of our ground earlier this week. It was $550/mt (2.5 cents/lb.) for in-stock product compared to $650 for replacement cost and a projected $750 by spring.

I can bring my starter fertilizer needs in this fall yet as well. I should likely be filling a tank with 28% for the corn.

These current high grain prices are not guaranteed, I know, but there are effective ways of hedging one's production to protect against the downside.

Does anyone else have comparative pricing?

 

[Angus 62]

The problem with higher grain prices is that there will be a whole bunch of suppliers [parasites] that will want to get their hands even deeper in farmers pockets. Whenever you get fuel delivered, or buy fertilizer or repairs you are also likely paying for someones health insurance and paid vacation days. If my cows want a vacation there is a sale every week.

 

[Andy]

High corn prices can be great for the cattle farmer that can put a portion of there operation into corn. As denny stated he can run a cow for almost 2 months on an acre after harvest. That is free feed. I don't know of any other free lunch that we get. And when you figure in the amount of manure that you can haul out to the feilds from the lots you can raise corn for less than the grain farmers. But for the guys that creep there calves and have 650+ weaning wts it will hurt those guys. But most will just dig in and make it through.