What is happened to our cattle prices???

[Tommy]

agman...The mere fact that cattle on feed in the US are at a record and carcass weights are at a record high has nothing to do with the lower prices???

OK why are the cattle weights higher?

 

[DiamondSCattleCo]

Sounds like you are saying the U.S. can just put on more weight if they need more beef, Agman, that Canadian cattle are not necessary for the domestic market.

I certainly hope this isn't what he is saying, as its certainly not true. As much as it pains some producers, the US needs some external beef to survive due to consumers demanding certain volumes of cuts that US cattlemen simply cannot provide enough of. Sure you can raise your carcass sizes, but changes the way the beef cooks and leads to consistency issues (I'm going from chefs who are far more knowledgeable than I about cooking beef).

I asked a couple days ago what kind of beef was being exported from the US. I've had a tough time finding the answers, but so far as I can see, its mostly sub-par cuts that the US consumer simply won't buy. Perhaps I'm looking in the wrong spots, but thats what I've found thus far. So the US does need an export market to provide an outlet for these cuts, otherwise the price will crash on your culls. And since this leaves some consumer demand unfilled, the US has to resort to Canadian (or other countries) beef to fill it, or allow chicken and pork to take its place.

Like it or not, the US and Canada NEED one another to ensure a healthy North American beef market. Without one another, the packers are able to play their little games, such as 20 cent bulls. And with Japan closing down a fairly lucrative export market, that means your own cull prices will start to droop. Welcome to BSEconomics, as Mr. Kaiser would say.

Rod

 

[RobertMac]

The mere fact that cattle on feed in the US are at a record and carcass weights are at a record high has nothing to do with the lower prices???

The rise is domestic carcass weights alone has a greater negative impact on domestic cattle prices than the import of Canadian cattle.

Would we have record cattle on feed numbers if it weren't for Canadian feeders?

Packers have been processing 30-40,000 less head per day for the past few years(as compared to pre-BSE)...eventually things backup and carcass weights go up, especially when northern plains producers start recovering from the drought. And surely there are more cattle coming to market due to the southern plains drought? The Canadian trade never changed much for very long...just in how they came south...young animals in boxes as opposed to all classes.

What's with pigs...125% slaughter rate from a year ago?

Bird flu is slowing consumption world wide and hurting exports.

All protein supplies are increasing...raw product prices are going down.
Supply and demand...looks like supply is the dominate factor for producer prices?

 

[Sandhusker]

It makes you wonder what our situation would be now if we had been shipping to Japan, Korea, et al like we could have been for two years now.

 

[Bill]

Free Trade was the election issue up here. By voteing conservative I voted for free trade.
Truth is I now have mixed feelings about it. If we cant have fair trade we might as well not trade at all.
Example Alberta has the worlds second largest oil reserves second only to Saudi Arabia. American power plants and homes are feed Alberta Natural Gas through underground pipelines. Plus we export electricity directly on the grid to Americans like crazy.
Because of all this American demand for Alberta energy and because of free trade all our energy is sold on the internattional market to the highest bidder. So in other words here im living in the land of plenty with energy galore but yet im actually paying more for my energy than the guy is in California for alberta energy because im buying it back with Canadian dollars that are not worth as much as American dollars.
Anyway you guys do what you want but if that border is going to be closed to Canadian Beef, softwood lumber, or if your going to put tarrifs on our grain. Well as far as im concerned and the way I will vote in the next election is to close the border all together.
I do believe in free trade. I dont want the border to be closed. I want good US relations. But if you guys dont want Alberta beef, then you dont want our energy either. Well you may want it but if it was up to me you would not get it. Im just one guy with one vote but there are a lot of guys up here who feel the same way.

The US is running a pretty sizable trade deficit with Canada right now. You're clearly benefitting more from the open border than we are.

What do you expect with Canada having 1/10 the population of the US?

 

[agman]

Econ...Bill, it has nothing to do with "declining demand". Most people could care less about bse as its prevelance is so low and the connect the dots to the disease from eating beef is so hard with the time frame involved. In the long run it has the chance to ruin the beef markets, however. This is a supply function. Without overseas markets to sell into, the price of beef is more supply driven than domestic demand driven, regardless of what Agman says. Demand stays relatively flat compared to supply.[/quote]

Is demand for US beef increasing or remaining the same to consumers domestically and internationally?[/quote]

Once again Econ displays how little he knows about our markets. At the present time 96% of the total demand base for beef is the domestic market. At the height of exports the domestic market was 90% our our total demand base. The aforementioned is factual as opposed to to the preconceived notions of Econ. Simply put, Econ does not know what he is talking about. The primary driver of beef demand for your product has been and remains today the domestic market.

The fact is that domestic beef demand basically increased from 1999 into 2004. Last year beef demand declined 2.65%. First quarter 2006 beef demand is showing a modest decline. The bulk of the decline this year is supply related. Domestic demand has peaked for several reasons. First, the high protein diet craze has peaked. Second, the squeeze on discretionary income and spending due to high energy costs has slowed beef sales. Third, beef is at a cyclical price peak relative to competing meats. As such, beef is less price competitive. World wide demand for beef is increasing to answer your question per that issue.

The trough in the domestic beef production cycle is in. Domestic beef production will increase this year by approximately 1.2 billion pounds. If demand is constant and production goes up prices will trend lower-simply supply and demand working as it should. Generally, beef prices will decline 1.68% for each 1.0% increase in beef production-all other factors being equal. Bill, I hope this answers your questions.

 

[Sandhusker]

Free Trade was the election issue up here. By voteing conservative I voted for free trade.
Truth is I now have mixed feelings about it. If we cant have fair trade we might as well not trade at all.
Example Alberta has the worlds second largest oil reserves second only to Saudi Arabia. American power plants and homes are feed Alberta Natural Gas through underground pipelines. Plus we export electricity directly on the grid to Americans like crazy.
Because of all this American demand for Alberta energy and because of free trade all our energy is sold on the internattional market to the highest bidder. So in other words here im living in the land of plenty with energy galore but yet im actually paying more for my energy than the guy is in California for alberta energy because im buying it back with Canadian dollars that are not worth as much as American dollars.
Anyway you guys do what you want but if that border is going to be closed to Canadian Beef, softwood lumber, or if your going to put tarrifs on our grain. Well as far as im concerned and the way I will vote in the next election is to close the border all together.
I do believe in free trade. I dont want the border to be closed. I want good US relations. But if you guys dont want Alberta beef, then you dont want our energy either. Well you may want it but if it was up to me you would not get it. Im just one guy with one vote but there are a lot of guys up here who feel the same way.

The US is running a pretty sizable trade deficit with Canada right now. You're clearly benefitting more from the open border than we are.

What do you expect with Canada having 1/10 the population of the US?

What does population have to do with it?

 

[Econ101]

Econ...Bill, it has nothing to do with "declining demand". Most people could care less about bse as its prevelance is so low and the connect the dots to the disease from eating beef is so hard with the time frame involved. In the long run it has the chance to ruin the beef markets, however. This is a supply function. Without overseas markets to sell into, the price of beef is more supply driven than domestic demand driven, regardless of what Agman says. Demand stays relatively flat compared to supply.

Is demand for US beef increasing or remaining the same to consumers domestically and internationally?

Once again Econ displays how little he knows about our markets. At the present time 96% of the total demand base for beef is the domestic market. At the height of exports the domestic market was 90% our our total demand base. The aforementioned is factual as opposed to to the preconceived notions of Econ. Simply put, Econ does not know what he is talking about. The primary driver of beef demand for your product has been and remains today the domestic market.

The fact is that domestic beef demand basically increased from 1999 into 2004. Last year beef demand declined 2.65%. First quarter 2006 beef demand is showing a modest decline. The bulk of the decline this year is supply related. Domestic demand has peaked for several reasons. First, the high protein diet craze has peaked. Second, the squeeze on discretionary income and spending due to high energy costs has slowed beef sales. Third, beef is at a cyclical price peak relative to competing meats. As such, beef is less price competitive. World wide demand for beef is increasing to answer your question per that issue.

The trough in the domestic beef production cycle is in. Domestic beef production will increase this year by approximately 1.2 billion pounds. If demand is constant and production goes up prices will trend lower-simply supply and demand working as it should. Generally, beef prices will decline 1.68% for each 1.0% increase in beef production-all other factors being equal. Bill, I hope this answers your questions.

Agman, you haven't disputed anything I have said with your post.[/quote]

 

[Broke-T]

Most of the imported beef into the US other than from Canada is in the form of lean trimmings to mix with all the fat trimmed from fat slaughter cattle. Without these trimmings we would have to throw away a lot of fat.

The exports we have lost to Asia is mostly variety meats and cheap cuts Americans don't want. Not ribeyes and t-bones. These losses make up a substantial hit to the price of a fat steer.

I really get tired of the R-calf, NCBA, USDA debate. As long as everyone keeps fighting each other we all loose.

Johnny

 

[Sandhusker]

Broke-T, "Most of the imported beef into the US other than from Canada is in the form of lean trimmings to mix with all the fat trimmed from fat slaughter cattle. Without these trimmings we would have to throw away a lot of fat."

We don't have to use imported lean. It is not the only product that can be mixed with fat - chucks from domestic supplies work great. We're just told that we have to have imported lean when the fact is this is simply the most economical for the packers. They make more money REPLACING US product with imports - and then tell us it's good for all of us. We're supposed to swallow this and not ask how reducing demand for our product is good for us.

 

[Econ101]

Broke-T, "Most of the imported beef into the US other than from Canada is in the form of lean trimmings to mix with all the fat trimmed from fat slaughter cattle. Without these trimmings we would have to throw away a lot of fat."

We don't have to use imported lean. It is not the only product that can be mixed with fat - chucks from domestic supplies work great. We're just told that we have to have imported lean when the fact is this is simply the most economical for the packers. They make more money REPLACING US product with imports - and then tell us it's good for all of us. We're supposed to swallow this and not ask how reducing demand for our product is good for us.

"But then you are devaluing all those chucks!!!" What a circular argument these packers have sold on the cattlemen. To think, some of them actually believe this stuff.

I would much rather Diamond got more than the 20 cents on his bull than to see that money go south. I guess Argentina would also.

The point is that the NCBA does not represent the cattlemen in DC when it comes to these arguments. They don't represent cattlemen on the frauds that GIPSA has imposing on cattlemn/farmers. They represent the packers and try to sell it as you have framed it, Broke-T. We are beginning to see the oligopolist go international and extend their market power while keeping the potential market (and political) power of cattlemen broke up and captive, broke-t. I think you got the broke part right.

While Canadians have handled their poultry business very differently in Canada where the poultry producers have market power, not processors, in the U.S., we have allowed the USDA to bungle GIPSA so poorly that there the integrators (Tyson is the biggest) have all the market power. It makes chicken cheap relative to beef and it has the impact of replacing beef, all other things held constant. That is not good for the beef industry.

Just think if chicken in the U.S. cost as much as it does in Canada on a comparative scale. You would increase beef "demand" (actually it is not technically beef demand) higher than anything the checkoff program or all of the advertising Tyson has done on beef.

Some of you cattlemen know your cattle a lot better than the economics behind the cattle business.

 

[Bill]

The US is running a pretty sizable trade deficit with Canada right now. You're clearly benefitting more from the open border than we are.

What do you expect with Canada having 1/10 the population of the US?

What does population have to do with it?

You think it is a fair comparison of what 35 million people import as compared to 350 million? A banker should be able to figure that one out per capita.

How much of that "trade imbalance" is energy going into the biggest energy using country in the world?

Trade agreements are not single commodity as has explained here over and over and over and over. :roll: :roll:

 

[Sandhusker]

What do you expect with Canada having 1/10 the population of the US?

What does population have to do with it?

You think it is a fair comparison of what 35 million people import as compared to 350 million? A banker should be able to figure that one out per capita.

How much of that "trade imbalance" is energy going into the biggest energy using country in the world?

Trade agreements are not single commodity as has explained here over and over and over and over. :roll: :roll:

OK, keep your brain humming and explain our even larger deficit with China - they have a few times more folks than we do.

 

[Bill]

What does population have to do with it?

You think it is a fair comparison of what 35 million people import as compared to 350 million? A banker should be able to figure that one out per capita.

How much of that "trade imbalance" is energy going into the biggest energy using country in the world?

Trade agreements are not single commodity as has explained here over and over and over and over. :roll: :roll:

OK, keep your brain humming and explain our even larger deficit with China - they have a few times more folks than we do.

Grasping Sandhusker?

Your original comment to which I was replying:

The US is running a pretty sizable trade deficit with Canada right now. You're clearly benefitting more from the open border than we are.

Do you have an open border with China? Do they have the same standard of living as either of us? Do they produce the same quality of product as Canada or the US?

Compare apples to apples.

 

[RoperAB]

Free Trade was the election issue up here. By voteing conservative I voted for free trade.
Truth is I now have mixed feelings about it. If we cant have fair trade we might as well not trade at all.
Example Alberta has the worlds second largest oil reserves second only to Saudi Arabia. American power plants and homes are feed Alberta Natural Gas through underground pipelines. Plus we export electricity directly on the grid to Americans like crazy.
Because of all this American demand for Alberta energy and because of free trade all our energy is sold on the internattional market to the highest bidder. So in other words here im living in the land of plenty with energy galore but yet im actually paying more for my energy than the guy is in California for alberta energy because im buying it back with Canadian dollars that are not worth as much as American dollars.
Anyway you guys do what you want but if that border is going to be closed to Canadian Beef, softwood lumber, or if your going to put tarrifs on our grain. Well as far as im concerned and the way I will vote in the next election is to close the border all together.
I do believe in free trade. I dont want the border to be closed. I want good US relations. But if you guys dont want Alberta beef, then you dont want our energy either. Well you may want it but if it was up to me you would not get it. Im just one guy with one vote but there are a lot of guys up here who feel the same way.

The US is running a pretty sizable trade deficit with Canada right now. You're clearly benefitting more from the open border than we are.

When we started this free trade deal with you most of our manufacturing jobs went south into your country. Not much made up here anymore. For the most part its raw materials or natural resources that are harvested up here, shipped south or exported.
There are more people in California than all of Canada. How could it ever be possible for us to buy as much goods from you as you do from us?
Plus this free trade was all your countries idea. I remember the eighties. The Reagan days with your polititions and ambassadors coming up here and telling us what we were doing all wrong and promoteing free markets, the global economy, telling us to open the border, down with socialism and all that stuff. Telling us to get rid of ag subsidies, etc.
Well guess what. We did it.
Now all we are getting out of you guys is protectionist jargon. Im meAn you either believe in the free market or you dont. Honestly what im hearing when I read some of these posts is that some of you American producers want to force other Americans to buy your product.
Okay fine close the border with Canada. Then close the border with Wyoming. Then cut off Florida. Heck why not have 50 little states down there dont trade with each other? Its basically the same thing.
Anyway I believe in the free market. I believe fair trade and an open border is good for both countries.

 

[Sandhusker]

You think it is a fair comparison of what 35 million people import as compared to 350 million? A banker should be able to figure that one out per capita.

How much of that "trade imbalance" is energy going into the biggest energy using country in the world?

Trade agreements are not single commodity as has explained here over and over and over and over. :roll: :roll:

OK, keep your brain humming and explain our even larger deficit with China - they have a few times more folks than we do.

Grasping Sandhusker?

Your original comment to which I was replying:

The US is running a pretty sizable trade deficit with Canada right now. You're clearly benefitting more from the open border than we are.

Do you have an open border with China? Do they have the same standard of living as either of us? Do they produce the same quality of product as Canada or the US?

Compare apples to apples.

You're the one who used population as an explanation to a trade imbalance. Your words, "You think it is a fair comparison of what 35 million people import as compared to 350 million? A banker should be able to figure that one out per capita."

China is by far the most populous nation in the world. Keeping the same thought as your above quote, they should import more than anybody else. Back up and try again, Bill.

 

[Anonymous]

Roper AB

I believe fair trade and an open border is good for both countries.

There- You just said it all... We need fair and even rules on cattle going north as well as those going south- that never occurred with Canada which always kept the Anaplas-BT trade barrier up- and we need our products identified so they can openly compete-- In other words M-COOL so that the US Packers/retailers can't remove the label from cheaper beef coming from Canada, Mexico, Australia, Euruguay, or whereever and pass it off to unknowing US consumers as a US product...The US and Canada are about the only countries left in the world that don't require COOL labeling...Guess who has kept that from happening?

We've had a free trade agreement for 10 years- but we never had a fair trade agreement on cattle......

 

[Manitoba_Rancher]

Econ do you actually have Cattle or are you one of these button pushers that wouldnt know the front end of a cow from the back end? I have to vote for the latter.. This website is for the serious cattle Rancher not a wannabe like you!!!

 

[Bill]

OK, keep your brain humming and explain our even larger deficit with China - they have a few times more folks than we do.

Grasping Sandhusker?

Your original comment to which I was replying:

The US is running a pretty sizable trade deficit with Canada right now. You're clearly benefitting more from the open border than we are.

Do you have an open border with China? Do they have the same standard of living as either of us? Do they produce the same quality of product as Canada or the US?

Compare apples to apples.

You're the one who used population as an explanation to a trade imbalance. Your words, "You think it is a fair comparison of what 35 million people import as compared to 350 million? A banker should be able to figure that one out per capita."

China is by far the most populous nation in the world. Keeping the same thought as your above quote, they should import more than anybody else. Back up and try again, Bill.

Keep diverting and spinning off topic Sandhusker you're the pro. :lol: :lol: :lol:

How much of that "trade imbalance" is energy and raw goods you need? Take a run at that one! :roll:

 

[agman]

agman...The mere fact that cattle on feed in the US are at a record and carcass weights are at a record high has nothing to do with the lower prices???

OK why are the cattle weights higher?

Really now...provide your view for eveyone to see. Let's have it.