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When is the sky going to fall on cattle prices Old Timer????

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I thought you were predicting such a feeder calf market crash if the border opened Old Timer????

What happened?

Didn't know what you were talking about did you?

Remember what my prediction was? $9/cwt.

I watched part of the Superior Livestock Sale today and guess what top end 600 pound calves were bringing?

$1.22

How can that be with the Canadian border open?

Admit it, you R-CULTers didn't know what you were talking about again.

AS ALWAYS!



~SH~
 
How about that basis on Canadian Fats SH. Sure is working well for the Canadian producers hey.

82 cent Canadian Fats as of today.

Or are those good old packers still using a fine tuned capitalist or two in their head office.
 
~SH~ since the border opening local calf contracts for Oct-Nov delivery are off $15 cwt-- $50- 100 per head-- Top ends sold here in late June for $1.28+ at 640-- $824- today top ends ( within 50 miles of each other)were 630 at $1.14- $720 ... Culls are down $5-10 cwt-- $60- $100 dollars ......Much of the holdoff from buyers is on speculation of more border opening.......Spent the afternoon talking with two buyers that buy a huge percentage of the local calves and cows- both I have known for years and trust...Both say that an announcement of the border opening for OTM beef ( which they feel is where USDA is headed) will result in a $10- 15 cwt further cull price drop- and possibly as much as 50%....And if USDA loses all common sense ( which they have shown lately), and opens the border to OTM live cattle the effect on cull prices will be disastrous......
 
SH, What I seen of the video, the same type of cattle I bought in June are 10-12 dollars a hundred weight cheaper now.
 
OT and feeder,

Are you suggesting that the Canadian border opening IS THE ONLY FACTOR PLAYING ON THESE CATTLE MARKETS?????

OT, you already admitted it wasn't yet you keep playing the same damn song.

What about domestic supplies?

What about consumer demand as it relates to fuel prices?

DID THOSE FACTORS REMAIN CONSTANT????


Why do you continue to credit one factor on cattle markets when you admitted that more factors are involved than the Canadian border?

The actual impact of the Canadian border opening to live cattle is not the entire $10 /cwt you see and the prices you see are much higher than what the Canadian import conspiracy theorists had predicted. WHY CAN'T YOU ADMIT IT?

Every import blamer should have to take a required course on understanding market fundamentals so they actually understood the factors that affect cattle prices instead of singling out a single factor and disregarding the rest.

You also cannot admit the fact that we just came from the highest cattle prices ever recorded with the same level of packer concentration and virtually the same level of captive supplies when the packer blaming conspiracy theorists had been telling us for years that those two factors were the reason for lower cattle prices?



~SH~
 
I think a part of the price dip is due to the psychological part of the boarder opening, but the main reason is probably the high fuel cost. You have to truck theses cattle a long way. I bought a set of my customers calves off the video yesterday and they have to ride the bus nearly 600 miles. With $2.65 fuel that really adds up compared to the $2.00 of last year. All these factors are taking place right now and everything is to blame. But when my customer recieves his $792.20 check for 680 lbs calves, I am sure he will be tickled.
 
http://www.ams.usda.gov/LSMNpubs/PDF_Daily/DCBS.pdf

I think this link will show some of what SH is referring to as to price drop. Look at the charts for seasonal price, there is always a drop this time of the year. Basically, most years it is hard to find good news about the market from mid summer on. Seems like towards the end of th year/first of the year, then it seems to "pop". Then thru Spring it is hard to find bad news.

When looking at the graphs, look mainly at the 5-year averages, too many unique things in any one year to get a feel for seasonal.

My comments have nothing to do with BSE or the Border. Just something I see people losing sight of too often. It goes back to the biologcal production nature of our business, grass production and numbers.

PPRM
 
Sh, I wasn't blaming the border opening to lower prices. I was just stating the difference I paid. The money I'm losing now on fats, I'll be more gun shy on what I pay for cattle in the future. I just wish everyone in the business could make enough to have a good life.
 
Oldtimer said:
~SH~ since the border opening local calf contracts for Oct-Nov delivery are off $15 cwt-- $50- 100 per head-- Top ends sold here in late June for $1.28+ at 640-- $824- today top ends ( within 50 miles of each other)were 630 at $1.14- $720 ... Culls are down $5-10 cwt-- $60- $100 dollars ......Much of the holdoff from buyers is on speculation of more border opening.......Spent the afternoon talking with two buyers that buy a huge percentage of the local calves and cows- both I have known for years and trust...Both say that an announcement of the border opening for OTM beef ( which they feel is where USDA is headed) will result in a $10- 15 cwt further cull price drop- and possibly as much as 50%....And if USDA loses all common sense ( which they have shown lately), and opens the border to OTM live cattle the effect on cull prices will be disastrous......
Click to expand...

Do you think the decline in fed cattle prices from $94 this spring to $79 in July has anything to do with lower feeder and calf prices or is it just the Canadian border? BTW, during the same period the beef cutout value, which packers receive, declined from $165 to a low of $124.

Which of the two factors, Canadain imports or losses in the domestic fed cattle sector, has the greatest impact on lower domestic feeder and calf prices? Can you quantify the impact? I want to get you on record for this one OT.
 
agman said:
Oldtimer said:
~SH~ since the border opening local calf contracts for Oct-Nov delivery are off $15 cwt-- $50- 100 per head-- Top ends sold here in late June for $1.28+ at 640-- $824- today top ends ( within 50 miles of each other)were 630 at $1.14- $720 ... Culls are down $5-10 cwt-- $60- $100 dollars ......Much of the holdoff from buyers is on speculation of more border opening.......Spent the afternoon talking with two buyers that buy a huge percentage of the local calves and cows- both I have known for years and trust...Both say that an announcement of the border opening for OTM beef ( which they feel is where USDA is headed) will result in a $10- 15 cwt further cull price drop- and possibly as much as 50%....And if USDA loses all common sense ( which they have shown lately), and opens the border to OTM live cattle the effect on cull prices will be disastrous......
Click to expand...

Do you think the decline in fed cattle prices from $94 this spring to $79 in July has anything to do with lower feeder and calf prices or is it just the Canadian border? BTW, during the same period the beef cutout value, which packers receive, declined from $165 to a low of $124.

Which of the two factors, Canadain imports or losses in the domestic fed cattle sector, has the greatest impact on lower domestic feeder and calf prices? Can you quantify the impact? I want to get you on record for this one OT.
Click to expand...

What dropped the price on the fats? Couldn't have been affected by all those southbound Trans-X trucks loaded with beef ? What would the price be if USDA had not opened the border and nothing was coming across?--What would feeders than be paying for calves?

What would the prices be if we didn't import cheaper beef from all over the world?
 
Oldtimer said:
agman said:
Oldtimer said:
~SH~ since the border opening local calf contracts for Oct-Nov delivery are off $15 cwt-- $50- 100 per head-- Top ends sold here in late June for $1.28+ at 640-- $824- today top ends ( within 50 miles of each other)were 630 at $1.14- $720 ... Culls are down $5-10 cwt-- $60- $100 dollars ......Much of the holdoff from buyers is on speculation of more border opening.......Spent the afternoon talking with two buyers that buy a huge percentage of the local calves and cows- both I have known for years and trust...Both say that an announcement of the border opening for OTM beef ( which they feel is where USDA is headed) will result in a $10- 15 cwt further cull price drop- and possibly as much as 50%....And if USDA loses all common sense ( which they have shown lately), and opens the border to OTM live cattle the effect on cull prices will be disastrous......
Click to expand...

Do you think the decline in fed cattle prices from $94 this spring to $79 in July has anything to do with lower feeder and calf prices or is it just the Canadian border? BTW, during the same period the beef cutout value, which packers receive, declined from $165 to a low of $124.

Which of the two factors, Canadain imports or losses in the domestic fed cattle sector, has the greatest impact on lower domestic feeder and calf prices? Can you quantify the impact? I want to get you on record for this one OT.
Click to expand...

What dropped the price on the fats? Couldn't have been affected by all those southbound Trans-X trucks loaded with beef ? What would the price be if USDA had not opened the border and nothing was coming across?--What would feeders than be paying for calves?

What would the prices be if we didn't import cheaper beef from all over the world?
Click to expand...

Those trucks loaded with beef were rolling when prices went up were they not? So how could that be the cause of them going down also? You are way too easy OT. You have straw vision OT.

If we did not import lower priced beef to blend with our excess 50/50 trim prices would be lower-period. Is that too complicated for you to understand?

Why did you fail to answer my previous questions?
 

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