The chance of a lesser-rated recruit being drafted by the NFL in the first round is nowhere close to what it is for a blue-chipper.
Consider this: While four- and five-star recruits made up just 9.4 percent of all college recruits, they accounted for 55 percent of the first and second round NFL draft picks. Any blue-chip prospect has an excellent shot of going on to be a top pick, if he stays healthy and out of trouble.
For those who don't like percentages, here are some more intuitive breakdowns based on the numbers from the entire 2014 draft:
•A five-star recruit had a three-in-five chance of getting drafted (16 of 27).
•A four-star had a one-in-five chance (77 of 395).
•A three-star had a one-in-18 chance (92 of 1,644).
•A two-star/unrated recruit had a one-in-34 chance (71 of 2,434).