Red Robin
Well-known member
A friend bought some 479 weight colored steers here today for a buck. Is the market in an over correction position?
calf market
- Thread starter Red Robin
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Manitoba_Rancher
Well-known member
It sure is up here in Manitoba. These feed prices are making the feedlots take a second look at buying cattle.
katrina
Well-known member
Is there any truth to the fact that the oil boys are buying corn futures???
I know the market here is way down, but I don't know the quality that is being sold, since I haven't been to the sale barn for a couple weeks.. It's hard to understand, I'm sure everyone has had there corn locked in for along time......
I know the market here is way down, but I don't know the quality that is being sold, since I haven't been to the sale barn for a couple weeks.. It's hard to understand, I'm sure everyone has had there corn locked in for along time......
Mike
Well-known member
ADM, Cargill, and a couple of others own the grain market.
katrina
Well-known member
Yes...... But wouldn't they want to keep the price down??? And anyone can buy futures right.......
Ag web says that corn crop estimates are way down and high exports of corn...
Mike
Well-known member
Who do you think does all/most of the exporting?
katrina
Well-known member
Net sales of 1,929,100 MT were 88 percent above the previous week and 85 percent over the prior 4-week average. Major increases were reported for Japan (336,100 MT), Mexico (304,200 MT, including 15,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), South Korea (234,500 MT, including 111,700 MT switched from unknown destinations), Ecuador (172,600 MT, including 142,600 MT late reporting), Taiwan (167,300 MT, including 58,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Syria (152,300 MT, including 117,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Colombia (110,700 MT, including 27,400 MT late reporting), Algeria (77,900 MT), Panama (72,000 MT, including 56,300 MT late reporting), and Honduras (64,500 MT, all late reporting). Decreases were reported for Egypt (68,800 MT) and unknown destinations (35,000 MT).
Weekly Export Details: Exports of 1,174,000 MT were 7 percent above the previous week and 15 percent over the prior 4-week average. The major destinations were Mexico (248,600 MT), Japan (202,000 MT), Syria (145,300 MT), South Korea (115,700 MT), Guatemala (92,000 MT), Taiwan (87,000 MT), and Egypt (54,500 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators Sales were nearly double the top end of trade expectations. Export commitments are running 40% ahead of year-ago for the current week compared to 35% ahead the prior week..
Wheat
Actual Sales (in metric tons -- MT) 572,900 MT
Trade Expectations 400,000 to 600,000 MT
Weekly Sales Details Net sales of 572,900 MT were 39 percent below previous week and 9 percent under the prior 4-week average. Major increases for Egypt (120,000 MT), Indonesia (80,000 MT, including 55,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Cuba (75,000 MT), Honduras (55,500 MT, including 20,000 MT late reporting), Taiwan (50,000 MT), South Korea (42,400 MT), and Venezuela (38,800 MT, including 27,000 MT late reporting) were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (66,000 MT). Weekly Export Details: Exports of 257,000 MT were 26 percent below the previous week and 43 percent under the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (42,400 MT), Yemen (41,900 MT), Mexico (38,500 MT), South Korea (23,200 MT), Nigeria (20,900 MT), Panama (20,000 MT), and Algeria (19,700 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators Sales near the top end of trade expectations. Cumulative bookings are down 18% from year-ago compared to 15% below the prior week.
Soybeans
Actual Sales (in metric tons -- MT) 768,300 MT
Trade Expectations 500,000 to 700,000 MT
Weekly Sales Details Net sales of 768,300 MT were one-fifth above the previous week, but 5 percent under the prior 4-week average. The major buyers were China (230,400 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), the Netherlands (111,700 MT, including 106,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (87,700 MT), Taiwan (79,200 MT), Japan (75,900 MT), Thailand (66,000 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Belgium (60,300 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (91,000 MT).
Weekly Export Details: Exports of 1,124,400 MT were 8 percent below the previous week, but 14 percent above the prior 4-week average. The primary destination was China (648,100 MT), with smaller quantities to the Netherlands (111,700 MT), Mexico (81,800 MT), Thailand (66,000 MT), and Belgium (60,300 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators Sales were above trade expectations. Cumulative bookings are up 36% from year ago compared to up 36% the prior week.
Soymeal
Actual Sales (in metric tons -- MT) 265,900 MT
Trade Expectations 75,000 to 125,000 MT
Weekly Sales Details Net sales of 265,900 MT were four and three-fifths times the previous week. The major buyers were Mexico (78,600 MT), Honduras (42,000 MT, all late reporting), Panama (39,300 MT, including 35,300 MT late reporting), Turkey (32,000 MT), and Guatemala (23,000 MT).
Weekly Export Details: Exports of 120,900 MT were 4 percent above the previous week and 6 percent over the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Guatemala (33,800 MT), Canada (26,100 MT), Japan (16,100 MT), and Mexico (12,200 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators Sales were well above trade expectations. Export commitments are running 27% ahead of year-ago for the current week compared to 16% ahead the prior week.
Soyoil
Actual Sales (in metric tons -- MT) -100 MT
Trade Expectations 3,000 to 7,000 MT
Weekly Sales Details Net sales reductions of 100 MT resulted as major increases for Canada (300 MT) were more than offset by decreases for South Korea (500 MT).
Weekly Export Details: Exports of 33,800 MT were mainly for China (20,000 MT), South Korea (9,500 MT), and Mexico (3,800 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators Sales were below trade expectations. Export commitments are running 16% behind year-ago for the current week compared to 22% ahead the prior week.
Cotton
Actual Sales (in running bales -- RB) 156,100 RB
Trade Expectations 75,000 RB to 200,000 RB
Weekly Sales Details Net Upland sales of 156,100 RB were 31 percent above the previous week, but 23 percent under the prior 4-week average. The major buyers were Turkey (74,000 RB), China (28,400 RB), and Pakistan (9,300 RB). Sales of 10,700 RB for delivery in 2007/08 were for Nicaragua (7,200 RB) and Thailand (3,500 RB).
Weekly Export Details: Exports of 125,100 RB were 7 percent above the week earlier and 4 percent over the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (27,900 RB), Turkey (21,100 RB), Mexico (20,200 RB), Indonesia (12,700 RB), Colombia (6,900 RB), and Brazil (6,300 RB).
Comments and Performance Indicators Sales were in line with trade expectations. Cumulative bookings are running 44% behind year-ago compared to 45% behind the prior week.
Beef
Actual Sales (in metric tons -- MT) 6,300 MT
Weekly Sales Details Net sales of 6,300 MT were mainly for Mexico (3,200 MT), Canada (1,800 MT), Japan (700 MT), Taiwan (400 MT), and Moldova (200 MT).
Weekly Export Details: Exports of 6,300 MT were primarily for Mexico (4,100 MT), Canada (700 MT), Japan (500 MT), and Taiwan (400 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators Sales rose fell compared to week-ago levels.
Weekly Export Details: Exports of 1,174,000 MT were 7 percent above the previous week and 15 percent over the prior 4-week average. The major destinations were Mexico (248,600 MT), Japan (202,000 MT), Syria (145,300 MT), South Korea (115,700 MT), Guatemala (92,000 MT), Taiwan (87,000 MT), and Egypt (54,500 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators Sales were nearly double the top end of trade expectations. Export commitments are running 40% ahead of year-ago for the current week compared to 35% ahead the prior week..
Wheat
Actual Sales (in metric tons -- MT) 572,900 MT
Trade Expectations 400,000 to 600,000 MT
Weekly Sales Details Net sales of 572,900 MT were 39 percent below previous week and 9 percent under the prior 4-week average. Major increases for Egypt (120,000 MT), Indonesia (80,000 MT, including 55,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Cuba (75,000 MT), Honduras (55,500 MT, including 20,000 MT late reporting), Taiwan (50,000 MT), South Korea (42,400 MT), and Venezuela (38,800 MT, including 27,000 MT late reporting) were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (66,000 MT). Weekly Export Details: Exports of 257,000 MT were 26 percent below the previous week and 43 percent under the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (42,400 MT), Yemen (41,900 MT), Mexico (38,500 MT), South Korea (23,200 MT), Nigeria (20,900 MT), Panama (20,000 MT), and Algeria (19,700 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators Sales near the top end of trade expectations. Cumulative bookings are down 18% from year-ago compared to 15% below the prior week.
Soybeans
Actual Sales (in metric tons -- MT) 768,300 MT
Trade Expectations 500,000 to 700,000 MT
Weekly Sales Details Net sales of 768,300 MT were one-fifth above the previous week, but 5 percent under the prior 4-week average. The major buyers were China (230,400 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), the Netherlands (111,700 MT, including 106,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (87,700 MT), Taiwan (79,200 MT), Japan (75,900 MT), Thailand (66,000 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Belgium (60,300 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (91,000 MT).
Weekly Export Details: Exports of 1,124,400 MT were 8 percent below the previous week, but 14 percent above the prior 4-week average. The primary destination was China (648,100 MT), with smaller quantities to the Netherlands (111,700 MT), Mexico (81,800 MT), Thailand (66,000 MT), and Belgium (60,300 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators Sales were above trade expectations. Cumulative bookings are up 36% from year ago compared to up 36% the prior week.
Soymeal
Actual Sales (in metric tons -- MT) 265,900 MT
Trade Expectations 75,000 to 125,000 MT
Weekly Sales Details Net sales of 265,900 MT were four and three-fifths times the previous week. The major buyers were Mexico (78,600 MT), Honduras (42,000 MT, all late reporting), Panama (39,300 MT, including 35,300 MT late reporting), Turkey (32,000 MT), and Guatemala (23,000 MT).
Weekly Export Details: Exports of 120,900 MT were 4 percent above the previous week and 6 percent over the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Guatemala (33,800 MT), Canada (26,100 MT), Japan (16,100 MT), and Mexico (12,200 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators Sales were well above trade expectations. Export commitments are running 27% ahead of year-ago for the current week compared to 16% ahead the prior week.
Soyoil
Actual Sales (in metric tons -- MT) -100 MT
Trade Expectations 3,000 to 7,000 MT
Weekly Sales Details Net sales reductions of 100 MT resulted as major increases for Canada (300 MT) were more than offset by decreases for South Korea (500 MT).
Weekly Export Details: Exports of 33,800 MT were mainly for China (20,000 MT), South Korea (9,500 MT), and Mexico (3,800 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators Sales were below trade expectations. Export commitments are running 16% behind year-ago for the current week compared to 22% ahead the prior week.
Cotton
Actual Sales (in running bales -- RB) 156,100 RB
Trade Expectations 75,000 RB to 200,000 RB
Weekly Sales Details Net Upland sales of 156,100 RB were 31 percent above the previous week, but 23 percent under the prior 4-week average. The major buyers were Turkey (74,000 RB), China (28,400 RB), and Pakistan (9,300 RB). Sales of 10,700 RB for delivery in 2007/08 were for Nicaragua (7,200 RB) and Thailand (3,500 RB).
Weekly Export Details: Exports of 125,100 RB were 7 percent above the week earlier and 4 percent over the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (27,900 RB), Turkey (21,100 RB), Mexico (20,200 RB), Indonesia (12,700 RB), Colombia (6,900 RB), and Brazil (6,300 RB).
Comments and Performance Indicators Sales were in line with trade expectations. Cumulative bookings are running 44% behind year-ago compared to 45% behind the prior week.
Beef
Actual Sales (in metric tons -- MT) 6,300 MT
Weekly Sales Details Net sales of 6,300 MT were mainly for Mexico (3,200 MT), Canada (1,800 MT), Japan (700 MT), Taiwan (400 MT), and Moldova (200 MT).
Weekly Export Details: Exports of 6,300 MT were primarily for Mexico (4,100 MT), Canada (700 MT), Japan (500 MT), and Taiwan (400 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators Sales rose fell compared to week-ago levels.
lazy ace
Well-known member
What is the price of Barley? Are feeders going to utilize Barley and how does it feed compared to corn?
have a cold one
lazy ace
have a cold one
lazy ace
katrina
Well-known member
Ace we used to feed barley and it's great!!!! Can't tell you cmpared to corn, will have to ask my feedman guru.... :wink: We would like feed some glutin, but can't use a simi load before it gets bad....
cowsense
Well-known member
Canadian barley is following corn up fast.......breaking C$3.45 delivered feedlot alley (southern Alta.). Heard a commodity report stating that the big investment funds were buying huge on the corn commodity markets.........probably hoping to make a quick profit and run! :???:
katrina
Well-known member
Do you think the corn market has topped out??
IL Rancher
Well-known member
Shoot... the corn market could go a lot higher... Could. Any delay in planting, anything that hurts the wheat crop this winter or any overseas cereal grain crops could bring corn up higher.. A drought in the corn belt next summer could make things real ugly with how tight supplies are right now... Or, we could get a typical or great crop next year and have prices go way down..
These ethanol plants though are pushing demand up and the rate they are going up... . Folks who know better than I do think it is going up...
We can use a semiload of Distillers a week pretty easy but we feed it to mother cows and bring it in wet... Really looking forward to the two closer plants going on line next year so I can be hauling it 5 miles instead of 65.
These ethanol plants though are pushing demand up and the rate they are going up... . Folks who know better than I do think it is going up...
We can use a semiload of Distillers a week pretty easy but we feed it to mother cows and bring it in wet... Really looking forward to the two closer plants going on line next year so I can be hauling it 5 miles instead of 65.
IL Rancher
Well-known member
Barley is darn close to being the as effiecient as corn for cattle. They were doing studies on it at MSU when I was there and the feed value of Barley was the closest thing to corn out there basically..
katrina
Well-known member
You feed it to cows??? how much??? And with what??
The thing is: It looks like we are getting one heck of a wheat price, But There not paying for protein....
I don't know???? I say corn is cheap by the first of the year....... Anyone want to make a wager???
The thing is: It looks like we are getting one heck of a wheat price, But There not paying for protein....
I don't know???? I say corn is cheap by the first of the year....... Anyone want to make a wager???
IL Rancher
Well-known member
Katrina,
Last year we mixed Gluten with seed corn silage and than cut it with corn stalk bales to drop the energy down. This year we are feeding Distillers with corn stalk bales only.. How much? WE are builidng up to that right now but have talked to a nutiotionist, a Vigertone district guy and my neighbor, who has been using it for years... From what we have gathered you can feed up to 50% of the DM requirment with Distillers but you start loosing preformance but we will be more at 20-30 pounds a day of a 33% DM product.. If I have to I will mix some Gluten in so we don't have so much fat.....
The thing is, around here at least, Hay is 100+ bucks a ton. I can make stalks for a lot less and than mix in the Wet gluten/distillers that is usually cheaper than it is this year, mix in some mineral, and build a hay for a lot less money than it costs to buy it... Of course, growing hay is also an option but not always a good one.. Iowa State has a lot of information on the stalk and distillers for brood cows.
Last year we mixed Gluten with seed corn silage and than cut it with corn stalk bales to drop the energy down. This year we are feeding Distillers with corn stalk bales only.. How much? WE are builidng up to that right now but have talked to a nutiotionist, a Vigertone district guy and my neighbor, who has been using it for years... From what we have gathered you can feed up to 50% of the DM requirment with Distillers but you start loosing preformance but we will be more at 20-30 pounds a day of a 33% DM product.. If I have to I will mix some Gluten in so we don't have so much fat.....
The thing is, around here at least, Hay is 100+ bucks a ton. I can make stalks for a lot less and than mix in the Wet gluten/distillers that is usually cheaper than it is this year, mix in some mineral, and build a hay for a lot less money than it costs to buy it... Of course, growing hay is also an option but not always a good one.. Iowa State has a lot of information on the stalk and distillers for brood cows.
katrina
Well-known member
Thanks IL rancher!!!! Maybe that can be an option since we like to feed glutin to fat cattle.... 
baling wire
Well-known member
I agree with you 100% Katrina. When these fund byers get out watch it drop as fast as it went up.
I have 30 semi loads of distillars grain here we dumped it out 3 trucks wide and 10 loads long let it set for a week and pushed the sides up and the ends in to make a large pile. It seemed to dry down some the top 4 to 6 inches is going to spoil but at $210 per semiload a little waste is fine.I am feeding 10#s wet per 550# calf right now and grass hay.Once the cows start I will be feeding 20#s per head per day with swamp hay.We are feeding it straight to some feeder pigs/butcher hogs and you can see the weight go on them.Hopefully it does'nt freeze in to much when it get's real cold.The dryer at the distillers plant broke so the product was free just pay the trucking.It figured out to $8.75 per ton wet or $26.25 dry Hay here is $60 a ton this fall.
cowsense
Well-known member
Katrina; I was talking to a couple of feedlot operators last week and they felt feed grain prices were close to the top right now and should level out by new year! Time will certainly tell if this is wishful thinking or insightful market forecasting.................hope they're right as we have to buy barley this winter..........am checking options ; may buy screening pellets for backgrounding rations.
Jason
Well-known member
The fundamentals for a spike in grain prices has been there for over 2 years. Low carry over stocks especially in wheat have countries that buy for human consumption in a tough spot.
Why did it finally break and so fast? Who knows, but from my broker, the contracts for Lethbridge barley are more than covered by actual grain.
Nearly all the feedlots in the Lethbridge area are buying on the cash market, a really big mistake this year, but hindsight is 20/20.
I saw a small rally before harvest and nearly opted to sell a couple loads at $2.50 a bushel, a profit and a few cents higher than we have seen for 2 years. I held off and the rally went wild after harvest. 2 loads booked at $2.90 picked up in my yard, then the rally went again. I booked another load at $3.42 picked up.
As for the better calves selling, one of my bull customers got $1.39 for 579 wt heifers. They were weaned starting at 8 am and sold the following day at 1pm. They had been named champion pen of heifers at the special british breeds sale.
Hay is relatively cheap, but freight is making it land near $65 a ton anywhere local.
This rally has basically been driven by real fundamentals, but the risk is that investor groups will bounce it higher then lower than it would on it's own. The real key is managers knowing where their profit/break even lines are, and sell or buy accordingly.
Why did it finally break and so fast? Who knows, but from my broker, the contracts for Lethbridge barley are more than covered by actual grain.
Nearly all the feedlots in the Lethbridge area are buying on the cash market, a really big mistake this year, but hindsight is 20/20.
I saw a small rally before harvest and nearly opted to sell a couple loads at $2.50 a bushel, a profit and a few cents higher than we have seen for 2 years. I held off and the rally went wild after harvest. 2 loads booked at $2.90 picked up in my yard, then the rally went again. I booked another load at $3.42 picked up.
As for the better calves selling, one of my bull customers got $1.39 for 579 wt heifers. They were weaned starting at 8 am and sold the following day at 1pm. They had been named champion pen of heifers at the special british breeds sale.
Hay is relatively cheap, but freight is making it land near $65 a ton anywhere local.
This rally has basically been driven by real fundamentals, but the risk is that investor groups will bounce it higher then lower than it would on it's own. The real key is managers knowing where their profit/break even lines are, and sell or buy accordingly.
