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Canadian Beef Rally

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Anonymous

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Beef News
Canadian beef industry will rally, Agriculture Canada predicts

by Pete Hisey on 2/22/05 for Meatingplace.com



Livestock sales, spurred by increased slaughter capacity and the gradual reopening of the American market, will grow by 12 percent, according to Agriculture Canada, with Alberta reaping most of the benefit. Net income from the agricultural market will grow 19 percent in the province, with a 26 percent increase in cattle sales to $5.3 billion (Canadian) leading the way.

Nationally, however, lower prices in the grain market, where early frosts in 2004 affected the quantity and quality of harvests, will drag down net cash income from agricultural products nationwide by 8 percent, the organization said.


Does this 12% increase in livestock sales mean an offsetting 12% drop in US sales and prices-- -$77 fats, -$97 calves and -$40 culls or more if the demand drops because of the "questionable science" and no export markets?
 
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Anonymous

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With the small percentage of the US market Canadian cattle actually represent everyone the knows the answer to that is NO.
 

Murgen

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OT- If the Canadian market is 10% of the US's pre BSE, then a 12% increase, would have more like a 1% impact on the US market.

Once again you are trying to mask the facts!
 

Manitoba_Rancher

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Oldtimer has a good way of trying to hide the real facts. He even hides the fact from the govt that he doesnt grow barley! :shock: Hows the horse biz ot?
 
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Anonymous

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Manitoba_Rancher said:
Oldtimer has a good way of trying to hide the real facts. He even hides the fact from the govt that he doesnt grow barley! :shock: Hows the horse biz ot?

If thats the only leg you have to stand on in your arguments your spinning your wheels- my yearly Barley program payments won't pay half of one months of my health and pharmacy insurance-- But I suppose in your socialized system you don't know about those things......
 

Tommy

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Oldtimer... But I suppose in your socialized system you don't know about those things......

Yeah and they say we are subsidised!! Go figure. Bet they would really be a bitching if they had to pay for their medicine and doctor visits.
 

Manitoba_Rancher

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Well if thats all you got to stand on then you better get aleg brace! Its not my fault you don't have medicare! Guess you should have been born on the north side of the 49th! And just to rub it in, since my income has been so poor due to BSE, any pharmacutical drugs I need are FREE!
Cry on someone elses shoulder OT, Hope the cattle trucks keep you awake in the afternoon when your trying to have your afternoon senior nap!
 
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Tommy said:
Oldtimer... But I suppose in your socialized system you don't know about those things......

Yeah and they say we are subsidised!! Go figure. Bet they would really be a bitching if they had to pay for their medicine and doctor visits.

Who in the heck do you think pays for Canada's medicare system? Some Saudi shiek or something. Canadian citizens pay for it through taxation you moron. No different than a US company does through an insurance plan.
 
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Old Timer
Here's what Luke Schwieterman has to say. Looks like he is using Chuck Lambert's formula.

Schwieterman Marketing, LLC, a firm specializing in risk management and cash grain and livestock marketing plans estimates that a minimum of 100,000 cattle per month will pour over U.S. borders if USDA’s rule is implemented, increasing weekly slaughter by four to five percent. In typically normal livestock markets, a one percent change in supply results in a two percent change in price. With Asian export markets still closed, the firm is forecasting a 10% break in August live cattle prices that could easily grow to 20% unless export markets are opened.



Brett Crotts, a risk manager with Schwieterman Marketing said, "Currently the August live cattle are between $80 and $81. By the time we reach August, the fundamentals of the cattle market will be similar to 2002 and 2003. It’s important to note that we had Asian export markets at that time. It’s entirely possible to have a $20 break in price if the border reopens and Asian markets remain closed."



A recently released Grimes and Plains Report says cattle prices "will come under sustainable pressure" if U.S. borders reopen on March 7. "We have been expecting more stockpiling of feeder cattle in Canada than fed cattle," noted the analysts. "If so, feeder cattle prices are likely to be impacted more negatively than now indicated."



Estimates of Canadian cattle available to cross U.S. borders range from one million to two million head.


If the border opens as planned I believe our markets will look more like theirs than theirs like ours. Not only will the supply increase but the packers will once again be able to use those cattle as captive supply to leverage down our prices and if its a two way street our cattle to leverage down theirs. :!:
 
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Anonymous

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Colorado: "If the border opens as planned I believe our markets will look more like theirs than theirs like ours. Not only will the supply increase but the packers will once again be able to use those cattle as captive supply to leverage down our prices and if its a two way street our cattle to leverage down theirs."

Could you please provide the figures as to what percentage of the Canadian cattle are owned or otherwise controlled by packers for more than 14 days prior to slaughter?

Watch this avoided question................


Let's start with some simple facts then we'll discuss the merits of your "market manipulation conspiracy theory".

Anyone can make statements!


~SH~
 

Big Muddy rancher

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SH don't hold your breathe waiting for a reply. They have it narrowed down to between1 million and 2 million to cross the border.. With accuracy like that what kind of answer could you expect. :cowboy:
 

Maple Leaf Angus

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Hey ~SH~ , we forgot to figure one critically important factor into that "packer owned"cattle situation. And that is that some of those cattle are owned by r-calfers!!!!!!!!!! Might we say that they are shooting themselves in the foot?

So it seems that there are some who want it both ways. And they developed a new exercise regimen with their activities. It's what happens when you try to be a cream skimmer at the same time that you're a bottom feeder. The result is that while their finger is pointing one way, their head is stuck in a very unpleasant place. :oops:
 

frenchie

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Tommy said:
Oldtimer... But I suppose in your socialized system you don't know about those things......

Yeah and they say we are subsidised!! Go figure. Bet they would really be a bitching if they had to pay for their medicine and doctor visits.


We already pay for our medicare ...it called income tax
 
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Anonymous

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frenchie said:
Tommy said:
Oldtimer... But I suppose in your socialized system you don't know about those things......

Yeah and they say we are subsidised!! Go figure. Bet they would really be a bitching if they had to pay for their medicine and doctor visits.


We already pay for our medicare ...it called income tax

Most provinces also have a sales tax applied to all purchases except food of around 7% for education and HEALTH hence the name E&H tax. Of course Canadians pay for their health care.
 

frenchie

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Anonymous said:
frenchie said:
Tommy said:
Oldtimer... But I suppose in your socialized system you don't know about those things......

Yeah and they say we are subsidised!! Go figure. Bet they would really be a bitching if they had to pay for their medicine and doctor visits.


We already pay for our medicare ...it called income tax

Most provinces also have a sales tax applied to all purchases except food of around 7% for education and HEALTH hence the name E&H tax. Of course Canadians pay for their health care.

PROVINCIAL SALE TAX 7% & GOOD SERVICES TAX 7% IN Manitoba
 

rancher

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What are your income tax rates? Like we pay a state tax and then a federal tax at a percentage of our income.
 

frenchie

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rancher said:
What are your income tax rates? Like we pay a state tax and then a federal tax at a percentage of our income.


We pay provincial and federal income tax as well.Tax rate varies with whatever tax bracket you are in.
 

Moose

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We pay Federal IncomeTax, Provincial Income Tax, GST ( 7% on Good and Services, except food) in most provinces there is a provincial sales tax of around 7 % on good and services. Then there is a municipal & education tax on property.
 

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