"The first would drive up costs on the U.S. end because it would cost more to prove U.S. product. The second would require segregation and sorting of non-U.S. product and drive an effect similar to the first scenario."
This is not exactly true. It won't drive up the packer's cost, because the cost will be passed on to the producer. We all know that. :!:
As for the hogs. Manitoba is a large hog producer. Most pigs here go either two ways. They are kept on the farm and finished, in which case they are slaughtered here. The other common option is to ship to the U.S. as 20 day old isoweans where they are grown out and enter your system as slaughter animals. Very few finished market hogs go over the border. About the only bigger hogs that cross over is cull sows, and they might not even be worth the freight right now.
On the other hand, when I worked at the local vet clinic, we alone did the paperwork for about 3,000 weanlings a week which mostly went to Iowa. This is from one clinic. These pigs spent a total of 20 days in Canada. Not a minute more. Then they went on to produce jobs on American hog farms, packing plants, and so on, after being raised on American feed in American facilities. There are a number of hog feeding operations in your country who depend on these pigs. If this scenario plays out, and they stop buying Canadian isoweans, then it's anyone's guess how many will stay in business. There just isn't the supply, and won't be for a while.
Unlike the cattle, especially in Manitoba, we
do have the capacity to process all our hogs. Maple Leaf has built a massive plant in Brandon, and if they had the hogs, they'd run it 24 hours a day. (And they've already got that Maple Leaf on their label. :wink: )
The biggest adjustment that has to be made here is to convert farrowing operations to farrow to finish. That is going to be painful, and will mean a lot of hog producers will probably quit, at least until things improve. But they will get back on line, and then they can move forward.
I guess one other option is for the American hog feeders to ship those pigs back up here to be processed. It's only about a ten hour drive. With our stronger dollar, it could be worth it. Then their hogs can come back as Canadian pork to compete with yours. 8)
There are a lot of ways this thing can play out.