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Grain World 05: No Rush Of Canadian Cattle Seen
WINNIPEG, MB, Mar 01, 2005 (Resource News International via COMTEX) -- There will be no rush of cattle being exported from Canada to the US on March 7, delegates at the Canadian Wheat Board sponsored Grain World conference heard on Tuesday.
Anne Dunford, an analyst with Canfax, a subsidiary of the Canadian Cattlemen's Association estimated that Canada at the most will have between 800,000 and 1.0 million head of cattle available to be exported to the US in 2005.
Of that amount, 600,000 to 700,000 head will be fed cattle while the other 200,000 to 300,000 will be feeders, she said.
A pending decision on the R-Calf challenge in the US on the reopening of the border to Canadian live cattle could still affect her projection, she said. A heading has been scheduled on Wednesday in Billings, Montana, to hear arguments from R-Calf who are trying to block the resumption of cattle trade with Canada.
No live cattle from Canada have been exported to the US since May of 2003, when an Alberta cow tested positive for bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), or the mad cow disease.
Prior to the discovery of BSE, Canadian live cattle exports to the US had been averaging 1.166 million head annually.
She based her estimate on Canada's market ready cattle supply hitting 5.26 million head in 2005, which includes 680,000 head of cattle carried over from calendar year 2004. Canada's domestic cattle slaughter needs in 2005 were pegged by Dunford in the 4.2 million to 4.6 million head range.
Statistics Canada pegged total cattle and calf inventory in Canada as of January 1, 2005 at 15.09 million head.
Dunford said it will take some time to work through the extra supply of cattle that were built up by the closure of the border and the inadequate slaughter capacity in Canada.
However, since the closure of the border, slaughter capacity in Canada has improved, which has resulted in some much overdue culling of some of the older cattle.
Slaughter capacity in Canada in 2003 stood at roughly 3.2 million head and had hit 4.0 million by 2004. Dunford said capacity was likely to increase another 18% in 2005 from the 2004 level and a further 4% by 2006.
Canadian beef production in 2005, meanwhile, was forecast by Dunford to rise 17% from the 2004 level to 3.7 billion pounds. Some of the beef was expected to be shipped to the US, but Mexico was also seen as a growing market for Canada's beef, she said.
Dunford said Canadian beef shipments to the US were likely to continue to decline in the years ahead as exporters look for alternative destinations as well as in view of the expansion cycle US cattle producers have started.
In regards to concerns about the lack of beef being exported from the US to Canada in a question and answer period, following her presentation, Dunford pointed out that US beef is not banned from Canada. However, she said US packers are reluctant to ship beef to Canada as the economics of doing so, do not work.
"Right now it is more profitable for US packers to send their beef products to other countries, where they can get a higher return," she said.
WINNIPEG, MB, Mar 01, 2005 (Resource News International via COMTEX) -- There will be no rush of cattle being exported from Canada to the US on March 7, delegates at the Canadian Wheat Board sponsored Grain World conference heard on Tuesday.
Anne Dunford, an analyst with Canfax, a subsidiary of the Canadian Cattlemen's Association estimated that Canada at the most will have between 800,000 and 1.0 million head of cattle available to be exported to the US in 2005.
Of that amount, 600,000 to 700,000 head will be fed cattle while the other 200,000 to 300,000 will be feeders, she said.
A pending decision on the R-Calf challenge in the US on the reopening of the border to Canadian live cattle could still affect her projection, she said. A heading has been scheduled on Wednesday in Billings, Montana, to hear arguments from R-Calf who are trying to block the resumption of cattle trade with Canada.
No live cattle from Canada have been exported to the US since May of 2003, when an Alberta cow tested positive for bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), or the mad cow disease.
Prior to the discovery of BSE, Canadian live cattle exports to the US had been averaging 1.166 million head annually.
She based her estimate on Canada's market ready cattle supply hitting 5.26 million head in 2005, which includes 680,000 head of cattle carried over from calendar year 2004. Canada's domestic cattle slaughter needs in 2005 were pegged by Dunford in the 4.2 million to 4.6 million head range.
Statistics Canada pegged total cattle and calf inventory in Canada as of January 1, 2005 at 15.09 million head.
Dunford said it will take some time to work through the extra supply of cattle that were built up by the closure of the border and the inadequate slaughter capacity in Canada.
However, since the closure of the border, slaughter capacity in Canada has improved, which has resulted in some much overdue culling of some of the older cattle.
Slaughter capacity in Canada in 2003 stood at roughly 3.2 million head and had hit 4.0 million by 2004. Dunford said capacity was likely to increase another 18% in 2005 from the 2004 level and a further 4% by 2006.
Canadian beef production in 2005, meanwhile, was forecast by Dunford to rise 17% from the 2004 level to 3.7 billion pounds. Some of the beef was expected to be shipped to the US, but Mexico was also seen as a growing market for Canada's beef, she said.
Dunford said Canadian beef shipments to the US were likely to continue to decline in the years ahead as exporters look for alternative destinations as well as in view of the expansion cycle US cattle producers have started.
In regards to concerns about the lack of beef being exported from the US to Canada in a question and answer period, following her presentation, Dunford pointed out that US beef is not banned from Canada. However, she said US packers are reluctant to ship beef to Canada as the economics of doing so, do not work.
"Right now it is more profitable for US packers to send their beef products to other countries, where they can get a higher return," she said.
