Hey R-Calfers.....

[Anonymous]

Risk-reward

John Masswohl, director of government and international relations for the Canadian Cattlemen's Association, told Meatingplace.com that Canadian cattle producers aren't exactly jumping at the opportunity while an injunction looms. Rather, they're mostly waiting for a final decision.

"My weekend pretty much consisted of receiving calls from cattle producers asking,
'What's going to happen on Monday?'" Masswohl said. "We've been telling them that until judge issues any kind of restraining order or injunction, the border will be open. But people have to be aware of the uncertainty; the judge can do anything, so they need to make decisions based on the level of risk they're willing to take."

The risk-reward is better for producers of breeder cattle, which fetch between $4,000 to $5,000 a head, than it is for producers of slaughter cattle, which go for between $700 and $1,000 per head, Masswohl noted.

"The risk people are dealing with now is, if they ship at 8 a.m. and it takes until noon for the truck to reach the border, will the judge have signed the injunction order at 11 a.m.?" he said. "If you're talking about [older than] 30-month-old cattle that are getting between $700 and $1,000 apiece versus breeding cattle, how much risk are you going to have to incur versus how much reward will you receive?"

 

[rainie]

Since when is a cull cow worth between 700 and 1000 dollars. This John guy is full of crap to. I can buy all the bred cows I want for 400 a pop.

 

[Denny]

These Prices are from South St.Paul Stockyards from last friday.

Overnight high yielding $38 to $47

Day arriveing $36 to $45

Thin & Shelly $20 to $35

Bulk of Bull's $52 to $58


I will get a market report later today and post what they were on Monday my bet is no change.

All the rational thinkers jumped ship from R-Calf last spring the Association is a joke.I got a letter from them "WE NEED YOUR HELP SEND $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$.I tossed it in the garbage.

 

[HAY MAKER]

These Prices are from South St.Paul Stockyards from last friday.

Overnight high yielding $38 to $47

Day arriveing $36 to $45

Thin & Shelly $20 to $35

Bulk of Bull's $52 to $58

I will get a market report later today and post what they were on Monday my bet is no change.

All the rational thinkers jumped ship from R-Calf last spring the Association is a joke.I got a letter from them "WE NEED YOUR HELP SEND $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$.I tossed it in the garbage.

And as usual you will be wrong all classes of cattle trended lower,due to a combination of factors ,including the opening of the border.
good luck

 

[HAY MAKER]

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

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Market Quotes as of

More Quotes Corn Soybeans Kansas Wheat Oats Lean Hogs Feeder Cattle Live Cattle Soybean Meal Canadian Dollar Wheat

Day Night Trading Hours
Contract MTH Open Last Change

Market Quotes Day Night
NOV Feeder Cattle 108.975 - 0.975
DEC Live Cattle 95.000 - 0.725
DEC Lean Hogs 53.550 - 0.350
FEB Lean Hogs 60.650 + 0.025
DEC Corn 377.50 - 2.00
MAR Corn 394.50 - 2.00
DEC Wheat 756.25 + 6.75
DEC KC Wheat 781.00 + 6.50
DEC Soybean Meal 287.70 - 4.60
DEC Soybean Oil 44.80 - 0.02
DEC Oats 275.50 - 4.50
Delayed as of 11/20/2007 8:54:00 AM

 

[HAY MAKER]

Older cattle from Canada began moving across the border into the United States on Monday, despite last-minute court appeals by some U.S. cattle groups and ranchers concerned about mad cow disease in Canada.

Ten plaintiffs, including R-CALF USA, the South Dakota Stockgrowers Association and other groups and individual ranchers, on Friday asked U.S. District Judge Charles Kornmann of Aberdeen for an emergency restraining order to keep the border closed.

They were still waiting for word from Kornmann on Monday afternoon, according to Shae Dodson, communications director for R-CALF USA (Ranchers-Cattlemen Action Legal Fund United Stockgrowers of America).

Meanwhile, at least one shipment of Canadian cattle came across the border Monday, according to Ed Curlett, a spokesman for the U.S. Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service. Curlett said Monday that he didn't know how many cattle were in the shipment or where they crossed.

R-CALF USA and others say the decision by the U.S. Department of Agriculture to open the border to Canadian cattle older than 30 months could put the U.S. cattle herd at more risk for infection from mad cow disease, known scientifically as bovine spongiform encephalopathy, or BSE. They say the move also could undermine the U.S. cattle market.

The request for an emergency restraining order was the third legal salvo the groups fired in their attempt to block the border opening.

On Oct. 24, they filed a comprehensive lawsuit challenging the USDA's Over Thirty Month rule.

On Nov. 1, they asked Kornmann to issue a preliminary injunction against the border opening.

USDA has until Wednesday, Nov. 21, to respond to the request for the preliminary injunction, according to Dodson.

Most animal scientists say mad cow disease doesn't usually appear in cattle younger than 30 months.

USDA banned all Canadian cattle in May 2003, when Canada found its first case of BSE. In July 2005, it relaxed the ban, to allow cattle younger than 30 months.

Since 2003, Canada has reported 10 cattle with BSE, a fatal neurological disease with no cure. It has been linked to variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in humans, although there have been no confirmed reports of human deaths from infected cattle in North America.

But the border has remained closed to older cattle until now.

USDA officials have said the change is firmly based in science and ensures that U.S. regulators will protect the country against the disease.

Critics counter that the federal government has failed to fully investigate the potential effects on U.S. ranchers and their export markets.

More than two dozen nations suspended beef imports from the U.S. after a cow in Washington state tested positive for the brain-wasting disease in December 2003. The cow was later found to have originated in Canada, but the United States has recovered less than 60 percent of its beef export markets.

Two other cases of mad cow disease have been discovered in the U.S. since 2003. However, both cases were atypical BSE found in extremely old cattle and could have occurred naturally, according to Dr. Sam Holland, South Dakota state veterinarian.

USDA says Canada's ban on feed that could contain BSE contamination became effective on March 1, 1999. It says cattle born after that date should not have much risk for BSE. The new rule would allow cattle older than 30 months but not those born before March 1, 1999, into the country.

But Holland said five of the BSE-infected Canadian cows were born after that date, suggesting the feed ban wasn't yet fully in force.

"The risk is still very real -- in the event that we import an infected animal -- our industry is vulnerable to tremendous financial harm as a result of this rule," said Bill Bullard, chief executive officer of R-CALF USA.

But Gregg Doud, chief economist for the National Cattlemen's Beef Association, said the United States can't expect higher standards from trading partners than it's willing to impose on itself.

"From a beef perspective, our Asian customers have long viewed this as a North American deal," Doud said. "They've said, 'Why are you asking something of us that you're not willing to give to Canada?' There's no answer to that."

Canadian cattlemen are unlikely to immediately begin shipping more cattle south of the border, for a number of reasons, said John Masswohl, director of government and international relations for the Canadian Cattlemen's Association.

Canada now slaughters most of its own cattle, since processors in the United States that relied heavily on Canadian cattle imports before 2003 have closed.

In addition, the new rule allowing older cattle requires the animals' birth dates be confirmed. It's unlikely many beef producers will have that information on older cattle, barring them from being shipped to the U.S., Masswohl said.

USDA originally estimated the border opening would mean 650,000 head of Canadian cattle coming into the U.S. annually. On Sept. 14, the department lowered that estimate to 75,000 head a year.

Herman Schumacher, president of Herreid Livestock and one of the plaintiffs in the R-CALF lawsuit, said the border decision would affect the market prices not only for older cows but also for younger cattle in feedlots and calves headed for feedlots. He said futures prices were down Monday morning for both categories of younger cattle.

 

[Sandhusker]

"From a beef perspective, our Asian customers have long viewed this as a North American deal," Doud said. "They've said, 'Why are you asking something of us that you're not willing to give to Canada?' There's no answer to that."

That is why Korea demands that we keep Canadian cattle out of their deal? Either Doud if plain full of crap, doesn't know about Korea's demands, or doesn't realize that Korea is in Asia.

 

[QUESTION]

HM tell the f*#@in truth for once. The reason the borders of certain countries have stayed closed to the US for export markets is the indeginous US cases. If the washington cow was the only positive one the borders would have reopened fully, quit blaming others for your problems.
As for Dr. Hollands comments, what does age have to do with the occurance of BSe, as cattle get older do they develope the disease more often ? Is that what he is trying to say :roll: And as for the naturally occurance of BSE, if the rates are the same as CJD in humans 1 per 1.2 million(WHO number) how many million cattle are in the US? how many are going in the food chain that are positive? Is he saying US atypical BSE is less dangerous than BSE in the rest of the world? :roll: :roll: :secret:Wasn't Dr. H involved in the south dakota debockal this spring? :roll:
If you look at futures prices they are down but that is a function of your dollar on the international money markets.
Oh yeah finally the WTO has ruled on the Nationality labeling issue. The WTO clearly established that the origin of meat is the country in which the animal was slaughtered in. So, that means you kill it then it is origin of your country. Therefore under international trade agreements COOL is a violation and any country can challenge it and win. :cowboy:

 

[HAY MAKER]

HM tell the f*#@in truth for once. The reason the borders of certain countries have stayed closed to the US for export markets is the indeginous US cases. If the washington cow was the only positive one the borders would have reopened fully, quit blaming others for your problems.
As for Dr. Hollands comments, what does age have to do with the occurance of BSe, as cattle get older do they develope the disease more often ? Is that what he is trying to say :roll: And as for the naturally occurance of BSE, if the rates are the same as CJD in humans 1 per 1.2 million(WHO number) how many million cattle are in the US? how many are going in the food chain that are positive? Is he saying US atypical BSE is less dangerous than BSE in the rest of the world? :roll: :roll: :secret:Wasn't Dr. H involved in the south dakota debockal this spring? :roll:
If you look at futures prices they are down but that is a function of your dollar on the international money markets.
Oh yeah finally the WTO has ruled on the Nationality labeling issue. The WTO clearly established that the origin of meat is the country in which the animal was slaughtered in. So, that means you kill it then it is origin of your country. Therefore under international trade agreements COOL is a violation and any country can challenge it and win. :cowboy:

The main reason some of our export markets are lost forever,is the comingling of beef products..................good luck

 

[Grandad]

The sky has fallen, the sky has fallen cried the Old Hay Husker.

 

[Bill]

The sky has fallen, the sky has fallen cried the Old Hay Husker.

:lol: :roll: :lol:

Now thats funny!

As expected the 3 stooges are twisting and turning and poking each other in the eye in their usual gong show.

US cow prices will be no more affected by Canadian OTMs going down than they were by feeder cattle going south when it opened to UTMs. The stooges were trying to scare everyone into believing the sky would fall in then as well.

Denny has it right. Any rational thinkers jumped ship long ago as R-Klan has lost all credibility and can't even buy a judge anymore.

Now lets get on with the real challenge of selling BEEF as the protein source of choice!

 

[Sandhusker]

Q, "Oh yeah finally the WTO has ruled on the Nationality labeling issue. The WTO clearly established that the origin of meat is the country in which the animal was slaughtered in. So, that means you kill it then it is origin of your country. Therefore under international trade agreements COOL is a violation and any country can challenge it and win. "

Constitutionally, the WTO is not a higher authority than the US Congress and therefore can not overturn US law. Maybe you don't have respect for the law, but some of us do.

I hope somebody tries it challenge our law so US citizens can see the lunacy and illegality of us belonging to the WTO and NAFTA as they are written.

 

[Ben Roberts]

Meanwhile, at least one shipment of Canadian cattle came across the border Monday, according to Ed Curlett, a spokesman for the U.S. Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service. Curlett said Monday that he didn't know how many cattle were in the shipment or where they crossed.




This guy is not telling the truth, I don't believe that the U.S. Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service spokesman, would not know, how many cattle were on the first load of live cattle that crossed the border or where it crossed, in four years.

Best Regards
Ben Roberts

 

[Denny]

These Prices are from South St.Paul Stockyards from last friday.

Overnight high yielding $38 to $47

Day arriveing $36 to $45

Thin & Shelly $20 to $35

Bulk of Bull's $52 to $58


I will get a market report later today and post what they were on Monday my bet is no change.

All the rational thinkers jumped ship from R-Calf last spring the Association is a joke.I got a letter from them "WE NEED YOUR HELP SEND $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$.I tossed it in the garbage.

Well checked the market prices and they were exactly the same as what I already posted .No change.

 

[Sandhusker]

A friend sold some cows in Martin, SD last week and was disappointed with his check - less than $500 for a couple of 3 year olds. The manager told him the cow market was down because everybody was worried about the Canadian deal. I'm not making this up.

 

[RobertMac]

Speculators/analyst take into account coming events and the market will adjust prior to the event. Cattle buyers on both sides of the border buy for the same companies.

 

[Anonymous]

A friend sold some cows in Martin, SD last week and was disappointed with his check - less than $500 for a couple of 3 year olds. The manager told him the cow market was down because everybody was worried about the Canadian deal. I'm not making this up.

As the buyers have told me- much of the drop has already been factored in over the last couple months (since the opening announcement) of dropping-- whether there is a legitimate supply increase causing the drop, or just the Packers being able to use that excuse....
I know the uncertainty caused a large amount of cattle to go earlier than normal-- all hitting the market at one time.....

The Canadian seedstock boys are already trying to sell down here....I got the Peak Dot Ranch sale catalog this week...

 

[Big Muddy rancher]

A friend sold some cows in Martin, SD last week and was disappointed with his check - less than $500 for a couple of 3 year olds. The manager told him the cow market was down because everybody was worried about the Canadian deal. I'm not making this up.

So your telling us you do make up stuff? :wink:


Of course everybody is worried about Canadian cattle coming down. R-CALF has made sure they would be. R-CALF created paranoia and it has hurt your cattle markets just like rumors on the stock market.

 

[Anonymous]

A friend sold some cows in Martin, SD last week and was disappointed with his check - less than $500 for a couple of 3 year olds. The manager told him the cow market was down because everybody was worried about the Canadian deal. I'm not making this up.

So your telling us you do make up stuff? :wink:


Of course everybody is worried about Canadian cattle coming down. R-CALF has made sure they would be. R-CALF created paranoia and it has hurt your cattle markets just like rumors on the stock market.

It didn't take R-CALF to create any paranoia-- most can remember the years of the Canadian cattle coming down- and the prices at $15-20 and the buyers telling everyone that was because the slaughter house parking lots were lined up with truckloads of Canadian cows....
And they remember the "record" high prices that happened right after the border was closed - which definitely showed the negative effect the Canadian cattle have on the market....

 

[Tex]

A friend sold some cows in Martin, SD last week and was disappointed with his check - less than $500 for a couple of 3 year olds. The manager told him the cow market was down because everybody was worried about the Canadian deal. I'm not making this up.

So your telling us you do make up stuff? :wink:


Of course everybody is worried about Canadian cattle coming down. R-CALF has made sure they would be. R-CALF created paranoia and it has hurt your cattle markets just like rumors on the stock market.

Don't get your panties in a wad, there, BMR. He just said he wasn't making it up--- that does not lead to the conclusion that he makes stuff up--unless you just want to argue.

I think you could bypass this issue if would just allow testing for everything. Get behind bse tester and you may get farther ahead than you have in the past. Heck---you might even by pass the U.S. market and make more money with the falling dollar from other countries than you would from the U.S.