Holiday Shopping Season Disappoints: Causes And Consequences
Dec 28, 2012 | by Colin Lokey | include: XLY
The media has thus far opted to blame a combination of factors for the slump although, as Lance Roberts of StreeTalkLive recently observed,
The excuses for the weakness... [are] just as much off the mark as the original analysts' [sales growth] estimates.
The mainstream media's culprits include superstorm Sandy, the fiscal cliff debate, and the Connecticut school shooting. While these events are tragic, ridiculous, and downright deplorable respectively, their connection to holiday shopping is tenuous at best.
Why not look instead at measures which are directly related to consumers' ability to spend money? Real disposable personal income growth for instance has been flat since mid-2010 and has recently begun to trend downward. Consider also that according to Bloomberg and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, private industry wage growth which had run at well above 2% for decades, fell below 2% in early 2009 and hasn't been back above 2% since:
Source: Bloomberg, BLS
Similarly, in the above-cited piece by Lance Roberts, the following graph appears which shows the annual change in retail sales plotted against the annual change in wages and salaries. Not surprisingly, the two look to be correlated:
Source: StreetTalkLive
Consider also that as of September, a record 47.7 million Americans were living in poverty. As Zerohedge noted,
...in August and September, over three times as many foodstamp recipients were added to the economy as jobs.
Given the above, it should come as no surprise that the holiday shopping season is shaping up to be a disappointment --
Americans simply don't have much disposable income. Target (TGT) and Macy's (M) report same-store sales next week, and while the numbers could surprise to the upside, it is my contention that investors should bet against the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY) going forward. Dismal holiday sales should lead to weaker than expected topline growth for the quarter. Additionally, deep discounting should pinch margins, cutting into any profits retailers do manage to squeeze out. Lastly, note that the XLY recently hit an all-time high so it may be due for a pullback regardless.