IL Rancher said:The country's herd is in expanding right now so heifer slaughter is down which has some impact on beef availbility... Drought has more of a regional impact, People get caught up with the west being the major cattle producing area along with Texas and the numbers support that a lot but other parts of the country have growing herds and didn't have the moisture issues that the west is continuing to go through... Lots of cows from out west are pouring into this country and lots of marginal crop ground is being turned into hay ground and pasture fences are being rebuilt.. I am not saying it would be a pretty process but when the cycle hits its low again, and we all know it will, the population of beef cattle in the US will be entirely different than it is right now.
I find the whole beef thing interesting. In 99 what were fed prices and what were feeder calf prices? Nothing like they are today right? The high end cuts at the meat market I worked at back than were similiar to what I see at the local locker now. The only real significant difference I see is in ground prices.
All that being said I am not saying that imports from Canada are a bad thing Tam. Not at all and if it came across that way it wasn't meant too.. I just believe if we were to not import or export period that the herd would pretty much fall into the same price scheme as supply/demand dictated nothing more or less than that.
You are ignoring the fact that while you had no exports your imports still increased by over 20%.Which means that you were eating everything you were producing PLUS the amount you imported pre BSE, PLUS over 20% more, just to cover your DOMESTIC NEEDS. Now cut the amount you imported before and the 20% increase and what would that do to your Beef prices in the US meat counter? Will the average consumer be able to afford to eat beef or will it be something only the rich can afford?