Illinois Crops going down hill!
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Anonymous
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Need to start feeding a lot of things out on wheat-- A lot of bins up here still full of under 12 point wheat that is worth under $1.00.......
Thankfully mine went last fall
....
Thankfully mine went last fall
....Sandhusker
Well-known member
Still a lot of corn in the bins, though.
Brad S
Well-known member
AgMeister called this little deal in il, but I hoped that hurricane drove moisture that far north.
Kato
Well-known member
We were there in the middle of June, and it was dry dry dry! Just west, in Minnesota the crops looked super.
Kato,
MN has the fear of an early frost to deal with. I really did not think we would get to 3 dollar Caorn a few weeks ago. Now, I think it is a real honest possibility. The Midwest drought is spreading. The Early planted April Corn really got hammered on pollunation. If we get a lot of rain in August we can add a few bushels to the yield, if not not only do we lose the bushels the test weight really gets bad. So Sandhusker dream about big piles of Corn in the bins.........it is a dream and a wet one! Fats will have 6 in front of the bid by the first of the year if this Corn market explodes. Remember, if it gets to 3 bucks it can go to 3.50-4 pretty easily. Everybody is speculating now, but the indicators do not look for a 2 buck or less Corn price anytime soon!
MN has the fear of an early frost to deal with. I really did not think we would get to 3 dollar Caorn a few weeks ago. Now, I think it is a real honest possibility. The Midwest drought is spreading. The Early planted April Corn really got hammered on pollunation. If we get a lot of rain in August we can add a few bushels to the yield, if not not only do we lose the bushels the test weight really gets bad. So Sandhusker dream about big piles of Corn in the bins.........it is a dream and a wet one! Fats will have 6 in front of the bid by the first of the year if this Corn market explodes. Remember, if it gets to 3 bucks it can go to 3.50-4 pretty easily. Everybody is speculating now, but the indicators do not look for a 2 buck or less Corn price anytime soon!
Sandhusker
Well-known member
"Everybody is talking...." Hey, I'm not saying corn won't get to $3, but this time last year "everybody" was talking $4 corn, and it ended below $2. I've learned long ago to take EVERYTHING with a healthy dose of salt and not get overly excited about anything.
Sandhusker
Well-known member
CattleCo said:
Believe me, that was the word for some time. Stocks were supposed to be way down and demand was going to be strong.
Private crop estimates. Private crop estimates are starting to roll out ahead of USDA's first survey-based estimate of the U.S. corn and soybean crops for 2005. Of course there are more than just corn and soybean production figures out on Aug. 12 from USDA, but those are the two numbers that will garner most of the attention. Traders will be keying in on what USDA does relative to states like Illinois suffering from drought conditions.
Sandy,
We will know something soon: Rust spores in the soybeans found in Champaign CO Illinois( they do not think they are Asian Spores??).......that is the next county over and the home of the University of IL.
Sandy,
We will know something soon: Rust spores in the soybeans found in Champaign CO Illinois( they do not think they are Asian Spores??).......that is the next county over and the home of the University of IL.
Sandhusker
Well-known member
CattleCo said:
Has Sparks said anything yet?
katrina
Well-known member
I don't think our corn will make it. So will prolly chop it for silage...
Sandhusker
Well-known member
December corn ended down 5 1/2 cents today. I don't think anybody is getting too worried about corn yet. Some hot dry weather in the right spot might do something, but we're starting to get late in the growing year to be playing the rain game. We'll be looking for frost warnings before you know.
agman
Well-known member
0CattleCo said:Just reported 55% of Illinois Corn and Soybeans in poor condition.......maybe $3.00+ Corn is coming sooner than we think!
Illinois produces approximately 20% of the nations corn. Conditions in Illinois are similar but not nearly as severe as in 1988 when their corn yields declined 50% and their bean yields declined 30%. Additionally, the balance of the country has experienced conditions much less severe than in 1988.
The market has built in a 10.3 corn crop at current prices. Such a crop would reduce the carryout from 2.14 billion bushels to approximately 1.6 billion bushels.
Some traders are beginning to talk of the possibility of yields as low as 136 bushels per acre which would equate to a 10.0 billion bushel crop. Even a crop of that size would allow ending stocks at the end of the new marketing year to be at 1.3 billion bushels. At that ending stocks level the December corn futures would be hard pressed to exceed $2.83 per bushel.
agman said:0CattleCo said:Just reported 55% of Illinois Corn and Soybeans in poor condition.......maybe $3.00+ Corn is coming sooner than we think!
Illinois produces approximately 20% of the nations corn. Conditions in Illinois are similar but not nearly as severe as in 1998 when their corn yields declined 50% and their bean yields declined 30%. Additionally, the balance of the country has experienced conditions much less severe than in 1998.
The market has built in a 10.3 corn crop at current prices. Such a crop would reduce the carryout from 2.14 billion bushels to approximately 1.6 billion bushels.
Some traders are beginning to talk of the possibility of yields as low as 136 bushels per acre which would equate to a 10.0 billion bushel crop. Even a crop of that size would allow ending stocks at the end of the new marketing year to be at 1.3 billion bushels. At that ending stocks level the December corn futures would be hard pressed to exceed $2.83 per bushel.
Question ?How will that affect feeder cattle prices?
Sandy,
Sparks should be out Aug 12 th . That was the date I heard the private boys were going to report the crop projections. As for the rest of it......I really feel we will have $3.00+ Corn before the planters roll next Spring!
Sparks should be out Aug 12 th . That was the date I heard the private boys were going to report the crop projections. As for the rest of it......I really feel we will have $3.00+ Corn before the planters roll next Spring!
agman
Well-known member
Denny said:agman said:0CattleCo said:Just reported 55% of Illinois Corn and Soybeans in poor condition.......maybe $3.00+ Corn is coming sooner than we think!
Illinois produces approximately 20% of the nations corn. Conditions in Illinois are similar but not nearly as severe as in 1988 when their corn yields declined 50% and their bean yields declined 30%. Additionally, the balance of the country has experienced conditions much less severe than in 1988.
The market has built in a 10.3 corn crop at current prices. Such a crop would reduce the carryout from 2.14 billion bushels to approximately 1.6 billion bushels.
Some traders are beginning to talk of the possibility of yields as low as 136 bushels per acre which would equate to a 10.0 billion bushel crop. Even a crop of that size would allow ending stocks at the end of the new marketing year to be at 1.3 billion bushels. At that ending stocks level the December corn futures would be hard pressed to exceed $2.83 per bushel.
Question ?How will that affect feeder cattle prices?
Thanks for an excellent question. The impact at current prices is minimal. The cost of corn is a smaller percentage of total cost so a significant advance must occur to have any significant impact on feeder and calf prices. Generally, for each $.10 per bushel advance in corn prices the price of feeders and calves will adjust downward by $4.00 per head all other factors being equal.
The bigger issue regarding feeder and calf prices is the mounting losses in the fed cattle sector. Those losses will ultimately translate into lower feeder and calf prices. The average BE on fed cattle is approximately $88 at the present time and will exceed $90 in the coming weeks. Average losses with this week's trade at $82 will approach $75 per head with some losses as high as $150 per head.
I think parts of Illinois and parts of Indiana are approaching a total loss. I was hoping a little moisture would boast things. But that hasn't happened. I was shocked yesterday when I walked deep into our corn fields. There were big ears on the outside few rows, but when you got into it was not much of anything. You can sure get fooled by looking at corn from the road. I think planting the high populations recommended by seed companies will hurt. How can corn planted four inches apart survive drought? Scary part is lead article in Yahoo yesterday said Pacific Ocean has warmed 5 to 7 degrees this year killing pankton which in turn is killing 30% or more of certain fish and bird species. Scientists are worried that this may be gobal warming worsening. However, the Pentagon study fears it may trigger the next ice age. Well we'd better befriend our Canadian neighbors and make room for them in our houses if that happens.
agman said:
Well, I suppose those r-calf losers won't be trying to close the border now, as they'll be wanting to ship their calves north to feed them on cheap Canadian feedgrains. It might be hypocritical, but that never stopped them before as long as it makes them money.
