Big Muddy rancher
Well-known member
They were saying that packers were closing some plants in a effort to increase margins. Should ranchers decrease supplys to increase margins?
Big Muddy rancher said:They were saying that packers were closing some plants in a effort to increase margins. Should ranchers decrease supplys to increase margins?
Jason said:Explain how prices in the US climbed even after the border with Canada was opened then?
Supplies climbed and so did the price.
Jason said:Explain how prices in the US climbed even after the border with Canada was opened then?
Supplies climbed and so did the price.
Sandhusker said:Jason said:Explain how prices in the US climbed even after the border with Canada was opened then?
Supplies climbed and so did the price.
Maybe there's more than one factor that effects prices?
conman said:That is how free markets work, BMR. That is what lead to the recent run up in beef prices.
Jason said:Explain how prices in the US climbed even after the border with Canada was opened then?
Supplies climbed and so did the price.
Jason said:Conman says a reduced supply of cattle led to the recent run up of prices.
conman said:That is how free markets work, BMR. That is what lead to the recent run up in beef prices.
That's when I called him on HIS one factor cause and effect.
Jason said:Explain how prices in the US climbed even after the border with Canada was opened then?
Supplies climbed and so did the price.
3 and 4 posts later, conman and sandbagger can't recall what was posted by conman.
Talk about reading comprehension.
Conman types it and can't even understand it.
Big Muddy rancher said:This thread didn't really go the direction I had figured it would. I just posted it because I had heard of what the packers were doing to ensure their survival. But as ranchers when prices are high we retain Hfrs. at a high cost to produce more animals so that the cost will be forced down. Then we complain about it.
Mike said:Big Muddy rancher said:This thread didn't really go the direction I had figured it would. I just posted it because I had heard of what the packers were doing to ensure their survival. But as ranchers when prices are high we retain Hfrs. at a high cost to produce more animals so that the cost will be forced down. Then we complain about it.
We will never get all (or most) of the producers to stick together and hold or sell cattle to influence prices one way or the other. There are simply too many with debts to pay and living expenses that have to be paid when due.
But take the 4-5 big players on the next level who are gambling with stockholders money would have more of a chance.
I agree with you though, cycles are usually caused on the producer end. The result of an unorganized market. If we were to plan against it I would expect the term "Collusion" to be thrown out there too.
Do you think a gutsy farm manager ( or smart business manager) would be selling all his bred cows and heifers at these high prices? When is the bubble going to burst and how do you prepare for it :???:Big Muddy rancher said:This thread didn't really go the direction I had figured it would. I just posted it because I had heard of what the packers were doing to ensure their survival. But as ranchers when prices are high we retain Hfrs. at a high cost to produce more animals so that the cost will be forced down. Then we complain about it.
cowzilla said:Do you think a gutsy farm manager ( or smart business manager) would be selling all his bred cows and heifers at these high prices? When is the bubble going to burst and how do you prepare for it :???:Big Muddy rancher said:This thread didn't really go the direction I had figured it would. I just posted it because I had heard of what the packers were doing to ensure their survival. But as ranchers when prices are high we retain Hfrs. at a high cost to produce more animals so that the cost will be forced down. Then we complain about it.
Econ101 said:Sandhusker said:Jason said:Explain how prices in the US climbed even after the border with Canada was opened then?
Supplies climbed and so did the price.
Maybe there's more than one factor that effects prices?
Always. That was in the guts of some of the arguments I had with Agman. Different time periods have different factors and they have to be looked at with that in mind. Some factors overide other factors even though both may be at play and both may be important. This discussion is not one I want to get into with Jason because he just doesn't have the aptitude or willingness and it would be a waste of time.
Sometimes you have to realize you can't teach a dog to read (especially when they want to go around playing and biting) so it is just not worth your time to try.
Dancing with a circus chicken is a lot more fun.
What if you sell all the cows and keep your best heifers and buy a few. Go COLD TURKEY no calfing for 1 maybe 2 years just background . You avoided the taxman but still have inventory to get back in . I read a story written by Allan Nation in The Stockman Grassfarmer and he said to survive a sliding market you have to have the LIGHTEST animal so that you lose the least :!: just wondering what you guys think about this.A guy might have to rollover (background) 2 or 3 times?Jason said:Gosh dang it Soap, your bang on again :wink:
The tax issue is the major reason for not selling cowherds off at the prices US producers are seeing.
If a person had the tax ability to sell off and buy back cows in maybe 2-3 years, it could be a great business decision. Could be because, what if cows don't drop that far? What will you do for the 2-3 years for income? Will the cows you buy back be good enough to start up at full speed again?
The slightly easier but equally as "gutsy" move would be to sell off heifers while others are buying or holding them back. Then holding heifers while others are selling them at lower prices.
Things like drought and old cows kinda mess with making the best business decisions.
cowzilla said:What if you sell all the cows and keep your best heifers and buy a few. Go COLD TURKEY no calfing for 1 maybe 2 years just background . You avoided the taxman but still have inventory to get back in . I read a story written by Allan Nation in The Stockman Grassfarmer and he said to survive a sliding market you have to have the LIGHTEST animal so that you lose the least :!: just wondering what you guys think about this.A guy might have to rollover (background) 2 or 3 times?Jason said:Gosh dang it Soap, your bang on again :wink:
The tax issue is the major reason for not selling cowherds off at the prices US producers are seeing.
If a person had the tax ability to sell off and buy back cows in maybe 2-3 years, it could be a great business decision. Could be because, what if cows don't drop that far? What will you do for the 2-3 years for income? Will the cows you buy back be good enough to start up at full speed again?
The slightly easier but equally as "gutsy" move would be to sell off heifers while others are buying or holding them back. Then holding heifers while others are selling them at lower prices.
Things like drought and old cows kinda mess with making the best business decisions.
agman said:Econ101 said:Sandhusker said:Maybe there's more than one factor that effects prices?
Always. That was in the guts of some of the arguments I had with Agman. Different time periods have different factors and they have to be looked at with that in mind. Some factors overide other factors even though both may be at play and both may be important. This discussion is not one I want to get into with Jason because he just doesn't have the aptitude or willingness and it would be a waste of time.
Sometimes you have to realize you can't teach a dog to read (especially when they want to go around playing and biting) so it is just not worth your time to try.
Dancing with a circus chicken is a lot more fun.
As if you know what all those factors are!!! Who are you kidding? You had to be told what per capita supplies of beef were doing Conman. Have you forgotten that important revelation about your limited knowledge? Do you still believe prices only go up when supplies go down?!!!!