Ranching and the future.

[katrina]

through the ring this time........ The kids and I weighted a selection to check the weights....

 

[DiamondSCattleCo]

Rod, the :wink: and :lol: means a joke...as usual, I'm in general agreement with you. S.A. beef is factored into the global market now...my point is that there isn't enough room for expansion to produce enough beef to replace Can-Am production. But certainly the global food companies are going to do what they can to reduce what they have to pay for our cattle.

<chuckle> I need to pay attention to smileys.

SA beef is factored in, but there is a limit to how much can come in with tariffs over that amount. This helps bolster demand for Can-Am within our respective borders. If those tariffs drop, the big guys will send every single thing they can north, because our consumers can afford to spend much more on beef than your average South American.

And that doesn't include Mongolia. I know I sound like a broken record when I keep mentioning it, but they've got more acres of grassland capable of sustaining cattle than we have in all of North America. It won't be long until Cargill or Tyson introduce North American beef genetics into that market. Then the market for China that we cattlemen hope will open will be gone completely, and the excess will pour into our borders.

I dunno about you, but I'm unable to find any laborers in my area who will work for a bowl of rice for each family member. :wink:

Rod

 

[Badlands]

Interesting viewpoints.

I said that all that would be left are those who could find a niche to service.

So, how can the majority be a niche? Isn't that an oxymoron?

Are you suggesting that only a small percentage of the numbers of what we have will be left in production?



Soapweed, did you go back and buy more bulls this year from the same guy whose bulls made your cows bigger than you thought they were?


Badlands

 

[bjb-iowa]

I second what Soapweed said. . .Keep your cows in the middle of the road. .. .And, I have some experience with carcass cattle. . spent 7 years in a row on the wash rack at Chicago washing carcass steers. . .we won it once. . .And, in 2003 my son won the Carcass Show at the National Junior Angus Show with a calf we raised. . .

Over the years I have learned the following. . . select carcass steers with small testicles. .. .there is an inverse correlation to testicle size and rib eye size. . .smaller the nuts on a 5 month old calf = the bigger the loin eye at harvest. .. no kidding

Select carcass steers from mothers with a great deal of "jump muscle". .. and obvious muscle on top of the loin. . .However, you can expect a great deal of calving trouble from those gals. . . my experience is the more obvious the muscle = the smaller the birth canal. . .better measure the pelvic on your heifers if you are using carcass traits as a selection tool. FROM EXPERIENCE I CAN SAY BE VERY CAREFUL ABOUT LINE BREEDING.

My wife and I run 40 Registered Angus Cows as a second job. My belief is to look at the "raw ultra-sound" numbers. .. loin eye and imf raw score and back fat. . .I do not believe the EPD's. . . However, if you look at most of the papers the accuracy is at 10% or below....A lot of high priced animals have been sold where (in my opinion) the accuracy was too low to be of any value.

I prize heifers with a little larger than breed average rib eye. the breed average is 9.3 square inches. With a little more than the average back fat (they'll be easy keepers) WHICH ARE FEMININE. . .keep some lines and angles. . . I will cull any heifer which looks masculine or will not flesh. . .

Some one mentioned that a lot of carcass steers are hard doers. . Yes and no. . .We have had them both ways. We had a steer in 2002 that gained 3.75 pounds per day for 200 days. Consequently, when we got to the carcass show he cut .55 back fat and ended up 10th at the National Show. My advice would be to watch the EPD's for yearling weight and follow them. If their momma and daddy produce hot gaining cattle their babies probably will be too. By the way that steer cut a PRIME 15.8 loin, was YG 2, carring .5 cover

My bulls averaged 15.5 square inch rib eyes the last two years. The breed average is 12.3. But, you have to watch scrotal size closely to maintain fertility. . .For example, a year ago I had a bull ultra sound a 17.1 square inch loin eye. . .his scrotal size was only 32 centimeters. . he had a lot of live sperm but the vet wouldn't cut a "fertility" exam on him. . . so, I sold him in the beef. The USDA measured the loin eye at 16.8 sq in. 10 days after he was ultra-sounded. Gave me some degree of belief in my ultra-sound tech.

To summarize these ramblings. . .
1) Select "girlie" looking females
2) If you select for rib eye. . . .watch the scrotal on your bulls. . . There will be problems in the years ahead in the Angus breed.
3) Watch the EPD's on birth weight and yearling weight. . .
4) Never select for a single trait

 

[Soapweed]

Soapweed, did you go back and buy more bulls this year from the same guy whose bulls made your cows bigger than you thought they were?


Badlands

I tend to kind of spread out my bull business. Wherever the best bang for the buck is to be had, that is where I buy bulls. Being real happy with the calves this year from bulls I bought last year (which is a new source for me), I bought some more there this year.

It is hard to pass up big bulls from a breeder if they are in a pen with smaller bulls, and they are all priced the same. I do for sure try to stay away from tall lanky "horsey" looking bulls, but usually the breeders have already made steers of that type anyway. The same with females, I try not to keep any of the horsey types.

On the subject of scrotal circumference, that is an issue that I don't pay any attention to at all. In the past, some of the Charolais bulls we've used all had small scrotums and they resembled big white steers. We never suffered open cows because of this. It didn't worry me at the time, because fertility in the females wasn't a consideration as they were all sold as terminal cross feeder heifers, anyway.

I also well remember the time my dad bought five new Hereford bulls one winter. They all got pushed away from the windbreak by his other bulls on a night when the chill factor dipped down to fifty degrees below zero. The two bulls that had large "desirable" scrotums got ruined, while the other three with small ones tucked their's up enough that they weren't hurt. I've been a doubting Thomas of all the hoopla about "bigger better scrotums" ever since. To me it is just a buzz word with little actual meaning.

 

[Badlands]

Soapweed,

You are a wise man.


Badlands

 

[DiamondSCattleCo]

I said that all that would be left are those who could find a niche to service.

So, how can the majority be a niche? Isn't that an oxymoron?

Are you suggesting that only a small percentage of the numbers of what we have will be left in production?

I mean a niche as in "a minority percentage of overall beef sales world wide". In Canada and the US, we do have some unique geography, soil conditions, reasearchers and livestock that allows us to produce certain types of beef economically and of a higher quality than elsewhere in the world. I hope that our producers will fulfill a WORLDWIDE demand servicing niches that other countries' beef simply cannot get into economically. I believe these niches will provide a healthy markup above cheap commodity beef, so demand for this beef will likely never exceed commodity beef.

Does this mean there will be fewer animals in Canada and the US? Probably, but not necessarily. We possess relatively few animals in comparison to the world, and those relative numbers will decline as the "cheap" countries come online with their production.

Rod

 

[BRG]

I don't think we will be producing any less cattle in the states. For 1, we are constantly getting better at grass management and better corn yields. We will be able to run more cattle on less acres. Number 2, the population is growing big time, and we will need to produce more food to feed all the people. Just a guess, but I think the population is growing as fast or faster around the world, than the countries in South America can increase their numbers with quality beef.

 

[Jinglebob]

I don't think we will be producing any less cattle in the states. For 1, we are constantly getting better at grass management and better corn yields. We will be able to run more cattle on less acres. Number 2, the population is growing big time, and we will need to produce more food to feed all the people. Just a guess, but I think the population is growing as fast or faster around the world, than the countries in South America can increase their numbers with quality beef.

I really like the way you think!

And I believe you just may be right.

Always seemed easier to me to be an optimist than a pessimist. :wink:

 

[cutterone]

I've been one of the biggest promoters in the area of quality and improvement and I hate to sound pesimistic, but I am, and realistic. The truth is guys that quality won't amount to a hill of beans in the future! We are all being sold down the river by Wall Street, the Gov't ( which is controled by big business), and foriegn investors and governments. They control the tide and just as the Wall Marts have only purchased and sold by price rather than quality so will beef.
93% of the population controls the 7% (agricultural property & products)
To them land is better suited for highways, investor properties to build more recreational facilities, condo development, wildlife sancuaries, and the like. They will use up the resources such as grassland and corn for their thurst for gasoline and money making pursuits until there is nothing left. They have no loyalty, no respect for anything or anyone; only to satisfy their own desires. Things that were build with quality materials, handmade, and lasting value have been ran out of town by price. We may have the best quality beef in the world but we also have some of the highest costing inputs and labor competing with countries using subsidies, cheap labor, and our good old USA subsidising those countries. The future of the beef industry won't be decided by quality or genetics but rather by big business and price.

 

[Denny]

I don't think we will be producing any less cattle in the states. For 1, we are constantly getting better at grass management and better corn yields. We will be able to run more cattle on less acres. Number 2, the population is growing big time, and we will need to produce more food to feed all the people. Just a guess, but I think the population is growing as fast or faster around the world, than the countries in South America can increase their numbers with quality beef.

I believe your correct.Another thing that is going to increase demand is the income of the people in these poorer countries like China for instance.As the workers earn more they want all the luxeries that go with it and in those countries protein's are a luxery they will pay for.And Beef top's this list.

Every generation has had obstycle's to overcome I see a bright future in agriculture.There is a younger generation of ambitous hard working rancher's and farmer's stepping up to the task.



Utilization of by-products will keep the beef industry a viable and profitable industry.

 

[MoGal]

You all think if we improve our beef genetics then of course we'll provide something no one else can?

Are you saying our American farmers don't provide good quality agricultural products??? corn, soybeans, wheat, rice, etc......

Is that why they shipped it in from China?? is that why it comes from Brazil, Mexico and Argentina?

Is that why our jobs have gone overseas? You think we can't provide good quality products here?

I think you all must have blinders on or covered up with snow. Price is the name of the game and they don't care how they get it or where it comes from as long as it is cheap.

You're in for a rude awakening if you think otherwise and that's IMO. Corporate America has become greedy. Just watch the cattle prices drop drastically in the US and Canada when all these other countries vamp up their imports.

 

[Ben Roberts]

I don't think we will be producing any less cattle in the states. For 1, we are constantly getting better at grass management and better corn yields. We will be able to run more cattle on less acres. Number 2, the population is growing big time, and we will need to produce more food to feed all the people. Just a guess, but I think the population is growing as fast or faster around the world, than the countries in South America can increase their numbers with quality beef.

Global demand in the developing world will double by 2020 from 1995, we are already twelve years into this demand increase. Has the United States and Canada, had an increase in it's cow herd size? Cattle numbers worldwide one billion 35 million head, beef cow numbers worldwide 224 million head, with China having 29% of those beef cows, Brazil 23%, United States at 15% of the total.

With the United States packing industry growth in South America and the demand for protein in the developing nations.

poultry- 85% increase from 1995-2020
beef- 80% " " " "
pork- 45% " " " "

How do you see an increase in the cow herd, in the United States or Canada. We can't service this demand increase, at a price a developing nation can pay. China and Brazil, can and will service this demand.

Best Regards
Ben Roberts

 

[BRG]

I never said we will run more cattle, I said we will run more cattle on less acres. Saying with all the land development out their the ag acres will become less and less every year, but the corn yields are constantly increasing and with the right management and intensive grazing techniques, the cows per acre will increase as well.

These other countries will also increase their production, but the South American governments have not been stable and the transportation is not available yet with roads not even developed in alot of places yet. Not saying all that won't improve, but it all takes alot of time. China will also increase and improve, but, they have way more people than the rest of the world and I believe their ag acres will disapear faster than ours will.

Also, you need to remember that alot of these other countries are about where we were in the 1940's. Saying, that they use a shovel instead of a tract loader. Yes these other countrie can do it alot cheaper than we can, but we still have advantages that they do not.

Also, we are leaps and bound ahead of them in quality of cattle. Price does decide alot, but we are not talking about the consumers buying cloths, shoes, cars, or house decorations. We are talking about buying food, and I personally don't know of anyone that will buy something that tastes bad over something that is good, just because it is a couple bucks cheaper. Everyone likes a good meal, no matter what kind of a budget you are on.

 

[Badlands]

If your next protein source was going to be a grub or a cricket, you don't really care if the beef was good quality or had a pedigree.


Crude point, but one that several of the Chinese and African graduate students have affirmed for me.


Most of us make our points from our point of view with no regard to the price/ethnic/social structures of another country.


Badlands

 

[BRG]

Point taken, but their are alot of people that don't eat grubs to survive. :wink:

 

[PPRM]

It is the growing wealthy in countries such as China that will fuel demand for our Beef..Managers of the Manufacturing for instance....

I say this because it is a mistake to point to the $1 an hour laborer as the source or reason why it wont happen. Personally, I think it will and is happening,

PPRM

 

[Ben Roberts]

It is the growing wealthy in countries such as China that will fuel demand for our Beef..Managers of the Manufacturing for instance....

I say this because it is a mistake to point to the $1 an hour laborer as the source or reason why it wont happen. Personally, I think it will and is happening,

PPRM

Where is it happening, today?

Best Regards
Ben Roberts

 

[Badlands]

Point taken, but their are alot of people that don't eat grubs to survive.

Right, BRG, they are in the already developed nations with flat or only slightly rising demand for beef.

In the nations with developing economies, quality as we define it will be of insignificant importance. Even in the already developed nations, quality as we define it is insignificant in terms of total volume of sales. It's really only in the USA, CA and Japan, that folks get heated up about marbling. And that isn't the largest part of the volume in those countries.

Even here in the USA, the biggest portion of the market is not for "quality" product.

Badlands

 

[BRG]

What about Europe. I spent 6 weeks over there, mostly in Germany, but some in Italy, and France and a few smaller countries as well. I made it a point to go to the meat counter and to check it out. They did cut the meat different, but they were selling some darn good looking slabs. The apartment we stayed at in Germany had a really good steak house just down the street. The German's love good food. I am sure they would not want a poor tasting product either. I never ate much beef in Italy, instead I ate alot of seafood pasta , but in France, on their menus they had REA steaks and Serloins.