DSCC: "I also have no need to blame, however I do feel the the market is slowly breaking down based on my own observations. I have children and want to ensure that the lifestyle that I love is still here for them when they grow up. For me, that transcends market efficiency and a corporation's right to profits. I feel that the current corporate enviroment, both in the cattle industry, and in other areas of our lives is restricting our ability to 'live a good clean life'."
The best thing you can do for yourself is get an intimate understanding of packer and retailer profitability to bury those concerns. Don't listen to these thumbsucking packer blamers, go do your own research. Look at what you've learned here about red meat yield, costs of processing, and SRM removal. Heck your $600+ profit dwindled to $93 just by what you had not considered. Wouldn't you be doing yourself a favor to further that education?
Now take the next step and learn about the value of edible and inedible ofal, hides, tongues, livers, tripe, etc. etc. Learn about the amount of trim from a carcass and the value of different categories of lean ground beef. Learn about the prices of middle meats and the percentage of select beef and no roll and how it's priced. Learn about the costs associated with the retail beef industry, how "featured prices" (sell it or smell it) affect average prices. How product that is not sold by expiration date has to be discarded despite the costs of processing.
Keep in mind that a lot of the prices that are reported are for "choice" beef when Select and No Roll are also part of the mix and priced cheaper.
Then and only then will your speculation end and you fully start to understand that the profit margins in processing and at the retail level are as tight as they are going to get. Don't listen to these blaming organizations. They don't have a clue. They spend most of their time trying to defend their own ignorance.
When you start to realize just how much of that carcass is utilized AND PAID FOR by these larger more efficient packers, you will begin to appreciate economies of scale. Like I told you, my local locker plant has to pay to have his ofal hauled off. Do you think he can pay you what your cattle would be worth if that ofal had value?
I can't remember whether I told you this or not but Mike Callicrate is one of the most outspoken packer blamers in the U.S. He was the one telling everyone that packers and retailers were making $400 per head. In R-CULT's publication, he actually stated that he was paying a top premium of $50 for the cattle he bought for his "born, raised, and processed in the U.S." branded beef program. The article then goes on to say that he charged consumers 10% - 20% more for his product than the commodity beef industry that he has been claiming IS RAPING CONSUMERS. The article goes on to say that he had yet to realize a profit and claimed "consumer apathy" as one of the reasons.
WHERE'S THE CONSISTANCY IN HIS ARGUMENTS????
If the commodity retail and packing industry is making $400 per head, wouldn't it be logical to assume that Mike could at least break even charging consumers 10% - 20% more for "born, raised, and processed in the U.S." beef products? He was on the ground floor on promoting "U.S. beef" and he can't even break even????
It's this type of misinformation and these types of blatant lies that have creating so much hype and histeria in this industry. The LMA gave Mike a voice and sent him on the road to "BWAME DA PACKAH".
DSCC: "If everyone had to purchase their cattle in the barn, then the order buyers wouldn't have smaller orders then. The packer needs the same number of cattle each week, whether they get them from the barn or private treaty."
This is the same argument about selling feeder calves off the place vs. selling feeder calves in the sale barn. I can tell you within $2 per cwt. what 550 lb. feeder calves will average in most barns in SD at any given time. How? Just by looking at the breakeven feeder calf index on the DTN. Most calves are bought at breakeven levels or slightly higher with $1 - $3 cwt. difference for quality. I have watched this thing for 10 years and it nails it. WHY? Because corn prices are fairly constant across the feeding belt, the futures price for fat cattle is the same for everyone, and the other costs associated with feeding are fairly constant. Everyone pretty much factors in the same costs and end price when figuring what they can pay for feeder calves. They gamble on weather.
I can price calves off the place within $2 of what they will bring in the barns minus the shrink, stress, commission, and extra trucking without even looking at the salebarn reports.
My point? Fat cattle and feeder cattle can be priced fairly off the place or out of the feedlot without the added stress, extra shrink, and additional trucking associated with the barns.
Does this mean I do not advocate selling in the sale barn? Hardly. We sell our calves in the sale barn currently because we simply do not have enough to make sufficient load lots but I would have no trouble pricing them off the place or buying calves off the place if we had sufficient load lots.
DSCC:
"I disagree with your idea that larger means more efficient ALWAYS. Its simply not so. Larger plants are able to able to operate on economies of scale and reduce costs/animal. This is a form of efficiency, I grant you that, however I would argue that the local butcher who buys their stock direct from the producer is even more efficient. No middle men, straight from producer to consumer with only 1 middleman. And butcher meat is often much cheaper than grocery store meat, at least in my area."
I didn't say ALWAYS but with the current packing industry structure, there is no doubt that they are as efficient, from a cost side, as they can get.
With that said, I do believe there is more opporunity out there with new product development and enhancement that can add to large packer profitability and allow these larger plants to pay even more for our cattle and still compete with the other packing companies.
You need to ask yourself one simple question and consider the answer. Why have so many smaller packing plants been replaced by larger more efficient plants if they were profitable? When you ask them they will tell you that they couldn't compete. Well if they couldn't compete, there is obviously competition out there isn't there? They couldn't pay up like the larger plants and still keep their doors open. The larger plants sell everything from the nose to the rectum and add as much value to that carcass as they can so they can still make a profit and buy cattle competitively against THEIR competition.
As a side note, I always find it humourous when those who are bitching about packer profits start complaining about the wages that these packers are paying their employees. WHERE'S THE LOGIC??? If these packers pay their employees more, they will have less to pay for cattle.
NO COMPRENDE'!
DSCC: "Perhaps, but having more people bidding still gives us a check and balance to prevent the 2 or 3 volume buyers from colluding and driving prices down."
To suggest that Excel, Tyson, Swift & Co., Greater Omaha, and USPB are not in competition for the same cattle is ridiculous.
DSCC: "1) Its not how the packers arrive at their final decision on what to pay that I have a problem with. What I find problematic is that they are allowed to generate contracts using last weeks market average as a basis. This isn't good. It provides them with too much impetus to mess with the auction price. Or if the conspiracy doesn't do it for you, then as more and more people deliver straight to the packer on a contract basis, the barn becomes less competitive and the basis for the market is killed."
So what if formula cattle are based on last week's weekly weighted average of the cash market. SO WHAT? You know that before you agree to sell that way.
The arrogance of these packer blamers that think they need to save feeders from their own marketing decisions is nothing short of amazing. Every feeder has the cash market option if they so choose.
Don't you see the irony in these conflicting arguments? On one hand, the packer blamers are arguing that grid pricing should not be based on a weekly weighted average the week prior because it could result in "MARKET MANIPULATION". On the other hand, they are arguing that the market was manipulated because the cash price on the following week was lower. HELLO? I guess "market manipulation" depends on who got the lower price huh?
Do you realize that there is just as many times when the cash market the following week is higher than the previous formula price so how can that price be manipulated.
Also consider this, if one packer drops his price in the cash market because he has most of his needs filled in the formula market, HE'S NOT THE ONLY PACKER BUYING CATTLE. It's going to be quite a coincidence if every packer has his needs filled in the formula market at exactly the same time. THINK ABOUT IT!
Not only that but every single feeder has multiple packers to sell to with multiple pricing systems each. He is certainly not locked into one marketing scheme or one packer.
Is it not in the best interests of a packing company to procure cattle in any way they can???
Also consider the fact that forward contracts were initiated BY PRODUCERS who wanted to minimize their basis risk.
Also consider that most of these packer pricing scheme arguments are coming from those WHO DON'T EVEN SELL TO THE PACKER. They sell to the feeder.
It's insane! All driven by an ignorance of the packing industry.
DSCC: " a contract based on last weeks market price still gives them the impetus to mess with the cash price to try and garner more contracts. Or, a less conspiracy oriented approach: If they're guaranteed X number of contract animals, why bother with the cash market at all? Cash price falls, and so does the contract price."
Then how can you explain the fact that there is times when the cash market following the formula market is higher than the previous week's formula price???
What you guys fail to understand is that these major packers are competing with other major packers for the same cattle. IF THEY DON'T PAY UP, SOMEONE ELSE WILL!!! It's that damn simple.
DSCC: "As I said, perhaps maybe we need to go the other way and force the packers to accept small lots of cattle."
FORCE, why is it always FORCE. Why not start your own packing company that accepts small load lots and see how you fair.
THE PACKER DOES NOT OWE YOU A LIVING!
DSCC: "If some cow/calf producers want to sign poorly thought-out contracts that hurt the market, then I think they should be the ones to go out of business."
So what right do you have to save them from themselves? If they know their expenses and lock in a profit, A PROFIT IS A PROFIT!
DSCC: "Because cash market basis contracting is bad for the industry. Whether it be a small time producer or a big producer signing that kind of contract, it HURTS the entire industry. Free markets assume educated buyers and sellers. If a seller is signing a contract that is ill-conceived and will lead to industry damage, then that producer either needs to be 1) educated or 2) prevented from signing the contract."
You obviously do not even understand forward contracts. Do you buy insurance? If you buy insurance, then you are contributing to the same type of arrangement. It' no different. If I know what my expenses are and I can lock in a profit by singing a forward contract, WHY SHOULD I NOT BE ALLOWED TO???
Does that affect the market? IT COULD, YES! If a packer procures his needs by contract, he needs less cattle in the cash market. So what is the alternative??? Everyone sells in the "socialized" sale barn market where everyone receives the same price for their cattle regardless of quality. Grid pricing was initiated by producers who wanted to get paid for the quality of their cattle. Forward contracts were also initiated by producers who wanted to manage their financial risk. YOU IN TURN WANT TO TELL THESE PRODUCERS THAT THEY DIDN'T KNOW WHAT THEY WERE DOING.
You want to lecture on arrogance? I think the attitude that you need to save feeders from their pricing mechanisms is the epitomy of arrogance.
DSCC: "Of course, if I'd went for the 8 cents above average, I would have missed the 10 - 15 cent premium that I ended up getting at the barn."
Only because the market moved in your favor during the time period between the two bids. Had you been tracking the price of corn and boxed beef, you would probably understand why the price moved.
DSCC: "Now lets just assume that I had taken the 6 cent premium, or even the 8 cent premium. That buyer would have left my ranch with part of his order filled. So when he went to the barn that week, he would have been bidding just a little less aggressively and maybe pushed down the cash price by a penny or two."
That's supply and demand! Or the price of corn could have risen and the futures market risen allowing him to pay more the next week despite having your cattle already bought. Who is going to feel bad then?
DSCC: "So lets assume I'd been offered a 17 cent premium and taken it. Same effect on the cash price. It would be drove down, although less so because the buyer would realize he could the animals cheaper at the barn. But that week, the cash price would be off by just a hair."
You can't predict how many buyers are going to need cattle at any given time nor can you predict how corn prices and futures prices will move.
Using your logic, you shouldn't sell your calves at the sale barn either because an order buyer that buys your calves is going to pay less for the next calves because you already filled part of his order. SAME LOGIC!
DSCC: "As producers, we need that open bid whether it be an open bid on deliveries or an open bid on forward contracts, it doesn't matter, but we NEED that open bid. Contract prices do have an effect on the cash price, and its often a negative effect."
What we need is a free market system that allows producers to decide for themselves what is the best way to market their cattle. NOT SOMEONE ELSE TELLING THEM HOW TO MARKET THEIR CATTLE, like the LMA does and their merry band of packer blaming followers.
DSCC: "No what Econ wants is well thought out regulations that would limit market power of corportations in general."
Conman doesn't know what he wants because he doesn't know anything. He has market manipulation conspiracy theories that he cannot prove. That's all he has.
DSCC: "Exactly, why would they go somewhere that offers true price competition and force themselves to actually pony up to the table and bid with everyone else?"
Do you honestly thing that the packers do not know what their processing expenses are? Do you think they don't know what boxed beef prices are at? That is what determines what they are going to pay regardless where they are bidding on cattle.
Another thing I failed to mention about sale barns. What if you don't like the price? You've already trucked the cattle, you've already paid the commission, you've already stressed the cattle, you've taken the cattle off feed, and you've shrunk them. So what do most guys do? They take the price rather than risking the losses of getting those cattle back on feed. When you are bid on a pen of cattle at the feedlot, if you don't like the price, you just keep feeding the cattle until you find a price you can live with.
The Nebraska Cattlemen's Association recently contracted with an outfit that trades market information for price reporting. If you report your prices, then you have access to what other feeders are being bid. HOW CAN A MARKET BE ANY MORE TRANSPARENT THAN THAT??? This is a voluntary system and it didn't require another phony government mandate to accompish either.
Soap: "Good thing the original Native Americans weren't armed enough to keep out your and my foreign-born ancestors."
HAHAHAHA! TOUCHE' SOAPWEED!!!!!
You guys think long and hard about that!!!!!
I would love to hear what a Native American had to say about you import blamers.
Conman: "SH, I have not read the proposed bill."
Then why would you make a stupid statement suggesting that nobody is trying to legislate how feeders can sell their product???
You shot your ignorant mouth off again before you knew what you were talking about.
Conman: "What I know and don't know is way beyond you almost all of the time."
Keep telling yourself that Conman. You prove your ignorance with every post you make.
Conman: "Limitations on packers being defended under the guise of taking something away from the producer will not work for me."
This is not limiting packers, it's limiting feeders and there is no justification. Every producer can sell his cattle on Angus Gene Net and "bid the grid" base price if he does not like the non negotiated base price or he can sell in the cash market. He/she does not need an ignorant packer blamer like you telling them how to sell their cattle.
This cuts at the heart of the free enterprise system.
Conman: "The judges presiding over the Pickett case, both at the lower level and the appellate level were either corrupt or incompetent."
That's what all the packer blamers say when there is no "smoking gun" to blame packers with. There was no proof of market manipulation as defined by the courts. Dropping your price to reflect your needs is not market manipulation but rather a normal supply and demand market reaction. Take it to another court Conman! Take it to feeding country in Kansas, Nebraska, or Iowa instead of Corporate blaming Alabama and see what happens. I doubt you would even find a judge willing to hear the case let alone waste everyone's time with it. It's bullsh*t and Judge Strom was smart enough to sort it out as was the 11th circuit.
If they had a powerful argument to back their case, WHY CAN'T ANY OF YOU PACKER BLAMERS BRING IT TO THE TABLE??? I'll tell you why, because it doesn't exist.
Sandbag: "Why would the prices paid for our product rise when demand for our product is lowered via cheaper replacements?"
Demand for our product is not lowered via a cheaper replacement. Cheap imported "LEAN" trimmings add value to a virtually worthless 50% "FAT" product. You cannot supply that market economically by devaluing the chuck and round. There is a market for all beef the question is AT WHAT PRICE. It's makes more business sense to import lean trimmings to blend with 50/50 trim than to devalue a product that is worth more than 70/30 lean ground beef.
How many times do I have to mention this before it sinks into your economically challenged skull?
Mike: "JURORS DO NOT NEED TO KNOW THE LAW!"
Exactly, that's why they can interpret certain actions such as dropping your price in the cash market to reflect your needs in the formula market as market manipulation. It requires a judge to know whether laws were broken or not. Judge Strom clearly stated no violation of the PSA.
~SH~