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the chief said:
agman to the chief: Evidently the only person you lead around the pole is yourself.


Tell us, again, agman, WHOSE pole do you dance around? Is the the american beef producer?

My attitude is :"If you have a good product, why not promote it? Especially if American beef producers consider their product to be favorable to the consumer. As for Toyota and beef, it is like apples and oranges. At least when someone buys a Toyota, they KNOW where it came from. In US supermarkets, we have no clue as the origin of our meat.

Since I am a consumer, you cannot put words in my mouth. I always ask the butcher where their meat is from. If he can't tell me, then I ask him why? I may not get an answer, but I am letting him know that consumers want to know.

How difficult is it for you to understand that you are but one consumer. You are not the market and you are also no Chief.
 
agman: How difficult is it for you to understand that you are but one consumer. You are not the market and you are also no Chief.

:shock: Wow. You waited till the very end to throw a shot at me :???:

How difficult is it for YOU to understand you are but one Packer? "If packers thought there was money to be made by labeling, we'd do it!"

Why would the packers want to give up on ALL those savings they realize by paying less for foreign beef to sell to the retailer. Why were fed cattle prices so low for years? Overproduction in US? NO. It's because US cattlemen were competing with a foreign product coming across the northern border that was originally from South America and put into our grocery stores.

Now, I may NOT be a chief "in your eyes" but you are certainly not a friend of Agriculture, either. Your interests lie in the bottom line of the company you work for. Mine are with the producer and the preservation of their livelihoods.

Now, in the famous words of Flo : KISS MY GRITS!
 
Chief: "Why were fed cattle prices so low for years? Overproduction in US? NO. It's because US cattlemen were competing with a foreign product coming across the northern border that was originally from South America and put into our grocery stores."

Here's a simple question that will have any import blamer scratching their heads if they don't simply dismiss it because it shatters their import blaming arguments.

1. If reduced Canadian live cattle imports was the primary reason for current fat cattle prices, why did fat cattle prices continue to rally after Canadian boxed beef imports resumed which was almost 50% of normal Canadian imports? Hmmmm???

That fact exposes your ignorance to this issue.


2. Here's another one, the packer blamers have been blaming packer concentration and captive supplies for lower cattle prices for years. Well, which one of those two factors changed to allow markets to go higher. Logic should tell anyone that if captive supplies and packer concentration were the reason for lower cattle prices one or the other would have to change to allow markets to go higher.

So which one changed Chief?

Did packers become more concentrated?

Did .06% of the captive supplies (Packer owned cattle in Canada) change the market?

Was there a reduction in packer owned cattle and forward contract cattle in the U.S.?


The fact is, you packer blamers don't have a clue what you are talking about most of the time when it comes to cattle markets. Someone has a "blame for the day" and every other blamer grabs onto it due to their inability to think for themselves.

Anybody can see how live cattle prices track with boxed beef prices to know that the packer blamer's market fundamentals are fundamentally flawed.

In no particular order, here is the reason for higher cattle prices:

Higher cattle prices were due primarily to an increase in consumer demand for beef driven by an increase in consumer discretionary spending. Consumers bought more beef because the had the money to spend on beef until the recent fuel price rally.

Secondly, the checkoff contributed to value added products for the chuck and the round that used to be ground into ground beef.

Third, the high protein diet craze was favorable to beef.

Fourth, we greatly reduced our carcass weights reducing overall production.

Fifth, prior to the recent BSE outbreak, we had greatly increased the value of our export markets.

Exports - the forgotten half of trade.
Demand - the forgotten half of the supply and demand equation.

R-CULT focuses on imports and supply.

NCBA focuses on the entire trade picture and the entire supply and demand equation.


Chief, you are welcome to make a steers attempt at addressing these facts or you can stay in your comfort zone of making generalizing statements that are unsupported by fact.



~SH~
 
Yes SH, I think you are right. There is both the supply side and the demand side of Supply and Demand. While I have never been a member of the NBCA. I lost all interest in supporting them just for that reason. They put most of their effort in working with demand and forgot all about that it is the producer who provided the supply. I don't know all the reason for increased demand. Advertising is not all because we had the check off working for a number of years when we had the low prices in the mid 90's. A time when the producers return were the lowest ever in terms of what they would buy.

Maybe the packers and those on the other end will come to their senses and realize the high prices they now pay for cattle is a result of their own lack of foresight. A smaller supply of cattle today is not so much the result of drought as it is the fact that low profits forced many out of the business. Maybe I am just looking for a scrap, but it seems that most all who belong to NBCA will continue to say it is allright to let the smaller operators fall out as they are ineficient anyway. They continue to say let us take over, we are better managers and are more efficient. I don't think most of them were ineficient or poor managers. I think they did not have the capital or the opportunities to expand enough to continue. In many cases the small man is the better manager and the most efficient the large operator can just work with smaller margins.

SH, I believe you would like to be a full time cattle producer. If that is the case. What changes in the industry would you like to see in order for you to do that?
 
Clarence: "While I have never been a member of the NBCA. I lost all interest in supporting them just for that reason. They put most of their effort in working with demand and forgot all about that it is the producer who provided the supply."

Think about that statement, how could NCBA forget about the producer when the producer and feeder makes up the majority of NCBA?

Look at the issues we debate here. R-CALF gives you their "biased opinion" and NCBA provides the bigger picture with the facts.

If the R-CALFer couldn't divert, discredit, deny, and deceive, there would be no debate.


Clarence: "I don't know all the reason for increased demand. Advertising is not all because we had the check off working for a number of years when we had the low prices in the mid 90's. A time when the producers return were the lowest ever in terms of what they would buy."

The fact is the checkoff is not going to pull cattle prices above the increase in carcass weights, above the decreased discretionary spending on beef, above the value of beef relative to pork and poultry, etc. etc.

The fact is cattle prices would have been worse during that era if not for the measely $1 per head checkoff.

Who are you going to blame for the high interest rates of the early 80's?

Packers?


Clarence: "Maybe the packers and those on the other end will come to their senses and realize the high prices they now pay for cattle is a result of their own lack of foresight."

Lack of foresight from what standpoint?

That's another "generalizing statement" with no specifics to back it.


Clarence: "A smaller supply of cattle today is not so much the result of drought as it is the fact that low profits forced many out of the business."

Who's fault is that?

What good is it going to do to blame chicken for stealing market share?

What good is it going to do to blame consumers for not buying more beef?

What good is it going to do to blame feeders for adding 30 pound to every carcass?

What good is it going to do to blame efficient ranchers for buying up their less efficient neighbors (i.e. "rancher concentration")?

Less efficient businesess are forced out of businesses every day. In the business world, unlike ranching, the government is usually not there to shore up poor management.


Clarence: "Maybe I am just looking for a scrap, but it seems that most all who belong to NBCA will continue to say it is allright to let the smaller operators fall out as they are ineficient anyway."

What's the alternative?

Have the government step in and shore up the less efficient operator?

Come up with packer conspiracies of market manipulation to blame it on?

The smaller less efficient operator will continue to be replaced by larger more efficient operations. That's just a fact of life.


Clarence: "I don't think most of them were ineficient or poor managers. I think they did not have the capital or the opportunities to expand enough to continue."

Or perhaps they were chasing rodeos and brandings around the country with new dually diesels and Featherlites when they should have been working on a marketing plan for their cattle, putting in a rotational grazing system, and putting up their hay when it had the most nutritional value.

We make choices and we face the consequences of those choices.


Clarence: "In many cases the small man is the better manager and the most efficient the large operator can just work with smaller margins."

In some cases that's true but in most cases volume spreads out the overhead costs.


Clarence: "SH, I believe you would like to be a full time cattle producer. If that is the case. What changes in the industry would you like to see in order for you to do that?"

If I wanted to ranch full time, that's what I would be doing now. Ranching is my second passion. I chose my first.

What changes would I like to see? I would like to see more and more efforts such as USPB where producers own and control their destiny.

I would like to see more producers work with eachother, rather than independently, to supply cattle to large producer driven alliances.

I think cattle producers could be much more efficient by working together than seperately.

I want to see more producer driven alliances where producers own and control their financial destiny though bottom up vertically integrated systems.


~SH~
 
Clarence said:
Yes SH, I think you are right. There is both the supply side and the demand side of Supply and Demand. While I have never been a member of the NBCA. I lost all interest in supporting them just for that reason. They put most of their effort in working with demand and forgot all about that it is the producer who provided the supply. I don't know all the reason for increased demand. Advertising is not all because we had the check off working for a number of years when we had the low prices in the mid 90's. A time when the producers return were the lowest ever in terms of what they would buy.

Maybe the packers and those on the other end will come to their senses and realize the high prices they now pay for cattle is a result of their own lack of foresight. A smaller supply of cattle today is not so much the result of drought as it is the fact that low profits forced many out of the business. Maybe I am just looking for a scrap, but it seems that most all who belong to NBCA will continue to say it is allright to let the smaller operators fall out as they are ineficient anyway. They continue to say let us take over, we are better managers and are more efficient. I don't think most of them were ineficient or poor managers. I think they did not have the capital or the opportunities to expand enough to continue. In many cases the small man is the better manager and the most efficient the large operator can just work with smaller margins.

SH, I believe you would like to be a full time cattle producer. If that is the case. What changes in the industry would you like to see in order for you to do that?

I beg to differ regarding your conclusions regarding expansion and profits. The vast majority of cow-calf producers have been very profitable since 1999. Most would have expanded if it were not for a prolonged drought. Moisture receipt in the west, south and southwest beginning last fall broke the drought in two major cow-calf regions. The northwest is the only region that remained in a drought. If you have no feed you have no choice but to liquidate regardless of profits. You also overlook a minor fact of years of declining beef demand. It is a miracle that anyone survived such a slide. It is only because of their ability to manage properly, producers and packers alike, that they survived at all. My sincere compliments to those individuals and corporations. Throughout the history of the cattle cycle drought has played a major role in every herd liquidation. Trust me, I have the research to back up that statement. Have a great day.
 
SH: "I want to see more producer driven alliances where producers own and control their financial destiny though bottom up vertically integrated systems."

Do you have any idea how to make this happen and what are the major impediments? Clue: look at the very things you defend here every day.

SH: "If I wanted to ranch full time, that's what I would be doing now. Ranching is my second passion. I chose my first."

Ranching is my second passion, too. Building a row crop farm, from scratch, with my brothers was my first...28 years and it's still going strong. No where on my list of passions does being a government worker or a worker for someone else show up other than having been there and done that. You will always be on the outside looking in because your passion and commitment is not in your ideas for changing the industry...but I'll do my best.
 
Agman, the Mexican drought coupled with NAFTA, as an outlet for those cattle, over supplied the USA market in the mid-nineties. But Clarence is right that the major packers didn't show due concern for their USA suppliers because their eye was on increasing supply option with more free trade agreements. The proof was in the growth of the Canadian cattle industry and the demise of the USA industry.
 
RobertMac said:
Agman, the Mexican drought coupled with NAFTA, as an outlet for those cattle, over supplied the USA market in the mid-nineties. But Clarence is right that the major packers didn't show due concern for their USA suppliers because their eye was on increasing supply option with more free trade agreements. The proof was in the growth of the Canadian cattle industry and the demise of the USA industry.

Robert Mac, I appreciate your opinion but examination of factual data will not support your opinion. I believe you overlooked the fact that the U.S herd bottomed in 1990 at 95.8 million head and expanded for six years peaking in 1996 at 103.6 million head. That far outweighs any increase in imports from NAFTA. Imports in 1990 2.135 million head, in 1996 we imported 1.965 million head.

Additionally, you have forgotten the drought and $5.00+/bushel corn in the 1995-96 period. The change in corn prices alone devalued the price of feeders and calves by $120+ per head, all other factors being equal. Do you not think that is important? Do you think imports outweighed the impact of $5.00+ corn prices.

Do you realize the imports from Canada, product plus cattle, is nearly equal to our total exports of beef? The added value of those imports exceeded any cost of those imports. Interesting question, if we did not import would we have any exports?

The factors that you and Clarence fail to cite are much more relevant to the market than the factors you do cite. point: A little knowledge is worse than no knowledge as it tends to lead one to the wrong conclusions.
 
Clarence said:
Yes SH, I think you are right. There is both the supply side and the demand side of Supply and Demand. While I have never been a member of the NBCA. I lost all interest in supporting them just for that reason.

They put most of their effort in working with demand and forgot all about that it is the producer who provided the supply. I don't know all the reason for increased demand. Advertising is not all because we had the check off working for a number of years when we had the low prices in the mid 90's. A time when the producers return were the lowest ever in terms of what they would buy.

{Clarence, while it is true that much of the checikoff dollar is put into advertising, that is a very expensive area and requires lots of dollars. You surely cannot deny the success of the ad campaign when eighty-some percent of people have heard the "Beef It's What's For Dinner" slogan. FACT: it is not NCBA's Policy division that makes such decisions. It is the CBB and/or the Federation of State Beef Councils, with many or most of the projects originating at the local or state level. FACT: NCBA, as a contracting agency, has been very successful in convincing others to partner their dollars with checkoff dollars allowing more work to be done for the beef industry. New product development is one such area. Research is another. Personally, I believe much of the increase in demand is directly related to the nutrient research and projects getting that information to the medical and nutrition professions. Considering past promotion of the "white" meats as healthful and the "red" meats as harmful to health, it is VERY BIG NEWS to learn that many cuts of beef have very little more fat than poultry, and FAR MORE of the most vital nutrients. And watch for results of the research into the fatty acids in beef. I think that will be very exciting and will place beef very well in the category of beneficial naturally ocurring fats. MRJ}

Maybe the packers and those on the other end will come to their senses and realize the high prices they now pay for cattle is a result of their own lack of foresight. A smaller supply of cattle today is not so much the result of drought as it is the fact that low profits forced many out of the business. 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Maybe I am just looking for a scrap, but it seems that most all who belong to NBCA will continue to say it is allright to let the smaller operators fall out as they are ineficient anyway. They continue to say let us take over, we are better managers and are more efficient. I don't think most of them were ineficient or poor managers. I think they did not have the capital or the opportunities to expand enough to continue. In many cases the small man is the better manager and the most efficient the large operator can just work with smaller margins.

{Clarence, when, where, or by whom have you ever heard or seen any leader or staff person from NCBA make such statements?Shouldn't you back up such a serious accusation with a fact or two?

NCBA has provided at very low cost, many, many workshops and speakers to help producers, especially the smaller one, find ways to improve their cattle operation, or manage their operations in ways to improve their profitablility.

It isn't always injections of big amounts of capital that makes the difference.Taking care of the small problems and paying attention to the most rewarding opportunities for improvement often shows real pay offs for small ranchers.

It has far more to do with attitude. The person who thinksthe world is against him, he can't do anything about it is defeating himself far more than any evil "big" operator or corporation can. The man who believes he is defeated usually is, while the one who has optimism and a can do attitude can overcome far greater obstacles than the defeatist.

MRJ}

SH, I believe you would like to be a full time cattle producer. If that is the case. What changes in the industry would you like to see in order for you to do that?
 
RM: "Do you have any idea how to make this happen and what are the major impediments?"

The biggest impediment is to compete against the much more efficient packer which directly contradicts the packer blamer's opinion that there is no competition in the packing industry.


RM: "You will always be on the outside looking in because your passion and commitment is not in your ideas for changing the industry...but I'll do my best."

To the contrary, I have been involved in the cattle business my entire life and still am. I made a choice between full time and part time due to circumstances that are none of your business.

Your focus on part time/full time shows the level of your desperation. Like a typical empty handed packer blamer, when you cannot contradict a single thing I have stated with opposing facts, you resort to your feeble attempts to discredit me personally.

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz!

You got nothing on me until you can contradict what I have stated with opposing facts.

I know many, many progressive non blaming cattlemen that also support the facts as opposed to the packer blaming rhetoric. Since they are full time, what are you going to use to discredit them?

Back to the drawing board huh?


~SH~
 
RM: "Do you have any idea how to make this happen and what are the major impediments?"

SH: "The biggest impediment is to compete against the much more efficient packer which directly contradicts the packer blamer's opinion that there is no competition in the packing industry. "

And that's all you've got to answer my question...and you don't even address the first part!?!?!

SH, when it comes to personal discrediting, name calling, and blaming...I'm out of your league and I challenge you to find anyone that will support your allegation. Your choice of career shows your lack of commitment...and passion without commitment is only rhetoric.
 
RM: "And that's all you've got to answer my question...and you don't even address the first part!?!?!"

USPB proved how to "Get 'R Done"!

Take their plan as a blue print to controlling your destiny.


RM: "Your choice of career shows your lack of commitment...and passion without commitment is only rhetoric."

Wrong again!

My choice of career shows a HIGHER committment and passion for another aspect of ranching, predator control. That does not circumvent my committment to the cattle industry which I have backed up financially many times over. I remain financially invested in the cattle industry.

If I didn't have committment and passion for cattle production, I wouldn't still be involved in it and I would not waste my time presenting the facts on the cattle/beef industry to corporate packer blamers like you to offset your rhetorical, factually void arguments.


NEXT!


~SH~
 
Agman, you would think I would learn that I will always come up short in a factual debate with you, but it is fun and, more importantly, informative. That was a poor attempt at making this point...it only takes a small margin of over supply(or only the anticipation of over supply) to push market prices down, but a shortage of supply has to be real and imminent to force prices higher. Just my uninformed observation of commodity markets.

Agman: "Interesting question, if we did not import would we have any exports?"

Weren't the bulk of our exports under utilized products in the USA market and value-added when exported?

Agman: "A little knowledge is worse than no knowledge as it tends to lead one to the wrong conclusions."

It takes a little knowledge and the recognition of wrong conclusions to gain knowledge. Experience is the best teacher!
 
The way I see it....Back aways someone said something about short supply and high demand. Don't you think that could be caused in part by US producers wanting to get as much as they could out of the BSE farce and sold many good productive cows for slaughter to cash in on the best prices they believe they would ever get for an animal again?
 

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