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What is a "good" cow?

RSL said:
And a cow bought/bred in the low part of the cycle can be less "good" than a cow at the top of the cycle and be "better". What a twisted web we weave...
:lol: :lol: :lol:
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Wow that is twisted, so twisted you lost me. :???: :? :!:
 
For simplicity let's say you buy replacements. A cow bought at the low of the cattle cycle costs less and produces over the peak of the cycle. A cow bought at the peak, costs more and has her calves at the low part of the cycle. If you strictly look at profitability without additional context, the cow purchased at the low of the cycle will have an easier chance of making more lifetime profit. That is why i think the stuff in the first part of this thread are important considerations.
 
RSL said:
For simplicity let's say you buy replacements. A cow bought at the low of the cattle cycle costs less and produces over the peak of the cycle. A cow bought at the peak, costs more and has her calves at the low part of the cycle. If you strictly look at profitability without additional context, the cow purchased at the low of the cycle will have an easier chance of making more lifetime profit. That is why i think the stuff in the first part of this thread are important considerations.
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Sounds like a contradiction to me, the cow at the beginning of the thread was a "good" cow. The cow in your example was "less" good but because she produced during the high of the cycle she was better than her good counterpart bought at on the flip side. But just think how much better you could do with the good cow all the way through because the good cow at the beginning of the thread produced for at least 9 to 10 years. That is why you agree with the first part of the thread.
 
And this twistedness is based on the assumption that the cattle cycle still exists / will continue to exist and can be somehow predicted to allow you to buy/sell at the right times. I guess a few heifer calves bought in the cheap after 2003 will have reared a few calves and been culled by now without ever seeing the high cycle.
To be sure of hitting some highs as well as lows you need some longevity. That 1986 model I culled before Christmas likely saw a few turns of the wheel :wink: What was '86 like anyway was it a high or low cycle?
 
Grassfarmer said:
And this twistedness is based on the assumption that the cattle cycle still exists / will continue to exist and can be somehow predicted to allow you to buy/sell at the right times. I guess a few heifer calves bought in the cheap after 2003 will have reared a few calves and been culled by now without ever seeing the high cycle.
To be sure of hitting some highs as well as lows you need some longevity. That 1986 model I culled before Christmas likely saw a few turns of the wheel :wink: What was '86 like anyway was it a high or low cycle?
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Grassfarmer I was considering making mention of the same thought. BSE wiped out our last potential high in the cycle and fortified the high south of the border. So far that series of unfortunate events has us closing in on an extended low of at least 10 years. The dynamics of the global meat complex may have been affected by retail concentration, processing concentration and "free trade" policies to the point of driving the traditional cattle cycle to extinction. Govt(corpratocracy) policies did nothing to protect the decimation of the North American Manufacturing sector what makes us think we will de any more favored?
 
When you look at your ranch you should look at it at an investment opportunity. Way the opportunities and their sustainability. For example if I buy a load of cows for $1300 compared to putting together a load of cows for $1050, what is the profit opportunity. Sure you can say that you will get a more consistent calf product out of the load lot compared to the put together cows. On the other hand once they are in your system you can control that consistency. So, I ask will the first year of production vary by $250. Just because she cost more doesn't mean she will stay in your system longer. When I see a pregnant cow in a lower BCS, I see a cow that can stay pregnant with very little input. That does not mean that I have to manage her the same way, it just means that she will probably stay pregnant. On the other hand when I buy a cow that has a high BCS (big, pretty with lots of flesh and cover, the kind your neighbors like to see) her probability to fall out is already increased, if I do not manage her to stay in that condition. I have a visible measure of inputs that have been put into each cow. The question is what cow fits my system and will sustain herself in my environment, whatever it may be. I would rather buy that cow that I have to feed for one year than the cow that I know I will always have to feed. Obviously it is more complicated than that, it would take awhile to go into detail.
 
Dylan Biggs said:
Grassfarmer said:
And this twistedness is based on the assumption that the cattle cycle still exists / will continue to exist and can be somehow predicted to allow you to buy/sell at the right times. I guess a few heifer calves bought in the cheap after 2003 will have reared a few calves and been culled by now without ever seeing the high cycle.
To be sure of hitting some highs as well as lows you need some longevity. That 1986 model I culled before Christmas likely saw a few turns of the wheel :wink: What was '86 like anyway was it a high or low cycle?
Click to expand...

Grassfarmer I was considering making mention of the same thought. BSE wiped out our last potential high in the cycle and fortified the high south of the border. So far that series of unfortunate events has us closing in on an extended low of at least 10 years. The dynamics of the global meat complex may have been affected by retail concentration, processing concentration and "free trade" policies to the point of driving the traditional cattle cycle to extinction. Govt(corpratocracy) policies did nothing to protect the decimation of the North American Manufacturing sector what makes us think we will de any more favored?
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:agree:
At risk of turning this into a political debate I think we have to consider this point. It would appear to me that the situation is so bad in Western Canada already that future "high priced" periods in the cattle cycle can be negated by over powerful packers and retailers. In fact if you look at the research on inflation adjusted cattle prices even the last cycle highs of around 2001/2 were record low peaks historically.


flyingS said:
When you look at your ranch you should look at it at an investment opportunity. Way the opportunities and their sustainability. For example if I buy a load of cows for $1300 compared to putting together a load of cows for $1050, what is the profit opportunity. Sure you can say that you will get a more consistent calf product out of the load lot compared to the put together cows. On the other hand once they are in your system you can control that consistency. So, I ask will the first year of production vary by $250. Just because she cost more doesn't mean she will stay in your system longer. When I see a pregnant cow in a lower BCS, I see a cow that can stay pregnant with very little input. That does not mean that I have to manage her the same way, it just means that she will probably stay pregnant. On the other hand when I buy a cow that has a high BCS (big, pretty with lots of flesh and cover, the kind your neighbors like to see) her probability to fall out is already increased, if I do not manage her to stay in that condition. I have a visible measure of inputs that have been put into each cow. The question is what cow fits my system and will sustain herself in my environment, whatever it may be. I would rather buy that cow that I have to feed for one year than the cow that I know I will always have to feed. Obviously it is more complicated than that, it would take awhile to go into detail.
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That makes a lot of assumptions around the cows you are buying flyingS. I would think you would need to know the system the cows came off before backing the lower BCS cows to stay in your system longer than the higher BCS cows. It may just work exactly the opposite - the lower BCS cows may always require more feed to get pregnant versus the fatter ones - that might be what their current body condition is telling you. Sure you don't want to be buying the fat whale that looks like she doesn't feed her calves too well and often times that kind does sell for the top money in bred sales. On the other hand you don't want to be buying the skinnies either unless you know they have a reason to be in that condition. If you had the choice of both types out of the same herd at a fall dispersal the condition would indicate to me the under producers - the lazy cows that look after themselves along with a few really top producing, well fleshed cows in the high BCS category. In the low BCS group would be the heavy milking, very productive cows and the simply poor fleshed ones. If possible my preference would be to buy the cows that are not in either category - I might miss some top performers and pick up some poor ones but on average would expect to buy a more consistent, longer lasting bunch of cows from the middle of the herd on BCS. Again it's avoiding the extremes.
 
RobertMac said:
Corpratocracy..I like your word :lol: ...mind if I borrow it sometime? :wink:
I think you are right on the cattle cycle.
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Not my word, but use it all you like :!: :lol:

I hope I am wrong, but it's hard not read the writing on the world trading wall, that is why we have been selling our own branded meats to retailers and direct to consumer since 1995, a long slow uphill grind but starting to pay off. :)
 
Grassfarmer you make a good point which is why I said it is more complicated than the simple example that I gave. My point was that the cows that everyone talks about are not always the cows that make you the most money. It obviously will help tremendously to know the cows history.
 
I tend to be dissappointed with purchased cows and bulls for that matter. Cows that perform here normally have daughters that do also. In that the bulls calves should be of greater value to myself.
 
Denny I've found the same thing over and over. That's why I'm so high on using this home-raised bull, since I have so many females closely related to him. I own his mother, I own his sire. On the dam's side, I saw her sire, and have 6 of his other daughters. I own her mother, which I also have 3 other daughters from.

On the sire side, I had his mother here on shares for 3 years, and have 2 other daughters of hers. I have a paternal sister to the bull, and she's one of my very best cows, and I have several daughters of the bull in production as well.

If there was ever a sure thing in genetics, it ought to be this bull, and the best part is that he's home-raised. :wink:
 
A good cow is a bred cow with a good disposition at calving time. She is interested as you tag her calf yet she isn't trying to eat your lunch. A good cow mothers that calf and is producing enough milk to ween off a 600 -650 lb calf and then be bred when preg checking is done in the fall.

JMHO
 

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