TimH said:
Econ101- "You bring a good point. If you do have to bring in $1.99 shoulder roast then there would be less shoulder roast to sell. If you have less shoulder roast, it costs more for the shoulder roast you do have. Then you get more money for it. That brings the producer more money. If packers bring in imported lean trim then you pay the Aussies or someone else for that lean trim and you don't make a dime on it. The packer does. "
Are you saying, that if the packers can sell a shoulder roast for more than $1.99, that some of that extra value would be passed on to the producer???
I guarentee you one thing, Tim: If there are no imports, you will get more money than if there were imports. This even includes the trim argument. Packers would have to pay you more money for your cattle to satisfy the market for beef. I think the packers are as opportunist businessmen and if they did not have to pass on a dollar to the packer they wouldn't. They would just as soon keep it themselves. Do you know any different?
Do you make more money when there are fewer cattle to satisfy consumption or more? Agman's quick quote on that is that for every 1% increase in supply, the price goes down 1.5%. The reverse is true without market manipulation.