$3.00+ Corn is a coming!

[CattleCo]

Add to the report below....68% of the crops in Illinois are FAIR to POOR!!!


The latest update of drought conditions in the U.S. reported that "Hot, dry weather led to D2 expansion across northern and central Illinois and D1 expansion into southeastern Illinois and southeastern Iowa. Month-to-date rainfall across central and northern Illinois was less than an inch, and this follows the state's third driest March-May period in the past 111 years of record keeping. USDA reported that 93 percent of Illinois' farmland was short topsoil moisture. To the east, D1 drought continued across northern Indiana, and D0 expanded across eastern Kentucky and southern Ohio."

 

[the chief]

Well, cattleco, your report is correct but I doubt if your prediction of $3 corn is. They have been beating the market lately because Iowa is in really good shape with rainfall and the best market beater of all, USDA, just reported how much grain we have on hand. Thanks guys, for thinking of the producer, AGAIN.

Where I live, we had 1" in April, 0.8" in May and 0.8" in June. Just the other night, a storm came through and some people near us got 0.3" and some got an inch. We had nada. However, along with their rain, they got high winds and hail. I saw one field completely shredded and laying flat on the ground. So all things considered, I'm happy.

I've seen corn that is 2' high and fired yellow (on july 1?) and corn that looks pretty respectable. I had a neighbor say that on his trip to PA, it all looks dry.

Now, cattleco, I agree corn should be closer to $3, but I really doubt if it will happen. Too many people LOVE low prices. And they have more influence in the marketplace than any of us producers do.

Have a great day.

 

[Sandhusker]

I remember last year at this time they were talking $4 corn - and it ended up below $2. Agman was talking good corn prices. You can't get too excited either way about any report. For every bull is a bear and ultimately it depends on fickle Mother Nature.

 

[agman]

I remember last year at this time they were talking $4 corn - and it ended up below $2. Agman was talking good corn prices. You can't get too excited either way about any report. For every bull is a bear and ultimately it depends on fickle Mother Nature.

I said the ridsk was to the upside due to our carryover position. Any crop problems could lead to a sharp advance. Defining risk and forecasting a price are two different items. I did not say a significant advance would occur. Someone by teeh name of Cattleco made some pretty outrageous statements last year.

This year Illinois is in the midst of the worst drought since 1988 when their corn yields declined 50% from the previous year. Illinois produced 2.0 billion bushels. At the current price the market is fully pricing a 10.95 billion crop. Further damage must occur to take this markt higher, especially with ending stocks much higher this year.

 

[the chief]

Saw the Ill. Dept. of ag newsletter today and the percentages of poor and fair highly outweigh good and excellent. Very little excellent in fact.

Pontiac area has has 1.28" since May 1. Highest total in two months was about 3+. That's not much when you have 10-15 mph winds every day and 90+ temps.

I haven't mowed grass (except toknock down some weeds) in four weeks now. Not complaining about that, just showing how dry it is.

No rain in site till scattered T-storms Thursday.

Have a safe Independence day, all. Hope everyone remembers how our forefathers fought to KEEP us free. As I look at today's leaders, I'm not sure they have the same thoughts in mind.
:roll:

 

[CattleCo]

I wonder how cocky the cow/calf boys will be when 5 wt calves get a 9 in front of them or maybe an 8? I cannot believe so many so called knowledgible folks in this industry think this market is "bullet proof"! I can tell you this.........when this market drops it will have little to do with supply. Iowa may look good in spots, but we are a LONG way from the crop in the bin. As for USDA if you believe all those big carryover numbers you will buy into anything. We have a fair amount of carryover, but it is not of the magnitude USDA is stating. Remember, we have a lot more things affecting this Cattle deal than SUPPLY! I predict we will see Canadian Beef promoted as the best and safest you can buy before this game plays out. I will also go out on a limb that mandatory BSE testing of all BEEF will happen....that will be a lot cheaper than Mandated Individual Food Animal ID. I will go out on another limb and say producer/premise ID and food animals tagged to reflect the place of origin may work so well we will NEVER see a government mandated Individual ID Program......All you private data WAREHOUSES THAT HAVE DOLLAR SIGNS IN YOUR EYES CAN CHEW ON THIS ONE OVER THE 4TH!!!
Have a great 4th and don't light a SHORT FUSE!!! :lol: :lol: :roll:

 

[Sandhusker]

Agman, " said the ridsk was to the upside due to our carryover position. Any crop problems could lead to a sharp advance. Defining risk and forecasting a price are two different items. I did not say a significant advance would occur. Someone by teeh name of Cattleco made some pretty outrageous statements last year. "

I'm talking about your position last year. You were bullish because you felt a good deal of plantings were done on poorer land that would yield little.

 

[Brad S]

Sandhusker,

I think I asked Agman about the land quality issue. I remember Agman's analysis last year to be exactly what he already indicated it was. Its hard to find better corn analysis than Agman's. Last year an amazing weather pattern raised a huge corn crop - and negative pressure on the market. We already knew Agman wasn't God.


We can pay $3 for corn and these calves will still be quite valuable, but for sure we've been eating off the corn farmer's plate for awhile. $2 diesel and $2 corn can't last, and we can still slip a little off these silly calf prices and be making plenty.

 

[PORKER]

Quote, Mandated Individual Food Animal ID. I will go out on another limb and say producer/premise ID and food animals tagged to reflect the place of origin may work so well we will NEVER see a government mandated Individual ID Program......All you private data WAREHOUSES THAT HAVE DOLLAR SIGNS IN YOUR EYES CAN CHEW ON THIS ONE OVER THE 4TH!!!

https://www.scoringag.com/Public/sample1.cfm has the reasons and the technology Sandhusker whether it corn or cattle.

 

[agman]

I wonder how cocky the cow/calf boys will be when 5 wt calves get a 9 in front of them or maybe an 8? I cannot believe so many so called knowledgible folks in this industry think this market is "bullet proof"! I can tell you this.........when this market drops it will have little to do with supply. Iowa may look good in spots, but we are a LONG way from the crop in the bin. As for USDA if you believe all those big carryover numbers you will buy into anything. We have a fair amount of carryover, but it is not of the magnitude USDA is stating. Remember, we have a lot more things affecting this Cattle deal than SUPPLY! I predict we will see Canadian Beef promoted as the best and safest you can buy before this game plays out. I will also go out on a limb that mandatory BSE testing of all BEEF will happen....that will be a lot cheaper than Mandated Individual Food Animal ID. I will go out on another limb and say producer/premise ID and food animals tagged to reflect the place of origin may work so well we will NEVER see a government mandated Individual ID Program......All you private data WAREHOUSES THAT HAVE DOLLAR SIGNS IN YOUR EYES CAN CHEW ON THIS ONE OVER THE 4TH!!!
Have a great 4th and don't light a SHORT FUSE!!! :lol: :lol: :roll:

What shred of evidence do you have that the USDA ending stocks totals are incorrect? What dat analysis and syrveys do you conduct to suggest they are wrong? Explain your statement.

 

[Mike]

I wonder how cocky the cow/calf boys will be when 5 wt calves get a 9 in front of them or maybe an 8? I cannot believe so many so called knowledgible folks in this industry think this market is "bullet proof"! I can tell you this.........when this market drops it will have little to do with supply. Iowa may look good in spots, but we are a LONG way from the crop in the bin. As for USDA if you believe all those big carryover numbers you will buy into anything. We have a fair amount of carryover, but it is not of the magnitude USDA is stating. Remember, we have a lot more things affecting this Cattle deal than SUPPLY! I predict we will see Canadian Beef promoted as the best and safest you can buy before this game plays out. I will also go out on a limb that mandatory BSE testing of all BEEF will happen....that will be a lot cheaper than Mandated Individual Food Animal ID. I will go out on another limb and say producer/premise ID and food animals tagged to reflect the place of origin may work so well we will NEVER see a government mandated Individual ID Program......All you private data WAREHOUSES THAT HAVE DOLLAR SIGNS IN YOUR EYES CAN CHEW ON THIS ONE OVER THE 4TH!!!
Have a great 4th and don't light a SHORT FUSE!!! :lol: :lol: :roll:

What shred of evidence do you have that the USDA ending stocks totals are incorrect? What dat analysis and syrveys do you conduct to suggest they are wrong? Explain your statement.

I had to throw this in agman. Remember when we were talking about Billy Sol Estes soybeans, oil, etc.? Cattleco may know about more of this going on. :roll: :wink:

 

[PORKER]

Whoa CattleCo,.QUOTE that will be a lot cheaper than Mandated Individual Food Animal ID. I will go out on another limb and say producer/premise ID and food animals tagged to reflect the place of origin may work so well we will NEVER see a government mandated Individual ID Program......

BSE tests cost $14-$20 AND NO RFID button costs that much and the databases the hold those cattle ID's only cost $0.25 anywhere in the world for a producer on the www.scoringag.com database.By the way the Premises ID cost nothing Too.We will still have a gov. mandated M'ID as Homeland Security demands that APHIS does it and FDA is knocking on your door.

For that matter CattleCo why don't you just click on the OPEN AN ACCOUNT and sign in so you won't have to use your CattleCo.com HERD DATA software anymore.
Finnally figured out why you have been so uptight about the wwwscoringag.com and their web-based software.They just have something better than you do,but don't worry ,you can still sell real estate on your web page. I'am not going to change as I love working with my Nokia phone and SSI cattle and crop records in the field or where ever I am at.

 

[CattleCo]

Keep buying into the SS BS . If it works for you great..............but it is not for me and a lot of folks I know. Not one private data warehouse has made a dime of profit yet! Personally, I don't need them, I don't want them, and I wont use them......period. I base my reason for the less than reported carryover on the fact we have had a pretty good demand for ethanol productions, heavier cattle weights,( big cattle eat a lot of feed!) other food animals are consuming a lot of corn. I am saying this government wants a "cheap food" policy and they will do what ever it takes to make it happen. Anyway we will know about the end of October or a litle sooner who is right. A for the BEEF deal....and BSE testing....they will or may have already developed a test that will be cost effective, fast and reliable.

 

[CattleCo]

Brad,
Thank you for stating the truth!
"We can pay $3 for corn and these calves will still be quite valuable, but for sure we've been eating off the corn farmer's plate for awhile. $2 diesel and $2 corn can't last, and we can still slip a little off these silly calf prices and be making plenty."

We are about to see what Beef demand really is...4th of uly weekend! If the BEEF does not move look for packers to rock the market. If it goes well then we may be able to hold these prices for awhile. $2.50+ gas and higher diesel does not make the demand for BEEF increase. Let's not forget the interest rates are creeping up. Seems Mr Greenspan thinks everyone is doing well :roll:

 

[agman]

I wonder how cocky the cow/calf boys will be when 5 wt calves get a 9 in front of them or maybe an 8? I cannot believe so many so called knowledgible folks in this industry think this market is "bullet proof"! I can tell you this.........when this market drops it will have little to do with supply. Iowa may look good in spots, but we are a LONG way from the crop in the bin. As for USDA if you believe all those big carryover numbers you will buy into anything. We have a fair amount of carryover, but it is not of the magnitude USDA is stating. Remember, we have a lot more things affecting this Cattle deal than SUPPLY! I predict we will see Canadian Beef promoted as the best and safest you can buy before this game plays out. I will also go out on a limb that mandatory BSE testing of all BEEF will happen....that will be a lot cheaper than Mandated Individual Food Animal ID. I will go out on another limb and say producer/premise ID and food animals tagged to reflect the place of origin may work so well we will NEVER see a government mandated Individual ID Program......All you private data WAREHOUSES THAT HAVE DOLLAR SIGNS IN YOUR EYES CAN CHEW ON THIS ONE OVER THE 4TH!!!
Have a great 4th and don't light a SHORT FUSE!!! :lol: :lol: :roll:

What shred of evidence do you have that the USDA ending stocks totals are incorrect? What dat analysis and syrveys do you conduct to suggest they are wrong? Explain your statement.

I had to throw this in agman. Remember when we were talking about Billy Sol Estes soybeans, oil, etc.? Cattleco may know about more of this going on. :roll: :wink:

I am quite certain he at least thinks so!!!!!!

 

[Anonymous]

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but I also remember about this time last year that CattleCo was in a chicken little mode of "the sky is falling". Say it often enough and eventually it will prove out.

I would rather be an optimist.

 

[agman]

Keep buying into the SS BS . If it works for you great..............but it is not for me and a lot of folks I know. Not one private data warehouse has made a dime of profit yet! Personally, I don't need them, I don't want them, and I wont use them......period. I base my reason for the less than reported carryover on the fact we have had a pretty good demand for ethanol productions, heavier cattle weights,( big cattle eat a lot of feed!) other food animals are consuming a lot of corn. I am saying this government wants a "cheap food" policy and they will do what ever it takes to make it happen. Anyway we will know about the end of October or a litle sooner who is right. A for the BEEF deal....and BSE testing....they will or may have already developed a test that will be cost effective, fast and reliable.

I can readily see you have provided thorough analysis! It is this very type of unsubstantiated opinion that misleads producers. The fact is you have neither analyzed the data thorougly and I am quite cedrtain you fail to have suffiicent cash contacts to substantiate your view All the factors you discuss have bben present in the past, ethanol usage, higher weights, and teh ending stocks have been correct. What changed now?

 

[Murgen]

If the consumer confidence in the US beef supply is lowered by RCALF's injunction later this month?, how will this effect the price of corn?

What's the ratio again, AGMAN?

 

[agman]

If the consumer confidence in the US beef supply is lowered by RCALF's injunction later this month?, how will this effect the price of corn?

What's the ratio again, AGMAN?

Domestic beef demand has been declining since March of 2004. I made many posts concerning this development. What is the cost? For each $1.00 reduction in per capita domestic spending on beef the beef industry will lose $295 million in income.

Once the trial begins all the BS from R-Calf and their beef loving bed-fellows will be replayed in the news. Only then will we all realize and suffer the cost of their misstatements and those of their alliance. Unfortunately, no matter the outcome of the trial the damage will be done.

 

[Murgen]

Once the trial begins all the BS from R-Calf and their beef loving bed-fellows will be replayed in the news. Only then will we all realize and suffer the cost of their misstatements and those of their alliance. Unfortunately, no matter the outcome of the trial the damage will be done.

Not sure how it works in the US, but can they withdraw their challenge of the rule? Better to save face then to be ridiculed later!

And how will lost export markets for the next seven years affect the markets? That is what RCALF has said should be done with a BSE herd right, no exports for 7 years, from last known case?