BRAVO ! Agman's corn analysis is the nuts

[Brad S]

If you remember Agman's 06 corn analysis from way back before the planting season, all the way through harvest, you've been privy to the best corn analysis in the industry. Brock Comodities had their producers sold out at $2.40. My family has been a Brock subscriberfor years, but I have seen Agman out call Brock for 4 years in a row, so this year I went with Agman's call ( I tried to save the family interests with me but they'd have none of it - I'd be in for some spicy gloating if the blood weren't soooo deep).

Closeouts - from extremely savy cattlemen - are running as high as neg $200 because they didn't manage corn costs. These aren't beginners losing $200/hd; they are proven cattlemen that relied on someone besides Agman for market savy.

 

[Anonymous]

Excellent Brad S.!

I'm glad Agman's research has helped you as much as it has helped myself and others.


~SH~

 

[Sandhusker]

I'm glad he hit 06 because he sure dropped the ball on 03.

 

[Anonymous]

Sandcheska: "I'm glad he hit 06 because he sure dropped the ball on 03."

Hahaha! As if you'd know that! Unlike you, Agman knows what variables can change market predictions. I suppose you thought he made a weather prediction huh? LOL!

Stay in your comfort zone of being a chronic bitcher Sandcheska, that's what you do best.


~SH~

 

[Sandhusker]

Sandcheska: "I'm glad he hit 06 because he sure dropped the ball on 03."

Hahaha! As if you'd know that! Unlike you, Agman knows what variables can change market predictions. I suppose you thought he made a weather prediction huh? LOL!

Stay in your comfort zone of being a chronic bitcher Sandcheska, that's what you do best.


~SH~

:roll: Grow up, Scotty.

 

[Anonymous]

Sandcheska,

So which way is it?

Is R-CALF's position that our firewalls are not adequate or that as Leo has stated, our beef is safe due to our firewalls?

Wonder if Leo's recent resignation would provide the answer?


~SH~

 

[Brad S]

I think the year you're citing we had a weather event that changed production, ie drought. The way Agman's analysis comes down is "X bushels = Y price. NO WEATHER PREDICTION! Obviously Agman can't know future weather events. All players should expect to watch weather events unfold and respond accordingly.

In 06, Agman showed we needed a record or near record harvest to even have marginal caryover. AM's position seems soo clear with the benefit of hindsight, but there was a time Brock sure didn't get it. If we'd have raised 12 billion corn, was Agman wrong? Hell no. Based upon Agman's analysis, I took long positions on sept and dec corn that spent several weeks out of the money (as corn harvest and funds distorted the picture). My positions were a straight hedge for corn needs to finnish cattle that were on grass, and even if I were beaten by the 5% chance of amazing corn yields, I was protected against the long chance we'd get what we got.

I suggest its a misunderstanding to go to Agman or any other guru for crystal ball reading, but its a good idea to set things up to profit from the likely at the expense of the unlikely.

 

[Jason]

Brad, glad to see you about.

I agree more feeders should hedge their feed prices.

Up here the barley run caught a lot of people off guard, myself included.

I saw a profit to sell extra grain and locked it in. I asked the broker if many feedlots had locked in their barley, and he told me almost all of them were on the cash market.

They still could have locked in at $3 but thought that was too far into the run. Cash barley is about $3.60

That extra 60 cents could be a tidy profit.

 

[Sandhusker]

I think the year you're citing we had a weather event that changed production, ie drought. The way Agman's analysis comes down is "X bushels = Y price. NO WEATHER PREDICTION! Obviously Agman can't know future weather events. All players should expect to watch weather events unfold and respond accordingly.

In 06, Agman showed we needed a record or near record harvest to even have marginal caryover. AM's position seems soo clear with the benefit of hindsight, but there was a time Brock sure didn't get it. If we'd have raised 12 billion corn, was Agman wrong? Hell no. Based upon Agman's analysis, I took long positions on sept and dec corn that spent several weeks out of the money (as corn harvest and funds distorted the picture). My positions were a straight hedge for corn needs to finnish cattle that were on grass, and even if I were beaten by the 5% chance of amazing corn yields, I was protected against the long chance we'd get what we got.

I suggest its a misunderstanding to go to Agman or any other guru for crystal ball reading, but its a good idea to set things up to profit from the likely at the expense of the unlikely.

If I would of taken a position based on Agman's analysis in 2003 or 2004- can't remember which one it was, my broker would of had my number on speed dial due to daily margin calls. I'm glad I didn't.

 

[Anonymous]

Sandcheska: "If I would of taken a position based on Agman's analysis in 2003 or 2004- can't remember which one it was, my broker would of had my number on speed dial due to daily margin calls. I'm glad I didn't."

What was Agman's analysis in 2003 or 2004?

Bring the analysis and show everyone how he was wrong AND WHY.

Let's see it you cheap talker!


~SH~

 

[Brad S]

I'm not sure of the year, but pretty sure of thi situation. As I remember, we had some serious moves due to drought. If you take an early position, you had damn well better respond to changing events - including lifting a long position in favor of an option when the weather goes bad.

 

[agman]

I think the year you're citing we had a weather event that changed production, ie drought. The way Agman's analysis comes down is "X bushels = Y price. NO WEATHER PREDICTION! Obviously Agman can't know future weather events. All players should expect to watch weather events unfold and respond accordingly.

In 06, Agman showed we needed a record or near record harvest to even have marginal caryover. AM's position seems soo clear with the benefit of hindsight, but there was a time Brock sure didn't get it. If we'd have raised 12 billion corn, was Agman wrong? Hell no. Based upon Agman's analysis, I took long positions on sept and dec corn that spent several weeks out of the money (as corn harvest and funds distorted the picture). My positions were a straight hedge for corn needs to finnish cattle that were on grass, and even if I were beaten by the 5% chance of amazing corn yields, I was protected against the long chance we'd get what we got.

I suggest its a misunderstanding to go to Agman or any other guru for crystal ball reading, but its a good idea to set things up to profit from the likely at the expense of the unlikely.

If I would of taken a position based on Agman's analysis in 2003 or 2004- can't remember which one it was, my broker would of had my number on speed dial due to daily margin calls. I'm glad I didn't.

Only an immature and uneducated junior loan officer such as yourself would make the charges you make. You once again show your total lack of any worthwhile knowledge.

If conditions change from dry to wet and perfect growing conditions develop why is it wrong to change one's opinion? Only one with limited knowledge, such as yourself, would stay committed to one view when a critical factor influencing production changes. Then again, with your limited knowledge you would not know what those many factors are that can alter production or price. If you were so good, at your age, you would not be a junior loan officer in a small country bank. Some larger bank or Ag entity would actually pay for your knowledge if you had anything worthwhile to offer them other than HINDSIGHT comments. They would even allow you to reside in your local community; the benefit of modern communications. I am pro country banks and have met many great bankers from that group. You just lack the knowledge of that criteria.

By default, you have implied with your snide remark, that you know what weather conditions will exist during the entire corn growing season. I am certain everyone reading this forum would be grateful for your FORESIGHT!

 

[Econ101]

Agman, predictions that change as you get closer to the event are liable to be right. Predictions made after the fact they are always right--unless you're SH.

 

[Texan]

Agman, predictions that change as you get closer to the event are liable to be right. Predictions made after the fact they are always right--unless you're SH.

I'm always eager to look at predictions from everyone that might have knowledge of the markets. That helps me make a more informed marketing decision.

Econ, would you mind giving us your predictions for the cattle markets for the next few months? In other words, what do you think we can expect from feeders and fats through May/June? I would also be interested to know what you think we will be looking at for a fed cattle market in September/October. Also, if you don't mind, share with us the reasons behind your analysis. Thanks.

 

[Jason]

Econ, would you mind giving us your predictions for the cattle markets for the next few months? In other words, what do you think we can expect from feeders and fats through May/June? I would also be interested to know what you think we will be looking at for a fed cattle market in September/October. Also, if you don't mind, share with us the reasons behind your analysis. Thanks.

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

 

[Sandhusker]

Agman, "If you were so good, at your age, you would not be a junior loan officer in a small country bank."

I'm doing what I want where I want. I took a sizable pay cut to move back home - did it for my kids. Fortunes can be made quickly in the futures markets. If you were so hot, you would of made yours long ago and wouldn't be around here to define arrogance for us.

On Oct. 31, anybody can accurately predict what the price of corn will be on Nov. 1. Doing it on May 1 seperates the men from the boys. Anybody can watch the weather and adjust.

 

[Econ101]

Agman, predictions that change as you get closer to the event are liable to be right. Predictions made after the fact they are always right--unless you're SH.

I'm always eager to look at predictions from everyone that might have knowledge of the markets. That helps me make a more informed marketing decision.

Econ, would you mind giving us your predictions for the cattle markets for the next few months? In other words, what do you think we can expect from feeders and fats through May/June? I would also be interested to know what you think we will be looking at for a fed cattle market in September/October. Also, if you don't mind, share with us the reasons behind your analysis. Thanks.

If you want free advice, you will get what you pay for. I wouldn't give you any advice, texan, except to get out of the way.

 

[Texan]

If you want free advice, you will get what you pay for. I wouldn't give you any advice, texan, except to get out of the way.

That's about what I expected from you, ekon. Worth every bit as much as if you had made a market prediction. Just another example of your ignorance of the cattle business. :lol:

 

[Anonymous]

Sandcheska: "On Oct. 31, anybody can accurately predict what the price of corn will be on Nov. 1. Doing it on May 1 seperates the men from the boys. Anybody can watch the weather and adjust."

Who wouldn't watch the weather and adjust you moron? If you don't think Agman alreadys knows that you really are a popcorn vendor.

You actually think someone would look at ending corn stocks, look at planting predictions, look at weather predictions, AND NOT CHANGE WITH THE CHANGES IN WEATHER??

Gosh are you some kind of whiz bang analyst or what?

Lying King: "I wouldn't give you any advice, texan, except to get out of the way."

Texan, get this, this phony who calls himself econ. 101 is such an idiot that he actually said, "prices can't go up unless supplies come down". I couldn't believe what I just read so I asked him if he actually said that and he even admitted to it after the fact. Instead of "supply and demand", in his world it's "supply and supply". He didn't even know that demand could affect the market independent of supply. If he gives you advice to get out of the way, I'd heed that advice because that lumbering idiot would probably run you over as he drove off the bridge.


Lying King, rest assured, only a complete idiot would take any market advice from you.


To the topic, I know a young banker who happens to be a son of a fellow mason with you Sandcheska (LD). You might ask him at the next meeting what his son thinks of Agman's marketing advice. TD has impressed the hell out of his employers with Agman's data. If you weren't such a blamer maybe you could learn something.


~SH~

 

[Brad S]

Sandhusker, I wouldn't make any assumptions about AM's wealth, but I consider his input here as altruistic. What AM is good at is what most producers are worst at. Cattlemen already have to wear so many hats to prosper, and the future belongs to those that manage risk - yet another skill.

I know you find AM's delivery offputting, but I think anybody could get abit short having to prove a gift horse is sound

I hope I never suggested or used the term "prediction." Agman offers analysis, gypsies offer prediction. No one knows the weather, but if you could tell AM the weather he'd tell you the price. Agman gave me market analysis for 06 corn after the weather was prety much set, but don't act like this analysis is obvious at that point. Brock's analysis proves this.