Cattleman: "I find it interesting that SH all along in other threads was pointing out that there was a shortage of cattle in the US and this is what accounted for the record high prices in the US...I agree.....but now he is turning around and trying to include ALL the losses associated with the plants running at 35% because of the closed Canadian border!!!!!!"
Bullsh*t!
YOU SHOW ME WHERE I EVER SAID THAT A SHORTAGE OF CATTLE IN THE U.S. ACCOUNTED FOR THE RECORD HIGH PRICES IN THE U.S.
I NEVER SAID THAT!
If you are going to critique what I have stated, BRING MY QUOTE so it cannot be taken out of context.
I don't know where the heck you came up with that but it's simply not true.
The reduced supplies is only part of the record high price equation and I understand that very well.
THE PRIMARY DRIVER IN OUR RECORD HIGH CATTLE PRICES WAS THE INCREASE IN CONSUMER DEMAND FOR BEEF along with a decrease in domestic supplies and a decrease in Canadian imports!
R-CULT is the one who is misleading the producers by lying to them about the impact of Canadian imports on our markets. Look at last years cattle prices with a closed Canadian border. Look at this years cattle prices with an opened Canadian border. WHO'S MISLEADING WHO???
The answer is obvious!
NOR WAS I TRYING TO CREDIT ALL THE NW PLANT LOSSES TO A CLOSED CANADIAN BORDER. Yes, a reduction in Canadian cattle was the primary driver PARTICULARLY IN THE NW where those plants relied on Canadian cattle for 25% of their plant needs. There was also a reduction in domestic supplies that played a role as well. Heifer retention was a supply factor. Loss of exports was a demand factor.
I posted all the reasons given by Tyson and they did not just mention a reduction in Canadian cattle either so how you derived this from anything I have stated is beyond me.
THE ONLY ISSUE HERE IS WHETHER THE PROFITS AT THE LAKESIDE PLANT OFFSET THE LOSSES AT THE BOISE AND PASCO PLANTS. NOTHING ELSE!
Don't put words into my mouth or take my statements out of context.
Normally, (pre BSE) Canadian imports of beef and live cattle constituted 10% of our U.S. beef consumption. That is a fact!
As a rule of thumb, every 1% change in supply yields about a 1 1/2% change in the price of fat cattle IF ALL OTHER FACTORS REMAINED THE SAME.
5% reduction in supply by the elimination of Canadian live cattle imports, "IF" Canadian boxed beef imports were still coming in as normal, would create about a 7.5% increase in the price of fat cattle IF ALL OTHER FACTORS REMAINED THE SAME. Now consider the reduction in domestic supplies and a slight decrease in consumer demand from the highs of last year and you have the current cattle market.
Nowhere did I ever say anything to the contrary.
Rancher: "I read that Tyson lost more to loss of export markets than they did to lack of Canadian cattle."
Guess where a lot of those cattle that were exported to Japan came from????
CANADA!
Guess where Creekstone's primary Japanese export supply was going to come from????
CANADA!
Like it or not, that's just a fact! Canadian cattle as a whole grade very well.
Yes rancher, the loss of our export markets played a role but all you have to do is look at Tyson's profitability in relation to our export markets and you can see that Tyson is back in the black again WITHOUT THE JAPANESE EXPORT MARKET.
What does that tell you rancher?
You cannot isolate a single factor, you have to look at all of the factors that contribute to our markets and all the factors that contribute to packer profitability.
Don't just R-CALF this by looking at the part of the equation that happens to support your bias.
Fedup 2,
Since you seem to be unbiased, how about I give you the phone number for the Tyson representative that I talked to, via PM, and you can ask him if the profits in Lakeside were enough to offset the losses in Boise and Pasco and report back what you find out?
I would love for someone to confirm this.
How about it Fedup?
Good information BTW and I appreciate your apparent objectivity on this topic.
~SH~