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GET OUT YOUR CRYSTAL BALL AGMAN
- Thread starter HAY MAKER
- Start date
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agman
Well-known member
HAY MAKER said:And tell me when OTM cattle are crossing the border,and how it will effect the markets..................good luck
I do not know the answer to that question. But I do have serious reservations about OTM cattle. The science is not as clear as it is on UTM in my opinion. I have stated at meetings and to my clients I would oppose the importation of OTM's unless more evidence of safety is provided. Sorry that I did not get to your question sooner.
All the more reason for Canada to push for mandatory BSE testing of OTMs.agman said:HAY MAKER said:And tell me when OTM cattle are crossing the border,and how it will effect the markets..................good luck
I do not know the answer to that question. But I do have serious reservations about OTM cattle. The science is not as clear as it is on UTM in my opinion. I have stated at meetings and to my clients I would oppose the importation of OTM's unless more evidence of safety is provided. Sorry that I did not get to your question sooner.
rkaiser
Well-known member
You got it Bill. After all Rcalf and Agman are on the same side on this one.
rkaiser said:You got it Bill. After all Rcalf and Agman are on the same side on this one.
Its about time,I knew there were some good in that boy..........good luck
PS Thanks agman,I appreciate your honesty,I wonder how many "OTM" cattle are backed up in canada waiting to go south,must be a helluva lot of em because the push is on....................good luck
S.S.A.P.
Well-known member
agman said:HAY MAKER said:And tell me when OTM cattle are crossing the border,and how it will effect the markets..................good luck
I do not know the answer to that question. But I do have serious reservations about OTM cattle. The science is not as clear as it is on UTM in my opinion. I have stated at meetings and to my clients I would oppose the importation of OTM's unless more evidence of safety is provided. Sorry that I did not get to your question sooner.
Agman, in respect to supporting OTM imports, what would you consider to be more evidence of safety?
Jason
Well-known member
HAY MAKER said:Its about time,I knew there were some good in that boy..........good luck
PS Thanks agman,I appreciate your honesty,I wonder how many "OTM" cattle are backed up in canada waiting to go south,must be a helluva lot of em because the push is on....................good luck
Interesting how you accept Agman's comment when it seems to agree with your agenda.
I doubt there is much risk with OTM cattle, but that aside, there is not a backlog of older cattle in Canada. Cow prices have climbed and the domestic market is taking the grind.
The reason the push is on to open the border to OTM is for breeding stock, and to normalize trade as much as possible.
If the border were to open before year end, there would be some movement in cows to American plants, just because the price difference is enough to make some jump through hoops to get it. However the same trucks that are in short supply to haul UTM cattle would have to be used to haul whatever has the better margin. If cows move maybe calves would slow.
All other factors being equal, I think cow prices would hold within a few pennies in the States if the border opens with the same limits I mentioned.
If some plants are starving for cows, they might be able to stay in business easier and keep prices for cows higher with a more stable supply. If they are swimming in cows they will pull their bids down. Simple as that.
Jason said:HAY MAKER said:Its about time,I knew there were some good in that boy..........good luck
PS Thanks agman,I appreciate your honesty,I wonder how many "OTM" cattle are backed up in canada waiting to go south,must be a helluva lot of em because the push is on....................good luck
Interesting how you accept Agman's comment when it seems to agree with your agenda.
I doubt there is much risk with OTM cattle, but that aside, there is not a backlog of older cattle in Canada. Cow prices have climbed and the domestic market is taking the grind.
The reason the push is on to open the border to OTM is for breeding stock, and to normalize trade as much as possible.
If the border were to open before year end, there would be some movement in cows to American plants, just because the price difference is enough to make some jump through hoops to get it. However the same trucks that are in short supply to haul UTM cattle would have to be used to haul whatever has the better margin. If cows move maybe calves would slow.
All other factors being equal, I think cow prices would hold within a few pennies in the States if the border opens with the same limits I mentioned.
If some plants are starving for cows, they might be able to stay in business easier and keep prices for cows higher with a more stable supply. If they are swimming in cows they will pull their bids down. Simple as that.
About 900,000 head as of July,waiting to go south ,was what I heard..................good luck
PS that's alot of breeding cattle :wink:
Jason
Well-known member
You heard wrong. There is no way 900,000 head are waiting to go South, there wouldn't even be enough trucks to haul that many in 3 years.
Big Muddy rancher
Well-known member
agman said:HAY MAKER said:And tell me when OTM cattle are crossing the border,and how it will effect the markets..................good luck
I do not know the answer to that question. But I do have serious reservations about OTM cattle. The science is not as clear as it is on UTM in my opinion. I have stated at meetings and to my clients I would oppose the importation of OTM's unless more evidence of safety is provided. Sorry that I did not get to your question sooner.
Yes agman I would also like to know what evidenve of safety you are talking about.
The US and Canada have the same rateing for risk from the OIE . Are you concerned that the US is not handleing SRM's as carefully as Canada?
Seems there are times that when you give your honest opinion on an issue Agman, that you get ridiculed by some on both side of that issue. Many times one's honest opinion/numbers on something is not always the 'popular' opinion. I'm sure that there are many here, myself included, that appreciate your honest opinion vs the popular one. Thank you.
Could this be the same information source that told you that we had over a million calves and feeders poised at the line to flood and destroy your markets as soon as the border opened. When are you going to get a better source of information Haymaker. :wink:HAY MAKER said:Jason said:HAY MAKER said:Its about time,I knew there were some good in that boy..........good luck
PS Thanks agman,I appreciate your honesty,I wonder how many "OTM" cattle are backed up in canada waiting to go south,must be a helluva lot of em because the push is on....................good luck
Interesting how you accept Agman's comment when it seems to agree with your agenda.
I doubt there is much risk with OTM cattle, but that aside, there is not a backlog of older cattle in Canada. Cow prices have climbed and the domestic market is taking the grind.
The reason the push is on to open the border to OTM is for breeding stock, and to normalize trade as much as possible.
If the border were to open before year end, there would be some movement in cows to American plants, just because the price difference is enough to make some jump through hoops to get it. However the same trucks that are in short supply to haul UTM cattle would have to be used to haul whatever has the better margin. If cows move maybe calves would slow.
All other factors being equal, I think cow prices would hold within a few pennies in the States if the border opens with the same limits I mentioned.
If some plants are starving for cows, they might be able to stay in business easier and keep prices for cows higher with a more stable supply. If they are swimming in cows they will pull their bids down. Simple as that.
About 900,000 head as of July,waiting to go south ,was what I heard..................good luck
PS that's alot of breeding cattle :wink:
Big Muddy rancher
Well-known member
fedup2 said:Seems there are times that when you give your honest opinion on an issue Agman, that you get ridiculed by some on both side of that issue. Many times one's honest opinion/numbers on something is not always the 'popular' opinion. I'm sure that there are many here, myself included, that appreciate your honest opinion vs the popular one. Thank you.
So Fedup why don't you think OTM cattle should move south? Just so you don't feel left out because no one asks for your opinion.
BMR: "So Fedup why don't you think OTM cattle should move south? Just so you don't feel left out because no one asks for your opinion."
Thanks for asking BMR. When I vote in a local election, I feel its my duty to study all the issues/candidates that I will be voting on. If I am unfamiliar with an issue or candidate, I abstain from voting on that issue as I could unwittingly be supporting something that I would later regret.
You can call this a cop-out if you like, but I see many issues that people are firm about, based only on emotions. I do not know enough about this issue to have an informed opinion BMR.
20 years ago when I would occasionly crawl into a bottle of whisky, I would have been happy to give you an opinion on anything & everything.
I apologize for being of no help to you BMR.
Thanks for asking BMR. When I vote in a local election, I feel its my duty to study all the issues/candidates that I will be voting on. If I am unfamiliar with an issue or candidate, I abstain from voting on that issue as I could unwittingly be supporting something that I would later regret.
You can call this a cop-out if you like, but I see many issues that people are firm about, based only on emotions. I do not know enough about this issue to have an informed opinion BMR.
20 years ago when I would occasionly crawl into a bottle of whisky, I would have been happy to give you an opinion on anything & everything.
I apologize for being of no help to you BMR.
Big Muddy rancher
Well-known member
So Fedup is it wrong to ask for reasoning behind a opinion? How do you make your informed decisions?
First BMR, lets go back to your original question. "So Fedup why don't you think OTM cattle should move south?"
There is no where on this forum that I made this statement or even hinted it was my opinion! I should have corrected this right away. Are you assuming that this was my opinion because I thanked Agman for his honest response vs a popular response? He also did the same on Sandhusker's & SH's bet. I appreciated and thanked him for it.
Your next question: "So Fedup is it wrong to ask for reasoning behind a opinion".
An opinion without reasoning is worth nothing!
BMR: "How do you make your informed decisions?"
I read, I ask questions (even if I sound stupid, I ask anyway so I don't remain stupid) I try to keep an open mind and listen to both sides, not just the side I want to hear. When I reasearch something, I don't just look for things to back my initial thoughts or gut feelings.
I am not a stone cold robot BMR, I deal with emotions during certain issues also & am not above losing control. I do make a constant effort to control those emotions & treat others with respect.
The toughest part of communicating on a forum vs looking someone in the eyes, they cannot see whether you are grinning, scowling, indifferent, or whatever. I also notice everyones reading comprehension is at different levels. Most on here are so used to having their posts dissected
and torn apart, that you begin to suspect any quesions or comments as if you are being set-up for something. There should be different thoughts on every topic & not herd/pack mentality. Anyway, thanks for asking.
There is no where on this forum that I made this statement or even hinted it was my opinion! I should have corrected this right away. Are you assuming that this was my opinion because I thanked Agman for his honest response vs a popular response? He also did the same on Sandhusker's & SH's bet. I appreciated and thanked him for it.
Your next question: "So Fedup is it wrong to ask for reasoning behind a opinion".
An opinion without reasoning is worth nothing!
BMR: "How do you make your informed decisions?"
I read, I ask questions (even if I sound stupid, I ask anyway so I don't remain stupid) I try to keep an open mind and listen to both sides, not just the side I want to hear. When I reasearch something, I don't just look for things to back my initial thoughts or gut feelings.
I am not a stone cold robot BMR, I deal with emotions during certain issues also & am not above losing control. I do make a constant effort to control those emotions & treat others with respect.
The toughest part of communicating on a forum vs looking someone in the eyes, they cannot see whether you are grinning, scowling, indifferent, or whatever. I also notice everyones reading comprehension is at different levels. Most on here are so used to having their posts dissected
and torn apart, that you begin to suspect any quesions or comments as if you are being set-up for something. There should be different thoughts on every topic & not herd/pack mentality. Anyway, thanks for asking.
Canadian Press
EDMONTON, Alberta - Canadian cattle producers must be prepared to wait even longer for the United States border to fully reopen to normal trade, industry experts say.
There was hope the U.S. Department of Agriculture would publish a new rule this fall that would pave the way for renewed shipments of older cattle and breeding stock starting next year.
Now the Canadian Cattlemen's Association and other groups are warning producers not to expect the border to fully reopen until some time in 2007 four years after mad cow disease was discovered in an Alberta cow.
Such a delay would hit the wallets of cattle producers across the country, especially people in the dairy and beef breeding business.
"A lot of us won't be here by then," says Jon Walker Sr. from his dairy cattle breeding operation near Aylmer, Ontario.
"We always fed between 1,500 and 2,000 head. I think we have 300 now, and I wish I didn't have them."
Feeling the pinch
The Canadian Livestock Genetics Association estimates the continued closure is costing the breeding industries about $300 million per year in lost sales.
Beef producers with cattle older than 30 months of age also will feel the pinch.
There were more than 900,000 surplus OTM cattle across the country as of last July, according to Statistics Canada. While some of those will be processed by Canadian meat plants, aging animals will swell the national herd.
Why the continued delay in fully reopening the border?
Industry experts say USDA wants to be extra careful in developing the new trade rule to ensure it can withstand lawsuits from protectionist groups such as R-CALF USA.
In the courts
Earlier this year, R-CALF, which represents about 18,000 American ranchers, went to court and temporarily derailed USDA's rule that eventually led to the border reopening in July to Canadian cattle younger than 30 months of age.
While that trade continues, the case still is before the courts.
"USDA is very aware of the fact that R-CALF will probably direct litigation at this new rule and they are trying to make it as perfect as they can," says Darcy Davis, chairman of Alberta Beef Producers. "I think it is making them overly cautious."
Canada's push for the second rule is based on the same premise that supported the current rule that allowed the trade in young cattle to resume risk factors for bovine spongiform encephalopathy in Canada are no different than in the U.S.
John Masswohl, director of international relations for the Canadian Cattlemen's Association, says he expects USDA to conduct careful risk assessments before publishing its new rule, probably sometime next summer.
USDA then will have to set a comment period before making a decision on fully restoring the beef trade with Canada.
That response period could fall within the middle of U.S. congressional election campaigns next year.
"I really wouldn't be expecting to see a final comprehensive rule until early 2007," Masswohl says.
Lobbying the U.S.While producers are being warned to brace for the delay, Masswohl says the association is working hard to lobby the American food industry to speed up the process.
With some U.S. beef processing plants laying off staff or shutting down because of a shortage of supply, re-establishing the full cattle trade with Canada would make dollars and sense.
"We are talking with state cattle groups, state farm bureaus, restaurant associations, food manufacturers all down in the U.S.," he says.
"They will act when they realize it is in their best interest."
EDMONTON, Alberta - Canadian cattle producers must be prepared to wait even longer for the United States border to fully reopen to normal trade, industry experts say.
There was hope the U.S. Department of Agriculture would publish a new rule this fall that would pave the way for renewed shipments of older cattle and breeding stock starting next year.
Now the Canadian Cattlemen's Association and other groups are warning producers not to expect the border to fully reopen until some time in 2007 four years after mad cow disease was discovered in an Alberta cow.
Such a delay would hit the wallets of cattle producers across the country, especially people in the dairy and beef breeding business.
"A lot of us won't be here by then," says Jon Walker Sr. from his dairy cattle breeding operation near Aylmer, Ontario.
"We always fed between 1,500 and 2,000 head. I think we have 300 now, and I wish I didn't have them."
Feeling the pinch
The Canadian Livestock Genetics Association estimates the continued closure is costing the breeding industries about $300 million per year in lost sales.
Beef producers with cattle older than 30 months of age also will feel the pinch.
There were more than 900,000 surplus OTM cattle across the country as of last July, according to Statistics Canada. While some of those will be processed by Canadian meat plants, aging animals will swell the national herd.
Why the continued delay in fully reopening the border?
Industry experts say USDA wants to be extra careful in developing the new trade rule to ensure it can withstand lawsuits from protectionist groups such as R-CALF USA.
In the courts
Earlier this year, R-CALF, which represents about 18,000 American ranchers, went to court and temporarily derailed USDA's rule that eventually led to the border reopening in July to Canadian cattle younger than 30 months of age.
While that trade continues, the case still is before the courts.
"USDA is very aware of the fact that R-CALF will probably direct litigation at this new rule and they are trying to make it as perfect as they can," says Darcy Davis, chairman of Alberta Beef Producers. "I think it is making them overly cautious."
Canada's push for the second rule is based on the same premise that supported the current rule that allowed the trade in young cattle to resume risk factors for bovine spongiform encephalopathy in Canada are no different than in the U.S.
John Masswohl, director of international relations for the Canadian Cattlemen's Association, says he expects USDA to conduct careful risk assessments before publishing its new rule, probably sometime next summer.
USDA then will have to set a comment period before making a decision on fully restoring the beef trade with Canada.
That response period could fall within the middle of U.S. congressional election campaigns next year.
"I really wouldn't be expecting to see a final comprehensive rule until early 2007," Masswohl says.
Lobbying the U.S.While producers are being warned to brace for the delay, Masswohl says the association is working hard to lobby the American food industry to speed up the process.
With some U.S. beef processing plants laying off staff or shutting down because of a shortage of supply, re-establishing the full cattle trade with Canada would make dollars and sense.
"We are talking with state cattle groups, state farm bureaus, restaurant associations, food manufacturers all down in the U.S.," he says.
"They will act when they realize it is in their best interest."
Big Muddy rancher
Well-known member
Seems there are times that when you give your honest opinion on an issue Agman, that you get ridiculed by some on both side of that issue. Many times one's honest opinion/numbers on something is not always the 'popular' opinion. I'm sure that there are many here, myself included, that appreciate your honest opinion vs the popular one. Thank you.
Fedup you posted this after I asked Agman what his reason were for thinking OTM should or would not move south.
Since you interjected I asked you mistakingly thinking you have a informed opinion. My mistake. :cowboy:
Fedup you posted this after I asked Agman what his reason were for thinking OTM should or would not move south.
Since you interjected I asked you mistakingly thinking you have a informed opinion. My mistake. :cowboy:
