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Pertinent question for those having a crystal ball

In a normal economy the cattle market would look fine.

This is not a normal economy, and the thinks you expect to jump up and bite you never seem to. It's the thing that hit you out of the blue that get us everytime.
 
Larrry said:
In a normal economy the cattle market would look fine.

This is not a normal economy, and the thinks you expect to jump up and bite you never seem to. It's the thing that hit you out of the blue that get us everytime.
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the gass cattle guys around me that bought steers last spring told me they made a $100/head this summer. I thought really that hay you fed last spring, the property taxes, the fence repairs, the fuel used, salt and riding. my bet is they differance in checks was a $100/head.
 
burnt, gcreekrch, Soapweed - Thanks guys! ...means a lot!!! I know I don't inspire you guys a fraction of how much you guys inspire me!!! I did this same thing wondering how people made it buying $5,000 bulls on one of my own threads. :oops: I have a lot to learn to say the least!!!
 
I am feeling a bit more optomistic than most. I was on the phone this morning with a customer from IL. She told me that they have gotten 6 inches of rain since Isaak. It was scattered out over a while. I think this same storm came up and covered MO and parts of KS, and the states south and east of there. She told me her grass came back strong, they planted oats and Rye and it is up and will have great fall grazing. I know MO has really sold stock and will most likely be wanting to restock next spring. Especially if they get a little more moisture. If NE, WY, and KS can get some moisture over the fall, winter, and spring, look out, these prices can and will get WILD!
 
It is a confusing time. With new moisture in some areas that were basically cleaned out of cows, and the latest round of Quantitative Easing by your fed (electioneering or trying to hold interest rates down), there may be a big boost to the market yet post election. I am sure there will be cheap money around, but it may not be real. Very uncertain times. I would guess risk management may be more important than cash flow and ultimate price at this point.
Having been dried out a time or two, and very blessed with moisture this year, it always has made sense here to clean out the cowherd and keep only the best. The adage about feeding your way out of a drought is too true. FWIW.
 
I am also optimistic. I think good times are just ahead.

He who takes no risks never gets ahead. Holding things together is a guarentee that the next generation will fail.
 
Doug Thorson said:
I am also optimistic. I think good times are just ahead.

He who takes no risks never gets ahead. Holding things together is a guarentee that the next generation will fail.
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But holding things together is sometimes the best option short-term to insure long term success. :wink:
 
We have had 5.25" since the 1st of the month and have been planting rye grass like crazy. It's been in a week and today you can row it. If this part of the country gets moisture yes it will restock but not to the numbers it was. I say if a guy sold 33 head he may be able to replace them with 11-20 head when things get going. For the guy selling that's not all bad though. . .
 
In this area everyone panicked and three weeks ago small alfalfa bales were selling for $12.00 @ at the local sale barn.

Then we were getting good rain and last Saturday you could get all the good alfalfa you wanted for $5.00 @ and good grass hay for $1.50.

It was the largest amount of hay I have ever seen at that sale barn.
 
George said:
In this area everyone panicked and three weeks ago small alfalfa bales were selling for $12.00 @ at the local sale barn.

Then we were getting good rain and last Saturday you could get all the good alfalfa you wanted for $5.00 @ and good grass hay for $1.50.

It was the largest amount of hay I have ever seen at that sale barn.
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$12 has been the norm here all summer long. I've seen $15 advertised.
 
leanin' H said:
Doug Thorson said:
I am also optimistic. I think good times are just ahead.

He who takes no risks never gets ahead. Holding things together is a guarentee that the next generation will fail.
Click to expand...

But holding things together is sometimes the best option short-term to insure long term success. :wink:
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i would agree.

it's easy to stay positive as long as you ignore all the signs. :wink:
 
I must either be confident or have went crazy, I bought a pair of overshoes yesterday.

What I meant by the holding things together comment is if all you ever look at is "it is too expensive and bad times are just around the corner" you will never get anywhere because expansion almost never pencils out and the times when some make a whole lot of money is because they did the opposite of what everyone else did, even if it doesn't pencil.
 
Doug Thorson said:
I must either be confident or have went crazy, I bought a pair of overshoes yesterday.

What I meant by the holding things together comment is if all you ever look at is "it is too expensive and bad times are just around the corner" you will never get anywhere because expansion almost never pencils out and the times when some make a whole lot of money is because they did the opposite of what everyone else did, even if it doesn't pencil.
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I guess you would have to say there is a happy medium. I have expanded and still do but on the same thought you have to remember the eighties when there was never going to be asnother poor day. A lot of those expanders back then lost it all.
Like Kenny Rogers said, you got to know when to holdem and when to foldem.
 
Larrry said:
Doug Thorson said:
I must either be confident or have went crazy, I bought a pair of overshoes yesterday.

What I meant by the holding things together comment is if all you ever look at is "it is too expensive and bad times are just around the corner" you will never get anywhere because expansion almost never pencils out and the times when some make a whole lot of money is because they did the opposite of what everyone else did, even if it doesn't pencil.
Click to expand...

I guess you would have to say there is a happy medium. I have expanded and still do but on the same thought you have to remember the eighties when there was never going to be asnother poor day. A lot of those expanders back then lost it all.
Like Kenny Rogers said, you got to know when to holdem and when to foldem.
Click to expand...

It is better to love a short girl than to have never loved a tall. :-)
 

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